UK Weather - Winter 2019/20

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Tue 03/12/2019 00:43

Winter 2019/20 has started on the cool side with mostly sunny days and frosty nights - a complete contrast to last winter when it was very mild and wet at the start of December. The lowest temperature of the winter (so far) was recorded on Sunday morning (1st December) when -10.3°C was measured at Tulloch Bridge in the western highlands of Scotland. Milder air is now toppling into Scotland, but England + Wales will see a couple more decent dry days with a frost at night. This morning (Mon 2nd Dec), a minimum of -6.7°C was recorded at RAF Benson in southern England and we had a lovely hoar frost here in the centre of Tiverton much of which is hanging on in the shade as we approach noon.

Later in the week, as the high moves further south and east into Europe, we will see the return of much milder south westerlies and rain bearing weather systems. It will be the turn of western Scotland to get the rain as upwards of 100mm is predicted for the western slopes of the Highlands for Thurs/Fri. This will make up for a dry November.

No sign yet of any prolonged cold or snow, but there is plenty of chatter about a possible SSW event in mid-late December, but chatter does not an event make and recent SSW's have generally phased towards the USA and they have had the resulting cold weather.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 08/12/2019 21:41

Much milder weather has prevailed for the last few days after the mid-week frosts and we have seen more rain, although not on the scale of Oct/Nov (yet), although there has been a fair bit of rain in the last few days in NW Scotland - which is the norm for winter up there. The temperature fell to -5.7°C at South Farnborough (Hampshire) on Thursday morning, but the days have been much milder and Murlough (in N Ireland) recorded a maximum of 14.2°C on the same day as the milder air pushed in from the NW.

Met Eireann have named the first storm this Winter - Atiyah - and we are beginning to feel its effects. It was quite windy o/night into Sunday (8th Dec) morning, but it is a very complicated system with three centres on the 0600GMT chart this morning - of 956mb, 958mb and 975mb - and it is the latter centre that will bring the strongest winds (from the W-NW) overnight Sunday into Monday, when we could see gusts in excess of 80mph in the SW of England and over southern and western Eire.

The CET for December was 5.4°C (+0.3°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 8mm up to the 6th, which is 8% of the monthly average of 96mm.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Tue 10/12/2019 23:31

Storm Atiyah gave us a windy period from Sunday night into Monday and the windiest weather I have experienced so far here in Tiverton - the town appears to generally be quite well sheltered by the moors of Dartmoor and Exmoor which stretch from the south through west to the north of the town, but despite this, the winds last night were from the WNW and were very gusty. A monitoring site on a factory in the centre of the town reported a gust of 58mph. Highest gusts I can find were in Eire and more south western parts of the UK:

83mph at the Old Battery, Needles (Isle of Wight)
80mph at Newport Furnace (Co Mayo) + Riches Point (Co Cork)
77mph at Aberdaron (NW Wales)
75mph at Mace Head (Co Galway)
74mph at Aberporth (SW Wales) + Sherkin Island (Co Cork)

The Fastnet Lighthouse on the SW coast of Eire reported a max gust of 98mph, but this site is very exposed. Thankfully, the effects of this storm were not too bad:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50705476

Before the strong winds arrived on Sunday evening (as the low began to move away to the ENE), we had a one rumble thunderstorm in the early afternoon here in Tiverton with torrential rain and some small hail mixed in - thunder is not a frequent visitor in the SW, but unstable flows from the SW to the NW can give short storms in the winter due to the difference between the SST and the air temperature - we do get plenty of cold air aloft in these scenarios.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 14/12/2019 23:36

Wet + windy weather has prevailed this week and there does not appear to be any end in sight. It has not been cold, but the rain and wind (and lack of sunshine) have meant it has felt that way at times. Here in Tiverton it has been quite windy on some days (gusts to near 50mph) with plenty of showers or longer periods of rain, and we have had hail on three days this week - as the showers come off the warm seas surrounding the SW peninsula.

The next few days look as wet and windy as the past week, but with slightly colder air in place, there is the potential for some snow in the northern half of the UK and especially on the hills. Christmas Day has just come into range on the models and it is looking mild and dry at the moment, but this will doubtlessly change.

