NZ Weather Forum

Thought it might be an idea to start a new thread for Wednesday seeing the Met Service have a moderate risk over most of the eastern side of the South Island. What's everyone's thoughts?

Twice in a week? Thats just greedy haha

My thoughts?

I haven't looked at any of the modelling for it, just going off what others have already said.

In my books, now, after yesterday, it's better not to start off a thread because knowing my luck, nothing will happen?
......but we wait and see

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 12:29 Thought it might be an idea to start a new thread for Wednesday seeing the Met Service have a moderate risk over most of the eastern side of the South Island. What's everyone's thoughts?

I still think it looks good richard! From what i can see few showers in morning with southrlys clearing, then that upper trough in the afternoon. By then the winds look onshore converging with a NW so i think storms might be slightly more inland then yesterday but could also be coastal.
Metservice say small hail which i dont agree with. Id say a chance severe hail given the strong shear and jet tomorrow aswel.

I'm gonna say that it will storm over the city again because it always works that way, two/three storm days in a week and then nothing for a decade.

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 15:40
Metservice say small hail which i dont agree with. Id say a chance severe hail given the strong shear and jet tomorrow aswel.

I agree 100%.

Usually if canterbury gets 2-3 storm days in November it follows a fruitful december, which also happened to be 2002-2004 and was a SSW period.
Those were the years, december 18th until january 5th 3-4 days in a row.
Will it be the year, im hoping so as ill be down for xmas new years .

Good luck tomorrow guys, good moisture to boot and fresh NE inflow.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 20:36

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 15:40
Metservice say small hail which i dont agree with. Id say a chance severe hail given the strong shear and jet tomorrow aswel.

I agree 100%.

I see on last night's update they removed the term 'small.
Good sign for my area is the NW wind has been replaced with a slight SE, just need it to stay that way, often swings back again which is just so soul destroying

Just got to work in Wigram, settling into work. There is sunshine outside but some dark clouds to the west, blue to the south. Only 9c at 8am

It looks like one of those days that we could get some decent activity

Bloody NW wind is blowing again, but I won't write it off just yet

Sunny skies in Kaikõura, got to drive all the way down to Chch this afternoon/early evening so hoping for good views on the way down if you know what I mean!

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 08:25 Bloody NW wind is blowing again, but I won't write it off just yet

You need NW at your location as inflow to the meso-scale trough - just as the easterly inflow is needed from the coast and southwest inflow from South Canterbury. Its when they all combine together that the magic happens!

Its a lot cooler this morning than I though it might be. Fresh southerly and cloudy conditions here in ChCh as that first wave skirts the peninsula.

Nice start for things to come. Theres alot more sun this morning then i thought. So hopefully good heating

I should be off work at 1pm, just worried it might even be to late for when the storms first fire up

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 08:41

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 08:25 Bloody NW wind is blowing again, but I won't write it off just yet

You need NW at your location as inflow to the meso-scale trough - just as the easterly inflow is needed from the coast and southwest inflow from South Canterbury. Its when they all combine together that the magic happens!

That NW didn't last long and the convergence has moved back towards the foothills. Cloud is building nicely ATM

I'm finishing around 12 to chase

Bound to be a bust today, too many people taking time off work, Hughie will have noticed.

Action starting between Oamaru and Timaru by the looks of it on radar and visible satellite.

TonyT wrote:Bound to be a bust today, too many people taking time off work, Hughie will have noticed.

Always the way....

Thunder and lightning with hail here near Glenavy

snowstormwatcher wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 11:36 Thunder and lightning with hail here near Glenavy

I can see why...

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 10:54 Bound to be a bust today, too many people taking time off work, Hughie will have noticed.

Its ok if you are working at home isn't it, me building a gate while watching the sky

Wind is all over the show here, swung NW-SE so many times. Can see the tops of the storm clouds down Ashburton from here.