White Island.

[NZstorm]

Alert level 2 for an active crater is probably a good signal not to go there.

[tornado]

Police now say the people still on the island is likely to be dead so 13 people has appeared to have died so far. it has been showing signs of eruptions on and off this year. well some familys are going to have a sad christmas this year.

[jamie]

The picture of the crater at 2.10 shows about 8 people right at the crater. No chance for those people sadly. They wouldn’t have even had time to react I would think and died instantly. Very sad.


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[BeaconHill]

Certainly an horrific tragedy. Will be a huge loss to the local (and international) community not only in lives, but in the aftermath which will surely see on island activities limited in the future.

Wired.com had published an article back in 2012, and made this statement.....

"For the White Island tours, people are given protective equipment like gas masks and helmets, but if even a small phreatic (steam-driven) explosion were to happen when a group was in the crater, the consequences could be catastrophic".

https://www.wired.com/2012/08/how-dange ... te-island/

[tornado]

Yesterday was definatly a dark day. prayers for those families who lost their loved ones.

[tornado]

now reports of a earthquake


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12292547


what is going on!!!!

[Awhituobs]

there has and will always be earthquakes in the eastern NI
there has been a few big ones lately near Gisborne
might be related to the slow slip earth quake that has been occuring
will not be related to the steam eruption

[tornado]

yeah i dont think it would be related to the eruption either. very terrible event. proberly gonna be dominating the world media and news for a little while. preyers to the families with injured or lost ones.

[tornado]

wow lots of reports in the media. all over the world. reports starting to come in saying there is a 50-50 chance of another eruption in the next 24 hours.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I doubt it., the crater has released it's sealing.

[tornado]

yeah i dont think there will be another eruption now aswell. really sad and tragic event before christmas too.

[tgsnoopy]

Sad news that it's now 6 deceased and 8 missing presumed deceased.

[Awhituobs]

some heroic rescue stories coming out

[Razor]

Geonet reporting increased activity/ volcanic tremor this morning, could be a bad day to attempt any recovery missions to the island unfortunately

[Cyclone Tracy]

The GeoNet drum around the crater is showing a continuous and strengthening volcanic tremor over the last 12 hours. Only 6 alert levels but it seems she is currently an unofficial 3.5.

White Island 1112 3.jpg

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tremor seismic waves have been now joined by stronger regular volcanic earthquakes over the last 4 hours.

White Island 1112 4.jpg

[David]

Strongest volcanic tremor at White Island since 2016 according to Geonet.

[jamie]

Yea and check out the scale on that drum. Up to 3000 and it’s blowing out as earth quakes. It’s boiling up big time. Pretty sure there was a discussion in the last about White Island around its last eruption. Need to look back at it and see what the tremor was like then and what scale was used.


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[tgsnoopy]

Yea and check out the scale on that drum. Up to 3000 and it’s blowing out as earth quakes. It’s boiling up big time. Pretty sure there was a discussion in the last about White Island around its last eruption. Need to look back at it and see what the tremor was like then and what scale was used.

Interesting they set the scale on the summit one to 500000 scale so it shows next to nothing. I suspect they did this in case there is a big one.

[Awhituobs]

I see now GNS saying the local helicoper pilots, who know the island very well, could have retrieved the bodies the next day?
hindsight is a wonderfull thing

[Razor]

I see now GNS saying the local helicoper pilots, who know the island very well, could have retrieved the bodies the next day?
hindsight is a wonderfull thing

Possible but the tremor has escalated rapidly in the last 36 hours. While they've reduced underlying status back to a Level 2 this morning this means little in view of the elevated activity.

As far as I'm concerned I would not want a single foot set near that island until the seismographs and gas readings fall back

[Awhituobs]

there is rain due this coming week
and that will turn the ash into slosh?, ie will make it harder to be able to walk around and retrieve bodies etc?
or maybe it will quickly get washed away?

[Cyclone Tracy]

Interesting point the rain next week, it may have an explosive side effect on the existing pressure cooker. Jamie early in the thread made mention of this point as well. Some studies have linked heavy rainfall events to eruptions.

Without knowing the state of the magma chamber or it's current depth etc, there would be a possibility that heavy rain could seep into cracks around the vent, producing more steam, pressure and ultimately another steam eruption. Still quite a lot of uncertain on the position of the surface low next week but some models have a torrential convergence in the Bay of Plenty next Tuesday morning. Attached is the CMC 3 hour rain total on Tuesday evening

CMC 1112 12Z.jpg

[David]

The White Island drum looking pretty intense, that's some serious tremor. Looks to be steaming a fair bit on the Whakatane webcam.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Yes, increasingly intense tremor. A higher frequency gliding signature is now appearing on the spectrograms, suggesting higher energy and maybe magma is becoming more involved. I'd say that's why GeoNet has increased the chances for another eruption within 24 hours.

Spectogram WI 2pm 1212.jpg