NZ Weather Forum

Nothing in Akaroa, but looks dark to northwest.

Building to the south west,

Thunder heard just now.
Rain starting.
Breeze has risen and gone more southerly.

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 15:04 Building to the south west,

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You might get something pretty good Richard, it's flashing occasionally here right now and some pretty close shotgun thunder just there.

Just got back from Temuka. Heavy rain on the way there with one flash of lightning observed.
Here a shot of the cloud where I saw the lightning come out of in behind Pleasant Point/Timaru.

Suns back out here in CHCH. Here's hoping some of the action in South Canterbury comes little closer to the city this time!

Chris W wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 15:22

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 15:04 Building to the south west,

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You might get something pretty good Richard, it's flashing occasionally here right now and some pretty close shotgun thunder just there.

no just a wee shower of rain.

Travelling from Methven to Rakaia just after 3pm today- temperature was 12 in Methven dropping to 8 in Rakaia. Localised heavy rain and brief hail going through the Rakaia/barrhill/Methven route. My husband took the Methven Chertsey Road from Methven to come home . Big difference with temperature dropping to 3 degrees, localised heavy hail. Observed fork lightning on the drive home. Only had brief rain showers here in Rakaia in the past hour.

Settling down now in readiness for tomorrow's onslaught.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 19:15 Settling down now in readiness for tomorrow's onslaught.

i see theres a risk again down there tommorow. wish i can be there cause auckland is likely to not get thunder for a while due to the strong anticyclone comming in.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 19:15 Settling down now in readiness for tomorrow's onslaught.

Are you thinking severe or more similar to today?

Chris W wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 19:33

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 19:15 Settling down now in readiness for tomorrow's onslaught.

Are you thinking severe or more similar to today?

Dont want similar to today

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 19:44

Chris W wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 19:33

Are you thinking severe or more similar to today?

Dont want similar to today

Looking at models tonight. Low risk for me. Not as good as today. A couple of factors.. 1- theres definitely more of a NW influence 2- the cold air sits further south for when the change hits about 6pm and 3- there doesn't seem to be much instability in terms of LIs, CAPE or K index readings. So id say low risk

I agree with Mike, low thunder risk at best tomorrow.

The air is less cold aloft tomorrow but a strong southerly change coming through later afternoon. Looks like a struggle to get lightning out of it due to NW flow ahead of it. Could be a photogenic line though with a very strong wind gust. Temperature will drop from about 21C to 10C in a very short space of time!

Very much a good brief thunder/hail set up in canterbury today, almost simular to an inland summer set up with moderate winds converging at all levels.
Was never really a day for severe storms or large hail, as there wasnt any good forcing for higher topped CB,s.
No strong upper jet etc.
Good for general storms with 5-15mm hail and high accumulations too.
Some really good videos in today especially oj Chris Lynchs page on facebook, of a big CG bolt over Kaiapoi.
Several reports of a house being hit by lightning in Akaroa street blowing out the circuit and the lights.
The neighbouring house also had its TV blown.
Another report of a large tree hit near Ohoka as well.
Agree in terms of tomorrows chances, but as NZstorm says a photogenic gust front should be visable.

As for today though it wasn't a bad day really. I took the risk and had a day off to chase. Aaron and i headed out about lunch time, got the main storm that was going straight up the plains but we decided it looked like it might get stronger in the inland/oxford area.. it wasnt to be sadly and we missed alot of the action futher east towards chch. Oh well thats chasing sometimes.. pretty fustrating as we got next to no pics etc. Good excuse
To stop off at the Sheffield bakery in oxford though First little chase of the season

Storm Struck wrote: ↑Tue 29/10/2019 22:33 Some really good videos in today especially oj Chris Lynchs page on facebook, of a big CG bolt over Kaiapoi.
Several reports of a house being hit by lightning in Akaroa street blowing out the circuit and the lights.

I presume you mean Akaroa Street, not a street in Akaroa. No thunderstorm (or any rain at all) in Akaroa today.

Today's risk area doesn't include the Hawkes Bay with the moderate area south of CHCH, so I would expect my storm drought to continue into its twenty first month.

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 30 Oct 2019

Issued at: 8:37am Wednesday 30 Oct 2019

A front is expected to move rapidly northwards over the South Island this afternoon and evening, accompanied by a strong to gale southerly change and a burst of rain. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with this front in eastern areas from Clutha to Christchurch during the afternoon, and a low risk of thunderstorms about North Canterbury in the evening. These thunderstorms may be accompanied by brief heavy rain and hail. Additionally, the combination of gale southerlies with the change along with gusts from thunderstorms could bring gusts of 90 to 110 km/h, especially near the coast.

It seems the coldest upper air doesn't make it beyond Chch or very far inland so this is coastal today. I guess MS think the frontal forcing will be enough to push warm surface air up into the colder levels. Overcast now but looks to clear from the south and allow some heating, then the NW might die off a bit to allow the NE to get going?

Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 30/10/2019 09:11 It seems the coldest upper air doesn't make it beyond Chch or very far inland so this is coastal today. I guess MS think the frontal forcing will be enough to push warm surface air up into the colder levels. Overcast now but looks to clear from the south and allow some heating, then the NW might die off a bit to allow the NE to get going?

It would be nice but not today unfortunately. Maybe a gust front though?

Sunny in Amberley for the past hour, surely got to be a slight chance of an NE here.

Chch airport reports an NE wind 22kmh gusting 28 currently, New Brighton Pier E 17kmh, Sugar Loaf NE 19kmh. What if the NW slides over the top of it?

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 30/10/2019 10:07
Maybe a gust front though?

Get your camera ready, yes there will be a gust front.

I think so too but probably out along the coast, then inland south of ChCh.
Lovely fine day here after a bit of warm-frontal rain earlier this morning.
Sunny skies and not much wind. 17.8C..

blowing a strong NW again here today

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 30/10/2019 13:52 blowing a strong NW again here today

Will turn NW prior to change on coast to Richard. And models suggest it to. Id love if it did surprise us though and stay NE