The CET for December was 5.8°C (+0.8°C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 44mm up to the 12th, which is 46% of the monthly average.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Tue 17/12/2019 00:17

The very unsettled weather has continued with plenty of hail showers and thunderstorms in the south on Sunday - and it was cold enough for snow in the north over the hills of Cumbria, Yorkshire and the Pennines. There were some quite sharp storms in the south of England, but as often happens on showery days, we missed all of them here in Tiverton - we had to be content with just plenty of rain showers and nice cloudscapes from the Cb's and their anvils.

There is much chatter (as usual) about whether it will be a 'white' Christmas, but at the moment, it is looking like being mild and wet. The plot below gives the possibility of sleet or snow falling in any given place on the day itself. Here in Tiverton, it looks like we have a 10-20% chance.

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 4606538752

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/12/2019 21:10

There will possibly be not much temperature difference between southern England and southern coastal parts of NZ this Xmas day, early days though for a Xmas forecast.

I have had 4 Xmas days in Uk with no white Xmas, I seem to recall one Xmas day getting up to a mild 14C with overcaste weather.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 19/12/2019 01:27

That may well be the case, spwill, as we can get very mild weather at times in the winter here in the UK. The Met Office have compiled some statistics for Christmas Day and the highest temperature recorded since 1910 (the current start of the digitised records) was 15.6°C at Killerton (Devon) in 1920. I can remember a few past Christmas Days getting close to that figure with the usual wet + windy weather attached.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/le ... -christmas

We have had a couple of days respite from the wet and windy weather and yesterday (Tues 17th Dec) was quite cold and dry with plenty of hazy sunshine and fog formed very early here in Tiverton. It spread over the town from the hills to the west and north just after 3pm (i.e. over an hour before it got dark) and persisted o/night before clearing around 5am this morning. The clearance allowed a touch of frost to develop as the fog seems to have restricted the o/night temperature fall to just above freezing in the fog, but the wind has now picked up (as has the temperature) and more rain is approaching from the west. We have 2 or 3 wet and windy days to look forward to - but there is more than a hint of something drier and cooler next week.

The CET for December was 5.5°C (+0.6°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 66mm up to the 16th, which is 69% of the monthly average.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 21/12/2019 00:47

We had one of those milder albeit cloudy days yesterday (Thurs 19th) with a maximum of 13.8°C at Teddington Bushy Park and 13.7°C at St James Park, London. Most places got into double figures, but this was tempered by yet more rain. The flooding has spread to SE England and has gained more prominence in the media as a result, but all areas of the UK have seen some flooding in the last few weeks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50863956

Here in Tiverton we have had just short of 50mm of rainfall in the last two and a half days and it is becoming a bit of an endurance test. That said, overall the last two years have been drier than normal, so I suppose this is just nature's way of restoring the balance.

More rain in the forecast on every day up to the 24th and then two dry days for us in the SW of England - and still staying mild. it would be nice to have dry weather over the Christmas period - we will be able to walk off the turkey without getting wet!

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 22/12/2019 13:31

A weak tornado occurred today (Saturday 21st Dec) in a south western suburb of London (Chertsey) at around 10:20am. Damage was reported to approx. 20 houses and a number of videos were posted on social media sites of the vortex crossing the main M25 London orbital motorway. The video on this news story is worth watching as we do not get many recordings of UK tornadoes and it has four.

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey ... w-17458893

The UK was in a broad SW flow with the main low to the NW of Scotland and with showers across more southern parts, including the London area. There was another deep low (962mb) out in the south west approaches. The tornado appears to have formed on a SW-NE orientated line of showers as it moved inland towards London.

A few more details on this BBC report:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50877501

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 25/12/2019 01:18

My initial suggestion of a 'weak' tornado on Saturday may have been a little premature. A site investigation has been completed and the TN appears to have a track of at least 5km and it has been rated at T3/T4 at its strongest point which is roughly equal to an EF1. Thankfully, when it crossed the main London orbital road (M25) it was weakening, as at its strongest it could well have shunted or flipped some of the many cars on the road at the time - a busy time on Saturday morning. The synoptic set up was a typical showery SW with returning polar maritime air on the SE side of a depression, so it will be interesting to see what additional factors produced this spin-up.

Otherwise, the weather has remained changeable with plenty more rain or showers and this run of lows from the Atlantic looks like continuing for a few more days. Thankfully, Christmas Day looks dry and sunny for most, but lots more rain is due on Boxing Day especially for us in the south. A thoroughly miserable run of weather for the last three months now, although to end on a positive note, there is some very mild air in the current model runs for later this week and over next weekend - this will keep the heating bills down.

