Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10-12

[tornado]

theres already been some discussion in the november thread. i thought i would make a thread. metservice has got most of the north island under a moderate risk for thunder from afternoon and a heavy rain watch for most of the north island as well. parts of bay of plenty under a heavy rain warning.

[Cyclone Tracy]

That Tasman trough currently has a 1,500 km line of bolts.

Models currently projecting the jet streams will be interacting above the NI early tomorrow morning with the surface trough tilting negative as it moves across the NI. Later on tomorrow also has some nice cold uppers. Should be an interesting Sunday in parts of both Islands.

[treetopkk]

band of active lightning in Tasman down to Fiordland now

[Cyclone Tracy]

-60c cloud tops popping up on that other stationary tilting trough in the Tasman near the NI around 5pm.

IR 0911 4.50pm.jpg

[tornado]

i see that storms have started slightly closer to us. with the main band behind it. wonder if we will catch any thunder tonight or overnight?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Sadly the line of thunderstorms are dwindling as it becoming darker.
NI might not get any but tomorrow looks promising for the SW of the South Island, before quickly dwindling away.
Back to clagg again looks likely here as a low develops east of Canterbury.

[tornado]

Sadly the line of thunderstorms are dwindling as it becoming darker.
NI might not get any but tomorrow looks promising for the SW of the South Island, before quickly dwindling away.
Back to clagg again looks likely here as a low develops east of Canterbury.

theres still a chance with tommorows afternoon showers up here though. again. the risk from tommorow here is from afternoon. so lets see what happens. might be isolated. but still a chance. the band is meant to be coming through early morning then afternoon the risk for thunderstorms from the afternoon showers is moderate

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

As per usual, I see there is a line of thunderstorms heading for Auckland? What else is new?

[tornado]

the line behind the newer line of storms is getting stronger again

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

the line behind the newer line od storms is getting stronger again

Tornado possible around Taranaki? or Waikato

[tornado]

the line behind the newer line od storms is getting stronger again

Tornado possible around Taranaki? or Waikato

maybe taranaki as always. new zealands "tornado alley" maybe waikato.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Tornado possible around Taranaki? or Waikato

maybe taranaki as always. new zealands "tornado alley" maybe waikato.

Could be.
Just like "Thunderstorm Corner" down here in Canterbury.

[Storm Struck]

Tornado: include top of south in the topic as its looking right in the firing line for thunderstorms and very heavy rain.
As indicated on MS latest outlook also.
Big band lines just starting to filter in from the north, being picked up well on the wellington radar also being so far offshore.
Next 36 hours will be interesting.

[tornado]

yes I see that the upper south island is also in the risk for getting rain/thunder. thanks alot.


our risk for thunder starts from afternoon through till tonight.

[tornado]

heavy downpour here at the moment. looking foward for possible thunder this afternoon

[Awhituobs]

I see some strikes recorded northern Kaipara from a shower line that does not look like much on rain radar, so that is promising

[tornado]

I see some strikes recorded northern Kaipara from a shower line that does not look like much on rain radar, so that is promising

yes i see that too. hopefully some action this afternoon as the risk starts from 12pm. really good signs for thunder.


strikes in taranaki now too.

[Nev]

This morn's outlook for today... still just moderate risks...

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 10 Nov 2019
Issued at: 7:46am Sunday 10 Nov 2019

A front preceded by a moist unstable northerly flow with embedded troughs moves slowly east over the upper South Island today. The front is expected to move east onto the North Island this evening.

This morning there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from the west of Auckland south through coastal Waikato, Waitomo and Taranaki. There is also a moderate risk in Buller and the far north of Westland. This afternoon and evening there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over much of the North Island and northern South Island as shown on the chart. If these thunderstorms occur, they are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms about the remainder of the North Island and parts of the northern South Island as shown on the chart. During the afternoon, showers are likely to develop about inland Otago and South Canterbury, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon for the Mackenzie Country and northern Central Otago.

No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected over New Zealand during this period.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Nov 10.png

[NZstorm]

Could be a good light show somewhere this evening as that upper level cooling comes across. Maybe Hauraki Gulf?

[Razor]

Hoping Aucklands weather doesn't wreck the cricket this afternoon otherwise NZ and England will have to settle for another tie

[RWood]

Apart from slightly better conditions on Monday and Thursday, a drab miserable week in Wellington.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Currently 20c, 18.5c dew point with the sun out here. Had a brief 5mm downpour on sunrise with a rate of 54mm/hr at one point.

[tornado]

if any thunderstorms come near auckland i hope it happens at night so that we can have a nice natural "fireworks display" in the sky. which would be good.

[TonyT]

Thunder in Amberley now, with moderate rain.

[David]

Apart from 3mm around dawn, just 0.4mm here today... Sure hope we can get some decent rain later, garden sure needs it