South Island Storms 20/11/19

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Richard
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South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Richard »

Thought it might be an idea to start a new thread for Wednesday seeing the Met Service have a moderate risk over most of the eastern side of the South Island. What's everyone's thoughts?
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Razor »

Twice in a week? Thats just greedy haha
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Chris W »

My thoughts? \:D/

I haven't looked at any of the modelling for it, just going off what others have already said.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

In my books, now, after yesterday, it's better not to start off a thread because knowing my luck, nothing will happen? 8-o :rolleyes:
......but we wait and see :smile:
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 12:29 Thought it might be an idea to start a new thread for Wednesday seeing the Met Service have a moderate risk over most of the eastern side of the South Island. What's everyone's thoughts?
I still think it looks good richard! From what i can see few showers in morning with southrlys clearing, then that upper trough in the afternoon. By then the winds look onshore converging with a NW so i think storms might be slightly more inland then yesterday but could also be coastal.
Metservice say small hail which i dont agree with. Id say a chance severe hail given the strong shear and jet tomorrow aswel.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by dogmelon »

I'm gonna say that it will storm over the city again because it always works that way, two/three storm days in a week and then nothing for a decade.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by NZstorm »

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 15:40
Metservice say small hail which i dont agree with. Id say a chance severe hail given the strong shear and jet tomorrow aswel.
I agree 100%.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Usually if canterbury gets 2-3 storm days in November it follows a fruitful december, which also happened to be 2002-2004 and was a SSW period.
Those were the years, december 18th until january 5th 3-4 days in a row.
Will it be the year, im hoping so as ill be down for xmas new years πŸ˜†.

Good luck tomorrow guys, good moisture to boot and fresh NE inflow.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Richard »

NZstorm wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 20:36
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 19/11/2019 15:40
Metservice say small hail which i dont agree with. Id say a chance severe hail given the strong shear and jet tomorrow aswel.
I agree 100%.
I see on last night's update they removed the term 'small.
Good sign for my area is the NW wind has been replaced with a slight SE, just need it to stay that way, often swings back again which is just so soul destroying
>_<
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by JP. »

Just got to work in Wigram, settling into work. There is sunshine outside but some dark clouds to the west, blue to the south. Only 9c at 8am

It looks like one of those days that we could get some decent activity
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Richard »

Bloody NW wind is blowing again, but I won't write it off just yet
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Chris W »

Sunny skies in KaikΓ΅ura, got to drive all the way down to Chch this afternoon/early evening so hoping for good views on the way down if you know what I mean! ;)
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by TonyT »

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 08:25 Bloody NW wind is blowing again, but I won't write it off just yet
You need NW at your location as inflow to the meso-scale trough - just as the easterly inflow is needed from the coast and southwest inflow from South Canterbury. Its when they all combine together that the magic happens! :D
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Razor »

Its a lot cooler this morning than I though it might be. Fresh southerly and cloudy conditions here in ChCh as that first wave skirts the peninsula.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Nice start for things to come. Theres alot more sun this morning then i thought. So hopefully good heating
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I should be off work at 1pm, just worried it might even be to late for when the storms first fire up
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Richard »

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 08:41
Richard wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 08:25 Bloody NW wind is blowing again, but I won't write it off just yet
You need NW at your location as inflow to the meso-scale trough - just as the easterly inflow is needed from the coast and southwest inflow from South Canterbury. Its when they all combine together that the magic happens! :D
That NW didn't last long and the convergence has moved back towards the foothills. Cloud is building nicely ATM
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Powermad »

I'm finishing around 12 to chase :-)
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by TonyT »

Bound to be a bust today, too many people taking time off work, Hughie will have noticed. :lol:
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Chris W »

Action starting between Oamaru and Timaru by the looks of it on radar and visible satellite.
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

TonyT wrote:Bound to be a bust today, too many people taking time off work, Hughie will have noticed. Image
Always the way....
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Thunder and lightning with hail here near Glenavy
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Razor »

snowstormwatcher wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 11:36 Thunder and lightning with hail here near Glenavy
I can see why...
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Richard »

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 20/11/2019 10:54 Bound to be a bust today, too many people taking time off work, Hughie will have noticed. :lol:
Its ok if you are working at home isn't it, me building a gate while watching the sky :D
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Re: South Island Storms 20/11/19

Unread post by Richard »

Wind is all over the show here, swung NW-SE so many times. Can see the tops of the storm clouds down Ashburton from here.
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