The CET for December was 5.8°C (+0.9°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 109mm up to the 22nd, which is 114% of the monthly average.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 26/12/2019 22:38

Christmas Day was a lovely sunny day over most of the UK, albeit with a frosty start - so at least we had some whiteness for the festivities. Here in Tiverton the day dawned clear and frosty with a few fog patches drifting off the River Exe until mid-morning and it was sunny for most of the day with a max of 7°C, although a cirrus veil later in the afternoon did cut the sunshine out by 3pm to give a very atmospheric sunset at 4pm. This was just about the best day we have had for at least the last couple of months. It is back to the wind and rain now on Boxing Day morning.

For most the frost was a slight one, but in the Glens of the far north of Scotland it has been cold for the last 3 or 4 days with light winds trapping the cold air - resulting in a run of days with sharp frosts and clear sunny days with sub-zero maximums - quite a contrast to the rest of the country which has continued to endure the wind and rain. With a very southerly jet, they are far enough north to miss most of resulting weather systems and remain in the cooler air and allow radiation to take its course at the time of short daylight hours. Kinbrace (in Sutherland) had a minimum of -8.1°C on Christmas morning after a max of just -1°C on Christmas Eve.

The models are now consistent with what is known as a 'Bartlett High' taking up residence over central west Europe after tomorrow which will deflect the weather systems to the NW and give most of the UK dry, cloudy and mild weather. If the cloud breaks up, we could see maximums of 14/15°C before the New Year.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Fri 27/12/2019 05:45

Compliments of the Season to you, Simon - always enjoy reading your reports.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 28/12/2019 02:19

Thanks Orion, and compliments of the season to you and all users of NZ Weather Forum from a very mild UK.

After the lovely weather of Christmas Day, it was back to the wind and rain on Boxing Day here in the SW of the UK. It rained all day and became quite heavy and persistent from mid-afternoon - a local PWS just up the road from me recorded 29mm in the calendar day taking the monthly total to 185mm for December. Thankfully, that should be the last of the rain for a few days as high pressure to our south pushes the weather fronts back to the NW of Scotland where they more often reside. Depending on the exact wind direction, we might see some breaks in the cloud over the next few days and that will lift the temperature into the very mild category - if it remains cloudy it will be like today (Fri 27th) and stay dull with an afternoon maximum of around 11/12°C.

The CET for December was 5.8°C (+1.0°C) up to the 26th and the EWR was 114mm up to the 25th which is 119% of the monthly average. There are some quite big regional differences in the rainfall figures.

The Met Office have provided a brief seasonal summary for 2019:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... rview-2019

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 28/12/2019 11:25

Simon Culling wrote: ↑Thu 26/12/2019 22:38 Christmas Day was a lovely sunny day over most of the UK, albeit with a frosty start -

Thanks for your contributions Simon, all the best for the festive season and New Year. My daughter appreciated the beautiful Christmas Day.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Tue 31/12/2019 13:03

No problem, Rupert. We all enjoyed the sunshine and we have been treated to mostly dry weather since Boxing Day, apart for some rain in NW Scotland. Whilst it has not been overly mild, we have seen the overnight cloud (low stratus) break and clear to watery sunshine in the afternoons and this has made a lovely change from all the wind and rain of the past 2-3 months.

Some very mild air was caught up in the system that gave the rain to NW Scotland on Saturday and Sunday (28th/29th Dec) and it pulsed over the coastal area during the early hours of Sunday morning and combined with a foehn effect from the nearby mountains, some sites surpassed 15°C and a high of 16.9°C was recorded around 3am at Cassley in the NW Highlands - just about as high as it can get at the turn of the year when incoming radiation is so low.

And we had another case of unusual warmth today (Mon 30th Dec) in the SW of England as a low level inversion trapped the low cloud and fog (and colder air) on much of the lower ground, whilst the higher parts of Dartmoor (above about 300m or so amsl) were sunny with temperatures up to 14°C. Here in Tiverton in the Exe valley, the low cloud cleared at lunchtime to give us a sunny afternoon, but the high was only 10°C. The attached sounding for 12:00 today from Camborne (on the SW tip of Cornwall) shows the inversion well.

