Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Archive of NZ Weather and Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 7782
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Amuri basin,Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1167 times
Been thanked: 518 times

Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by Richard »

Could today be the drought breaker for my area, like Mike Ive not planed any work today
Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 29 Oct 2019

Issued at: 8:00pm Monday 28 Oct 2019

Cold air at upper levels and surface troughs affect eastern parts of New Zealand. During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over the Canterbury Plains and foothills, and a moderate risk for Hawkes Bay from about Hastings northwards. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 15mm per hour and small hail. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area including eastern parts of Otago, the Canterbury High Country, the east of Marlborough, the south of Wairarapa and Wellington, and the remainder of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.

No other thunderstorms or severe convection expected over New Zealand during this period.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Richard on Tue 29/10/2019 13:24, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by NZstorm »

The set up is lacking a E/NE today. There is a southerly kicking in around the middle of the day and that could be the best time for convergence.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 7782
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Amuri basin,Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1167 times
Been thanked: 518 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Richard »

Not a lot of change on this mornings update from the MetService
Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 29 Oct 2019

Issued at: 7:34am Tuesday 29 Oct 2019

Cold air at upper levels and surface troughs affect eastern parts of New Zealand. During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in North Otago, over the Canterbury Plains and foothills, and a moderate risk for Hawkes Bay from about Hastings northwards. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 15mm per hour and small hail. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area including eastern Dunedin, the Canterbury High Country, the east of Marlborough, the south of Wairarapa and Wellington, and the remainder of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 7782
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Amuri basin,Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1167 times
Been thanked: 518 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Richard »

NZstorm wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 07:36 The set up is lacking a E/NE today. There is a southerly kicking in around the middle of the day and that could be the best time for convergence.
Has been blowing a NW till about an hour ago, died out now which is needed
User avatar
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2515
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 155 times
Been thanked: 294 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

NZstorm wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 07:36 The set up is lacking a E/NE today. There is a southerly kicking in around the middle of the day and that could be the best time for convergence.
It is indeed lacking a E-NE today however the NW is looking light and no thick high cloud cover expected going by model runs. It looks like possibly more inland now though, mt somers up through to oxford and your way richard also just going by surface moisture on the model runs.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 7782
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Amuri basin,Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1167 times
Been thanked: 518 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Richard »

First signs of development just off the coast from Ashburton.
NW wind is back here, but I dont think it will last long
User avatar
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2515
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 155 times
Been thanked: 294 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

No NW here at all. Infact its a very light E-SE in rolleston. Blue skies but big CU over offshore of birdlings flat
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 7782
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Amuri basin,Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1167 times
Been thanked: 518 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Richard »

Even NW here in Amberley too, once the tough starts to move over it will drop away
dogmelon
Posts: 352
Joined: Wed 22/09/2004 13:24
Location: Chch.
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by dogmelon »

I've seen it be NW before a thundery SW change enough times to know that the pre storm NWer is no big deal.

It either makes thunderstorms or it doesn't, simple.
User avatar
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2515
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 155 times
Been thanked: 294 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

dogmelon wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 11:00 I've seen it be NW before a thundery SW change enough times to know that the pre storm NWer is no big deal.

It either makes thunderstorms or it doesn't, simple.
Yes correct however it does help for a decent set up and things to fire alot better with the inflow of a NE.
Very seldom will you get a severe day with a strong dry NW wind. Esp when our weather pattern runs west to east anyway
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by melja »

No real NW aloft in chch tho with the clouds slowly drifting from the south

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Chris W »

Same risk area tomorrow pretty much over Canterbury, probably worth adding tomorrow into this thread title.

Full morning of heating and light wind, seeing some cumulus humilis starting to pass by the window in Amberley.
Orion
Posts: 3633
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 702 times
Been thanked: 172 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Orion »

Easterly wind on the ground here at present, dark cloud coming across from the west, it's gone very quiet, I have brought the washing in... 0_o
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by Chris W »

There is definitely a cb to the southwest in the distance, cumulus starting to get vertical around here too.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 17173
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1241 times
Been thanked: 957 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A few Cu's around the place, glaciating giving some delivering a few heavy spots of rain.SW wind here. :-k
JohnGaul
NZThS
dogmelon
Posts: 352
Joined: Wed 22/09/2004 13:24
Location: Chch.
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by dogmelon »

mikestormchaser wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 11:15
dogmelon wrote: Tue 29/10/2019 11:00 I've seen it be NW before a thundery SW change enough times to know that the pre storm NWer is no big deal.

It either makes thunderstorms or it doesn't, simple.
Yes correct however it does help for a decent set up and things to fire alot better with the inflow of a NE.
Very seldom will you get a severe day with a strong dry NW wind. Esp when our weather pattern runs west to east anyway
Fair call, yip indeed the meanest storms have that NEer ahead of them. The wind is sort of swirling around at the minute where I am in,Spreydon. Curious...
User avatar
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2515
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 155 times
Been thanked: 294 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29/10/2019

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Definitely looking at models this morning though as mentioned earlier it looks like more inland foothills. The southerly seems to push inland then straight up the south island so convergence and moisture will go inland and up towards oxford.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 7782
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Amuri basin,Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1167 times
Been thanked: 518 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by Richard »

Still a moderate NW here but building nicely to the south
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 17173
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1241 times
Been thanked: 957 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Just had a hail shower here. Looking bleak inland towards Waimate way.
might go for a wee drive.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by Chris W »

Incoming for Rangiora, looks to be building.
dogmelon
Posts: 352
Joined: Wed 22/09/2004 13:24
Location: Chch.
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by dogmelon »

The big black cloud just doesn't look "good". It looks weakish, fizzery. I don't know much about the mechanics of storms, this is just years of observing, sorry for ignorance.
Powermad
Posts: 105
Joined: Tue 13/11/2012 17:08
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 29 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by Powermad »

Thundering in Hornby :-)
mikechamble
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri 24/02/2006 11:17
Location: Parklands, Christchurch
Has thanked: 10 times
Been thanked: 3 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by mikechamble »

Heard a couple of rumbles here in Addington. Not much else going on at the moment though.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2746
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 317 times
Been thanked: 958 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by TonyT »

Plenty of thunder rumbling around Amberley at present
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Storms-Canterbury/Hawkes Bay 29th & 30th /10/2019

Unread post by Chris W »

Haven't heard that yet (in Amberley) but there is an angry cloud incoming, decent inflow winds.
20191029_144407.jpg
Yep, thundering away now.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Chris W on Tue 29/10/2019 15:01, edited 2 times in total.
Locked