NZ Weather Forum

Almost a solid week of a strong northwesterly flow, courtesy of a longwave trough, looks very likely to bring an exceptional amount of rain to the west coast of the South Island and severe gales to the east of the island in including the coast. It looks particularly severe from Monday 2nd through Wednesday 4th but not limited to those days.

Also affected as might be expected are the Wellington and southern Wairarapa regions.

Yes, blowing like "40 People born out of wedlock" here in Geraldine.
Had to rescue some washing from off the clothes line that ended over the fence into next-door.
Very wet weather looming for the West coast alright.

Getting blown about here in Rakaia. Certainly a good dust bowl around here this afternoon. Not looking forward to the winds on Tuesday.

Also a very windy afternoon in Lyttelton, just got the washing out to dry and I doubt it will take long.

EC 18Z suggesting there might be a little bit in this for the upper NI on Tuesday afternoon as well. A prefrontal trough projecting to have precip water 40 to 45mm above it and the K index in the mid 30's. Might be some good downpours involved around Auckland. MS are now recognising this as well in the TS outlook.

Normally Auckland does not get a lot of rain from fronts from the Tasman in December
but this front and low is more vigorous than normal for December (looks more like an August /September setup)
so happy to see any rain, any rain at this time of year is a bonus

How would like to be holed up at Tasman Saddle hut this week with a few good books and a bottle of dram or two... I really like the new website for Natinal Park predictions. 786mm of "precipitation projected by the computer with a fair breeze to boot

Doesn't look so bad for wind now, warning and outlook areas are retracting inland for Canterbury although Wellington is still covered. Rainfall still seems very high for the coast not least as you show there Razor.

Starting to rain from the NW here now after thickening high cloud all day.

Transit advising surface flooding affecting SH South of Ross towards Franz already. I have a feeling this one is going to be a bit of an echo of March

Razor wrote: ↑Mon 02/12/2019 20:29 Transit advising surface flooding affecting SH South of Ross towards Franz already. I have a feeling this one is going to be a bit of an echo of March

Yes, some bigger numbers showing now, including 124mm at Cropp last 4 hours, 37 in hour to 2100.

I hope this rain will not clear out another West coast rubbish tip
Air NZ have cancelled some flights into Wellington because of the incoming system.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Mon 02/12/2019 22:13 I hope this rain will not clear out another West coast rubbish tip
Air NZ have cancelled some flights into Wellington because of the incoming system.

Yes, a while I think since flights cancelled so far in advance, though the wind this morning does not appear to be anything special.

Various West Coast sites over the 120mm mark for the last 24 hours, Cropp 384mm and 580mm MTD to 0530.

i see theres been downpours and thunder on the western south island this morning

RWood wrote: ↑Tue 03/12/2019 07:43
Various West Coast sites over the 120mm mark for the last 24 hours, Cropp 384mm and 580mm MTD to 0530.

580 month to data..and its only the 3rd.. Gulp. 1000 plus by weeks end by the looks

Heavy rain spilling over into North Canterbury, Hanmer getting it this morning. Faint drizzle in Amberley, very refreshing after the dry heat lately.

The 120km west coast radar was looking nasty around Hokitika earlier.

Good rain here too, about 10mm so far

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/117885 ... ew-zealand

That thing on Lake Dunstan is almost certainly a landspout, is it not?

Not sure on that one, but in other areas it's certainly been windy in Wellington today and it's pretty gusty in Chch this evening. Nothing too unusual, but it's getting up a bit.

tornado in otago wow.


saw the video. wow. was kind of expecting a reported tornado from the south island this week


oh my gosh

Forecaster Aidan Pyselman said it was hard to confirm it had been a tornado without seeing proof of a funnel cloud, suggesting it may have instead been a very strong gust of wind.

i think it was a weak tornado/landspout. it was rotating clockwise which is how our tornadoes rotate. looks like a bigger version of the christchurch tornado. tornadoes dont have to be tornadoes with funnel clouds. they should know that by now.

2 photos from today looking west along the Canterbury Plains and Mt. Peel/4 Peaks.

That was just a wind gust on lake Dunstan.

Looks like a lot of gradient over the South Island in the coming days.

so a whirlwind gets called a tornado by the media
but an actual tornado gets called a mini tornado?

Stuff updated that earlier story later yesterday, with MS saying there had been no thunderstorms or heavy rain in the Cromwell area yesterday. In fact the video and nearby PWS's suggest a fairly sunny afternoon around that time.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/otago/117915877 ... ke-dunstan


My guess is that it was whirlwind similar to a dust-devil turned water-devil, but with NNE winds channelled down Lake Dunstan converging with the prevailing NW winds channelled down the Lowburn Valley to trigger the rotation. This area has a long history of whirlwinds, dust-devils, waterspouts and possible tornadoes.

Also note that gum trees grow very tall, very quickly, but have shallow root systems, making them vulnerable in high winds. In Australia, gum trees are known as 'widow makers' for the number of people killed sheltering under them during storms, as they naturally drop big branches during storms for stability.

Im thinking it was a whirlwind now too


they always seem to get these damaging tornado strength dust devils/whirlwinds. i remember cromwell was hit by a series of dust devils in 1 day in which some media used that stupid term "mini tornado"