Camborne Sounding 1200Z 30th Dec 2019.png

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Fri 03/01/2020 05:43

The generally dry weather has continued into the New Year, although it has been very dull and cloudy. Today (Thurs 2nd Jan) in Tiverton it is breezy with low base Sc and a temperature of 11°C, so very mild. The generally mild conditions will continue but there is now some rain + showers in the forecasts - but thankfully not as wet as the previous 2-3 months.

A number of even higher temperatures were recorded overnight Sat/Sun (28th/29th Dec) than mentioned in my last post. A Met Office site has exceeded the previous December UK maximum temperature with a figure of 18.7°C reported at Achfary in the early hours of Sunday morning and this site is also located in NW Scotland. If this measurement pass quality control, it will beat the old record of 18.3°C set on 2nd December 1948 at Achnashellach, which is also in the NW Highlands.

An interesting event occurred last month when a large number of starlings were found dead on a road in Anglesey, an island off the NW coast of Wales. There were numerous theories (and the usual conspiratorial ones) about the possible cause, but the most likely seems to be that they were disorientated by sunshine reflected from a wet road and died from the trauma of impacting the road. Investigations continue but I think poisoning has been ruled out following toxicological tests on the dead birds. I have occasionally seen these mass murmurations and often wondered how they don't crash into one another.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50741457

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Fri 03/01/2020 07:53

^ very odd about the birds.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 06/01/2020 02:40

I agree, Orion. Further tests are being conducted and hopefully we will have a clearer explanation. It appears that this is not a one-off event as a number of previous reports have come to light. The murmerations are a fantastic sight to see and generally seem to occur close to dusk.

The weather has remained mild in the UK with bits and pieces or rain or drizzle and not much in the way of sunshine. The jet streams looks like it will be re-invigorated over the next few days with much more unsettled weather for the UK and generally a little cooler, although Tuesday looks like it could be exceptionally mild before the cooler weather arrives. This winter has been gentle on the fuel bills so far.

The final CET for December was 5.8°C (+1.1°C) making it the second coldest month of the year. The final EWR for December was 122mm which is 127% of the monthly average and making it the fourth wettest month of the year. The overall CET for the year of 2019 was 10.34°C to give an anomaly of +0.83°C above the 1961-1990 mean.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 09/01/2020 11:24

Tuesday (7th Jan) was indeed very mild over all of the UK with the date record being broken by a small amount. The mercury reached 15.3°C at Murlough (Co Down, N Ireland) and 15.2°C at Hawarden in NE Wales and even higher figures were reported from parts of the N Wales coast, but there isn't an official station in this location anymore. The January record of 18.3°C was recorded at Aber on the north Wales coast in both 1958 + 1971.

The Met Office have produced a summary of the weather for the website 'Carbon Brief' which is worth a read - it seems to be an annual affair as there is a link to a similar report for 2018.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post- ... er-in-2019

The weather has become more mobile in the last day or so and we have a wet and windy spell to look forward to until at least the middle of next week. It will be somewhat cooler, but more so in northern areas. Still mild for those of us in the south.

The CET for January was 7.1°C (+3.6°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 6mm up to the 6th, which is 7% of the monthly average of 91mm.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 13/01/2020 02:55

As indicated above, the weather has become a lot more mobile here in the UK with a succession of weather systems rushing across the Atlantic towards us - the sharp temperature contrast over N America is certainly powering up the jet stream. We are expecting the next system to undergo explosive cyclogenesis in the next day or so as it races across the pond, but thankfully it will curve north towards Iceland and the UK will only be on the fringe of the worst of the winds. The system is currently (at 12:00GMT on Sunday 12th Jan) moving away from Newfoundland at 988mb but it is expected to be in the eastern Atlantic by 06:00 tomorrow morning at 943mb - i.e. a drop of 45mb in 18 hours. The map below (courtesy of the Met Office) is the forecast chart for midday tomorrow (Mon 13th Jan) when the UK will begin to experience Storm Brendan as it has been named.

