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Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 06:24
by Richard
Could today be the drought breaker for my area, like Mike Ive not planed any work today
Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 29 Oct 2019

Issued at: 8:00pm Monday 28 Oct 2019

Cold air at upper levels and surface troughs affect eastern parts of New Zealand. During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over the Canterbury Plains and foothills, and a moderate risk for Hawkes Bay from about Hastings northwards. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 15mm per hour and small hail. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area including eastern parts of Otago, the Canterbury High Country, the east of Marlborough, the south of Wairarapa and Wellington, and the remainder of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.

No other thunderstorms or severe convection expected over New Zealand during this period.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 07:36
by NZstorm
The set up is lacking a E/NE today. There is a southerly kicking in around the middle of the day and that could be the best time for convergence.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 07:47
by Richard
Not a lot of change on this mornings update from the MetService
Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 29 Oct 2019

Issued at: 7:34am Tuesday 29 Oct 2019

Cold air at upper levels and surface troughs affect eastern parts of New Zealand. During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in North Otago, over the Canterbury Plains and foothills, and a moderate risk for Hawkes Bay from about Hastings northwards. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 15mm per hour and small hail. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area including eastern Dunedin, the Canterbury High Country, the east of Marlborough, the south of Wairarapa and Wellington, and the remainder of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 07:48
by Richard
NZstorm wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 07:36 The set up is lacking a E/NE today. There is a southerly kicking in around the middle of the day and that could be the best time for convergence.
Has been blowing a NW till about an hour ago, died out now which is needed

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 08:41
by mikestormchaser
NZstorm wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 07:36 The set up is lacking a E/NE today. There is a southerly kicking in around the middle of the day and that could be the best time for convergence.
It is indeed lacking a E-NE today however the NW is looking light and no thick high cloud cover expected going by model runs. It looks like possibly more inland now though, mt somers up through to oxford and your way richard also just going by surface moisture on the model runs.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 09:51
by Richard
First signs of development just off the coast from Ashburton.
NW wind is back here, but I dont think it will last long

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 10:34
by mikestormchaser
No NW here at all. Infact its a very light E-SE in rolleston. Blue skies but big CU over offshore of birdlings flat

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 10:38
by Richard
Even NW here in Amberley too, once the tough starts to move over it will drop away

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 11:00
by dogmelon
I've seen it be NW before a thundery SW change enough times to know that the pre storm NWer is no big deal.

It either makes thunderstorms or it doesn't, simple.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 11:15
by mikestormchaser
dogmelon wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 11:00 I've seen it be NW before a thundery SW change enough times to know that the pre storm NWer is no big deal.

It either makes thunderstorms or it doesn't, simple.
Yes correct however it does help for a decent set up and things to fire alot better with the inflow of a NE.
Very seldom will you get a severe day with a strong dry NW wind. Esp when our weather pattern runs west to east anyway

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 12:10
by melja
No real NW aloft in chch tho with the clouds slowly drifting from the south

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Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 12:25
by Chris W
Same risk area tomorrow pretty much over Canterbury, probably worth adding tomorrow into this thread title.

Full morning of heating and light wind, seeing some cumulus humilis starting to pass by the window in Amberley.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 12:35
by Orion
Easterly wind on the ground here at present, dark cloud coming across from the west, it's gone very quiet, I have brought the washing in... 0_o

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 12:43
by Chris W
There is definitely a cb to the southwest in the distance, cumulus starting to get vertical around here too.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 13:02
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
A few Cu's around the place, glaciating giving some delivering a few heavy spots of rain.SW wind here. :-k

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 13:09
by dogmelon
mikestormchaser wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 11:15
dogmelon wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 11:00 I've seen it be NW before a thundery SW change enough times to know that the pre storm NWer is no big deal.

It either makes thunderstorms or it doesn't, simple.
Yes correct however it does help for a decent set up and things to fire alot better with the inflow of a NE.
Very seldom will you get a severe day with a strong dry NW wind. Esp when our weather pattern runs west to east anyway
Fair call, yip indeed the meanest storms have that NEer ahead of them. The wind is sort of swirling around at the minute where I am in,Spreydon. Curious...

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 13:22
by mikestormchaser
Definitely looking at models this morning though as mentioned earlier it looks like more inland foothills. The southerly seems to push inland then straight up the south island so convergence and moisture will go inland and up towards oxford.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 13:26
by Richard
Still a moderate NW here but building nicely to the south

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 13:28
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Just had a hail shower here. Looking bleak inland towards Waimate way.
might go for a wee drive.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 14:06
by Chris W
Incoming for Rangiora, looks to be building.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 14:12
by dogmelon
The big black cloud just doesn't look "good". It looks weakish, fizzery. I don't know much about the mechanics of storms, this is just years of observing, sorry for ignorance.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 14:23
by Powermad
Thundering in Hornby :-)

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 14:25
by mikechamble
Heard a couple of rumbles here in Addington. Not much else going on at the moment though.

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 14:44
by TonyT
Plenty of thunder rumbling around Amberley at present

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Posted: Tue 29/10/2019 14:50
by Chris W
Haven't heard that yet (in Amberley) but there is an angry cloud incoming, decent inflow winds.
20191029_144407.jpg
Yep, thundering away now.