Thunderstorms South & North Islands November 14th

[Chris W]

Looks a good risk of storms for Southland, Otago and Canterbury on Thursday afternoon:

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/thu ... rm-outlook

Brief post, but there's the info ^.

[spwill]

John might be in a good spot tomorrow.

[mikestormchaser]

I agree. Timaru and south Canterbury might cop a storm tomorrow. Doesnt look great further north except maybe a shower.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

John might be in a good spot tomorrow.

We'll see.

[Richard]

Well, wind has died, sky is clear, hopefully a northeasterly wind can develop as the small low moving east in the Tasman crosses later in the day.

[Razor]

Fresh southerly scuttling through here in Chch since dawn

[NZstorm]

Looks like convection gets going early with isolated thunderstorms developing by 1pm. With 500mb -25C every storm will have hail.

[Richard]

Fresh southerly scuttling through here in Chch since dawn

Bloody NW is back big time here but looking at the satellite that shouldn't last to long.

[jamie]

Looks like convection gets going early with isolated thunderstorms developing by 1pm. With 500mb -25C every storm will have hail.

Had a thunderstorm this morning on the front. One decent flash bang then heavy rain.


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[Richard]

I do think this thread needs to include the North Island too given the amount of area covered on this mornings updated MS chart.

A front over the North Island is expected to move away to the northeast of New Zealand during the afternoon, with an associated moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Northland and Auckland, and over Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne until afternoon. A low risk of thunderstorms covers areas to the immediate west of the front as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour.

Unstable westerlies then affect central New Zealand during the afternoon, bringing a low risk of thunderstorms to the western North Island south of Auckland and a moderate risk to northern Westland, Buller and Nelson. From late afternoon, a trough and upper cold pool are expected to move across these regions, increasing the risk in the North Island to moderate from Waitomo to Wellington. Any thunderstorms that occur in these moderate risk areas are expected to bring heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour, small hail, squally winds gusting 90 - 110 km/h, and a low probability of small coastal tornadoes.

Eastern areas of the South Island may also see a risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening as convergence lines develop due to northeasterly winds in these parts. A moderate risk of thunderstorms covers much of Canterbury, Otago and Southland, mostly inland but some may drift southeast. These thunderstorms could bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour and small hail.

The remainder of the South Island also sees a low risk of thunderstorms as indicated on the chart.

thunderstormOutlookImage.png

[NZstorm]

I do think this thread needs to include the North Island too given the amount of area covered on this mornings updated MS chart.

I can't see much going on over the NI today.

[tornado]

I do think this thread needs to include the North Island too given the amount of area covered on this mornings updated MS chart.

I can't see much going on over the NI today.

same. metservice should of had the high risk this morning over northland and not auckland. though i did hear a distant rumble of thunder.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nothing much really happening down here.
We had 12.2mm of rain overnight and there have been a few watery looking Cu humulus going up. Slightly easterly though.

[Chris Raine]

Just had a moderate shower out of Sc cugen

[Richard]

Still blowing a moderate W, if anything happens its going to be late afternoon

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nothing much really happening to "wet your pants" over.
Lots of glaciation and a few weak Cu congestus around Mt. Peel.
No ooooomph to get things going.
Just came back from walking into town and a very light drizzle shower occured.
Seems the action is occurring way down south, Oamaru possibly Dunedin way.

[Chris W]

Looking west from the airport (off to Brisbane) there's not much going on, maybe too much high cloud at the moment.

[Richard]

Starting to build to the south what looks like over CHCH.

003.JPG

[mikestormchaser]

Definitely building over the city. Theres a small cell with hail reported in bishopdale. Looks rather juicey out there atm. Its like the cap just blew off and its exploding

[mikestormchaser]

20191114_153424.jpg

[Chris W]

Hadn't checked the radar and completely missed that cell, does look like I've or two more cells are trying to go up now to the west.

Richard, I see small scale development along the foothills looking north.

[Karliosis]

One rumble heard a few minutes ago from here in Somerfield, light shower and dark clouds, but doesn't look very well organised at this stage

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Starting to look interesting Mt. Peel way.
Quite hazy down here with moist feeling to the air as well.

[Richard]

Richard, I see small scale development along the foothills looking north.

Doesnt look much from here atm, but I still think there's time yet.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'm giving this one a miss I think. Lots of Cu buubblies but no pregnancy
Hey. I just counted 6 spots of drizzle.