General December Weather

[tornado]

good heavy shower here now. wasnt expecting any rain today.

[cbm]

The sky is a funny colour today

sky_no_smoke.jpg

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[Awhituobs]

yes, its sure is a change to see much clearer skies and the more normal dark blue

[mikestormchaser]

Nice enough day around this part of the country today. Some castalanus altocumulus this evening sitting over the plains i noticed.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes. I noticed that too but weak as the worst part of the system have cleared away.
Nice blue sky today , the blueist I've seen for ages.
Cool winds from the SE today here.

[tornado]

got up to 27c now down to 14c here.
had a heavy shower this morning but after that shower it was fine. quite a bit of clouds though. none of that hazy smoke was in our skies today which made the skies looked more blue

[Orion]

Colourful sunrise sky over the past 10-15 minutes.

About 9°C at present.

[Cyclone Tracy]

As the SAM (AAO) index continues it's incredible negative sequence to 53 days from the SSW, 100+ ensemble model runs across multiple agencies are producing a significant long wave trough launching into the NZ region next week. Finer details to be worked out but it's becoming more likely by each run that a synoptic scale upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex will cut off from the westerly conveyor belt around the NI and may get followed in by a stronger upper trough before Christmas. Latest EC 50+ member ensemble run this morning as an example.

EPS 0912 12Z.jpg

[Chris W]

Hasty amateur analysis alert. There's a pool of air over NZ and the South Pacific/Southern Ocean at 70hPa that is colder than the dissipating vortex area which was shunted towards Africa/South America by the SSW but is still warmer than the air north of it. In that area the 250hPa jetstream is all over the show with energy going north and south of NZ but also spilling around over us. Looks like a pinball machine for weather systems. Hardly conducive to stable weather as you say CT!

Check earth.nullschoot.net for that, I can't post an image at the moment.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 53,-77.053

[David]

Lot of rain showing up next week for here on the GFS. Hope so!

[tornado]

Lot of rain showing up next week for here on the GFS. Hope so!

yes i hope so too. the weekend was a disappointment after thundrstorms failed to reach here

[Awhituobs]

models are all over the place for later next week for what is going to happen
certainly a hint at a cold outbreak

[spwill]

Very thick smoke over Sydney today might find its way here later in the week, nice to have the clean skies last couple of days.

[RWood]

Lot of rain showing up next week for here on the GFS. Hope so!

I know you guys need rain but I was pleased to virtually miss it while we were there - just a few showers to dodge.

[jamie]

Next week is certainly looking interesting. ECMWF is showing 80mm for here.


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[NZstorm]

ECMWF cooks up isolated thundery cb's over inland Bay of Plenty to Waitomo tomorrow afternoon also inland Otago/Southland.

[Chris W]

Looked at the GFS just now, Monday through Wednesday next week could be bad news if that comes off. Seems to be pretty much what CT is suggesting, a cut-off low with a whole heap of moisture in the places we won't need it - west coast, South Canterbury and other areas. Hope it's wrong or an isolated run. EC seems to have it moving on more quickly.

[spwill]

EC model looks more typical for the time of year, the more southerly track of the low next week.

Lovely bluest skies here today, no smoke.

[tornado]

I see metservice has the low risk up to auckland and moderate around waikato tommrow.

[Chris W]

EC model looks more typical for the time of year, the more southerly track of the low next week.

Lovely bluest skies here today, no smoke.

We are in untypical times however with SSW impacts continuing and very negative SAM, so wouldn't rule either out. For what it's worth the BOM Access model is further north but still seems to move it through more quickly than GFS.

[spwill]

EC model looks more typical for the time of year, the more southerly track of the low next week.

Lovely bluest skies here today, no smoke.

We are in untypical times however with SSW impacts continuing and very negative SAM, so wouldn't rule either out. For what it's worth the BOM Access model is further north but still seems to move it through more quickly than GFS.

Yes I agree, it is reasonable to expect some lows and troughs in the westerlies to be a bit further north than usaul.

[NZstorm]

Looking like isolated thundery falls this afternoon from about north Waikato south along a convergence line. Parts of Auckland could catch a heavy shower off the line with 26C max possible.

[Razor]

Looked at the GFS just now, Monday through Wednesday next week could be bad news if that comes off. Seems to be pretty much what CT is suggesting, a cut-off low with a whole heap of moisture in the places we won't need it - west coast, South Canterbury and other areas. Hope it's wrong or an isolated run. EC seems to have it moving on more quickly.

GFS has backed off big time. Nothing much to see there this on mornings run

[spwill]

An unsettled period of weather coming up, a bit early for the detail but looking promising for some much needed rain over the North Island, South Island will catch rain as well. Possibly some cold troughing onto NZ in the week before Xmas also.

[tornado]

here in takinini very dark clouds around.
edit: heavy shower looks to be weaking now according to radar. uh well. next week looks intresting.
edit yep weakened. what looked dark and thundery looking ended up being a light shower.