The Met Office is forecasting gales for most parts and gusts up to 85mph in NW Scotland on Monday. A secondary depression will develop to the SE of the main system and cross the centre of the UK on Tues/Weds and this feature will give a much windier day for more southern and eastern parts of the UK than Monday with gusts expected to 60-70mph at the present time. This system needs to be watched as it could deepen further than currently expected and it is likely to be moving very quickly.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 16/01/2020 00:42

Storm Brendan has moved away (got as low as 939mb) to be near Iceland this morning and the secondary low (979mb) has crossed the UK and is now into Scandinavia. Both gave us a couple of windy and wet days, but thankfully, not too much damage or injury. Highest gusts on Monday were in the west and northwest, but on Tuesday, they were in more southern parts of the UK. Highest gusts were:

Monday
87mph at South Uist Range (Western Isles)
84mph at Roche Point (SW Eire)
82mph at Stornoway Port (Isle of Lewis)
81mph at Benbecula Airport (Outer Hebridies)

Tuesday
82mph at Needles Old Battery (Isle of Wight)
77mph at Capel Curig (NW Wales)
67mph at Southampton Oceanography Centre
61mph at RAF Odiham (Hants - well inland)
59mph at Biggin Hill (Kent) + Kenley (Surrey) - both well inland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-b ... e-51117465

After more wind and rain tomorrow (Thursday) we will see a large rise in pressure over the UK and the weather will settle down and become cooler with some sunny days and frosty nights.

The CET for January was 7.4°C (+3.9°C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 39mm up to the 13th which is 43% of the monthly average.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 19/01/2020 00:58

Finally the rain has ended and we awoke to a sunny but frosty morning today, Saturday 18th January - this was the first frost of the year here in Tiverton. Thurs/Fri were wet and quite windy with some hail and even a little sleet in the showers yesterday as it turned cooler, but a high pressure is building quickly north from the continent and will continue to do so all weekend with the models forecasting a central pressure of around 1050mb by the end of Sunday - it is not often we see a pressure that high in the UK. It should be lovely and sunny today and tomorrow with frosty nights, but after that more moisture will become trapped in the high and the cloud will fill-in to give us a mostly dry but cloudy week ahead.

The CET for January was 7.4°C (+3.9°C) up to the 17th and this is close to the record for the month as a whole which stands at 7.5°C from way back in 1916. However, it should be a little cooler for the rest of the month so the record should be safe. The EWR was 62mm up to the 16th, which is 68% of the monthly average - not much will be added to this total in the next week or so.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 19/01/2020 23:49

Simon Culling wrote: ↑Sun 19/01/2020 00:58 Fo so all weekend with the models forecasting a central pressure of around 1050mb by the end of Sunday - it is not often we see a pressure that high in the UK. It should be lovely and sunny today and tomorrow with frosty nights, but after that more moisture will become trapped in the high and the cloud will fill-in to give us a mostly dry but cloudy week ahead.

I see that very intense high in the models.
Interesting to see what the pressure gets up to.
Hope it's not a dirty high and you get clagg from it because of it's intensity

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 22/01/2020 12:52

Pressure readings of just above 1050mb were recorded at a number of stations in south and south western parts of the UK, but the actual 'high' has not yet been reported - I presume quality checks are still in progress. The map below (courtesy of the Met Office) shows the anticyclone centred over the south of the UK at midnight Sun/Mon (19th/20th January 2020) at 1050mb which was just about its peak. It has given much of the southern half of the UK four clear and sunny days with frost at night and this has been a welcome relief from all the rain.

The highest readings I can find from the hourly synoptic reports are 1050.4mb at Mumbles Coastguard and Sennybridge (both in S Wales) and RAF Dunkeswell (Devon) and 1050.3mb at Liscombe (Somerset).

The record high pressure reading for the UK is currently 1053.6mb which was recorded at Aberdeen (Scotland) on 31st January 1902.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 25/01/2020 06:01

The reasons for the very high pressure we saw in the UK last week are linked to the strong jet stream and the re-distribution of air from aloft when this jet became confined. Some useful explanations below for those looking for more information.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/ ... nel=social

https://twitter.com/MetOffice_Sci/statu ... 6554757124

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Highe ... ordkeeping

After the lovely sunny days earlier this week, it has been cloudy and dull with plenty of mist/fog since Wednesday and rather cool under all that murk. The jet stream will move south over the weekend and the weather will liven up over the UK with plenty more wind and rain in the offing next week.

The CET for January was 6.5°C (+2.9°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 64mm up to the 22nd which is 70% of the monthly average.

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