White Island.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 12/12/2019 15:54

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 12/12/2019 14:38 Yes, increasingly intense tremor. A higher frequency gliding signature is now appearing on the spectrograms, suggesting higher energy and maybe magma is becoming more involved. I'd say that's why GeoNet has increased the chances for another eruption within 24 hours.

Spectogram WI 2pm 1212.jpg

And now they are planning to recover people tomorrow.

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Thu 12/12/2019 15:57

yeah
probably because its taken all this time to nut out a detailed action plan?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 12/12/2019 16:07

They are absolutely crazy for going tomorrow. That thing is ready to pop!

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Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 12/12/2019 21:07

It's interesting to note that the epicentre of GeoNet's 115 km deep (±12 km) M5.9, less than 15 days before the eruption and about 13 km NNW NNE of White Island, has an 11.3 km latitudinal and a 6.6 km longitudinal margin of error, which means the hypocentre could well have been directly below White Island's crater. Given how deep the quake was though, I'm not sure if there would be any correlation with Monday's eruption?

Edit: Meant '...NNE of White Island'.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 12/12/2019 21:13

Nev wrote:It's interesting to note that the epicentre of GeoNet's 115 km deep (±12 km) M5.9, less than 15 days before the eruption and about 13 km NNW of White Island, has an 11.3 km latitudinal and a 6.6 km longitudinal margin of error, which means the hypocentre could well have been directly below White Island's crater. Given how deep the quake was though, I'm not sure if there would be any correlation with Monday's eruption?

Yea interesting but na it’s to deep to be any part of the eruption. Only other thing is shaking ground may have moved/allowed water and lava to move in the ground in a different manner to prior the earthquake?

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Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Fri 13/12/2019 06:53

so according to the news they are mounting a rescue this morning
so up till now the argument that it was too dangerous to go does not hold
instead why do they just not say it has taken to this time to create a detailed plan?

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Fri 13/12/2019 07:42

The scale on the summit graph reduced from 500k to 400k overnight. a slight reduction in tremor on the crater graph (It's not in the red as much). Have a bad feeling & hope no one else gets hurt.
https://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/drums

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 13/12/2019 10:29

Looks like its taking a while due to the heavy protective gear, but the volcano is behaving

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 13/12/2019 14:32

The spectrogram on the summit is still showing gliding activity between the 5 to 10 Hz, possible rising magma at a guess. This would be concerning GeoNet I would think and probably the one of the reasons behind the eruption risk staying at the same level today. 'Seismic screams' can occur around 15 to 20 Hz just before a magma related eruption.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 13/12/2019 19:15

Whakaari has commenced an eerie almost tremor silence phase since 6:30pm

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 13/12/2019 19:40

Cyclone Tracy wrote:Whakaari has commenced an eerie almost tremor silence phase since 6:30pm

Yea I just did my near hourly geek check haha and noticed the same thing. Creepy indeed.

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Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Sat 14/12/2019 06:32

so weird
it just stopped rumbling all of a sudden
maybe the eruption caused a problem with the equipment and while they were on the island they fixed it? (loose connection?)
or not?
(as there is 2 white island drums and the other never showed the same thing ?)

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 14/12/2019 07:27

A period of near silence for over 13 hours. Equipment seems ok as there has been very small spikes on occasions. The summit drum is currently set to a scale of 300000 and the other drum is set low at 3000 which explains the recording level difference.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 14/12/2019 07:28

They did record the same thing. Just the scales on the drums are different

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sat 14/12/2019 08:18

Summit drum further reduced this morning (now 200k). It does seem unusual. I know nought, but do wonder if the tremor was from steam escaping but the water turning to steam may have just become depleted.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 14/12/2019 12:00

In the latest update are they saying there was a very minor ash eruption that stopped the tremor?

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Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 14/12/2019 13:23

A little hard to tell if GeoNet believe the 2 are related as they didn't mention the timing of the ash emission. One interesting take I took away from the update was the quote "Overnight web camera images recorded a glow from the vent area, confirming high heat flow". Unlike before the eruption, it seems like the magma is near the surface which would be still a high concern for the volcanologists.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 15/12/2019 08:44

Summit trace now has a scale of 20k down from 100k last night. Crater still on 3k. Feeling a lot better about them being back on the Island searching now the shaking has settled back down. I hope they are successful in the continued search.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 16/12/2019 08:50

That's deepish M5.0 quake under Whakaari last night had a penetrating S wave when it arrived here 36 seconds later. Wave lasted around 2 and half minutes. A virtually identical location to the M5.9 on 24th Nov.

5.0 Whakaari.jpg

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 16/12/2019 09:10

Good informative update posted by Geonet yesterday https://www.geonet.org.nz/news/23N4w6Q2oH084ptQWcsYiZ

They mention magma is possibly only a few 10s of meters below the surface... really shallow!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 16/12/2019 10:00

David wrote: ↑Mon 16/12/2019 09:10 Good informative update posted by Geonet yesterday https://www.geonet.org.nz/news/23N4w6Q2oH084ptQWcsYiZ

They mention magma is possibly only a few 10s of meters below the surface... really shallow!

That happened a few years back, formed a lava dome which slowly cooled as things settled down

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Mon 16/12/2019 18:24

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 16/12/2019 08:50 That's deepish M5.0 quake under Whakaari last night had a penetrating S wave when it arrived here 36 seconds later. Wave lasted around 2 and half minutes. A virtually identical location to the M5.9 on 24th Nov.

5.0 Whakaari.jpg

I just checked those quakes. Neither were under White Island. First on Sun 24th Nov was approx 14 km NNE, Second on Sun Dec 15th was approx 12 km NNE. Even considering max margin for error I would have thought they pretty much shouldn't be related to the island (Note that I am not saying they aren't). Maybe the fissure the Magma rises in is on a huge angle?

Specifics, Sun 24th Nov 5.34am, Magnitude 5.9 depth 115 km (+/- 12 km), Lat S 37.42 (+/- 11.3 km) Long E 117.26 (+/- 6.12 km)
Sun 15th Dec 10.52pm, Magnitude 5.0 depth 133 km (+/- 6 km), Lat S 37.43 (+/- 5.8 km) Long E 117.22 (+/- 4.5 km)

White Island is approx S 37.52 E 177.18 Margin of errors in brackets as supplied on GeoNet.

https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/te ... 019p941652

https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/te ... 019p882948

Volcanoes are fascinating things. I do hope this tragedy doesn't spell the end of those tours.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 16/12/2019 20:20

tgsnoopy wrote: ↑Mon 16/12/2019 18:24
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 16/12/2019 08:50 That's deepish M5.0 quake under Whakaari last night had a penetrating S wave when it arrived here 36 seconds later. Wave lasted around 2 and half minutes. A virtually identical location to the M5.9 on 24th Nov.

5.0 Whakaari.jpg
I just checked those quakes. Neither were under White Island. First on Sun 24th Nov was approx 14 km NNE, Second on Sun Dec 15th was approx 12 km NNE. Even considering max margin for error I would have thought they pretty much shouldn't be related to the island (Note that I am not saying they aren't). Maybe the fissure the Magma rises in is on a huge angle?

Specifics, Sun 24th Nov 5.34am, Magnitude 5.9 depth 115 km (+/- 12 km), Lat S 37.42 (+/- 11.3 km) Long E 117.26 (+/- 6.12 km)
Sun 15th Dec 10.52pm, Magnitude 5.0 depth 133 km (+/- 6 km), Lat S 37.43 (+/- 5.8 km) Long E 117.22 (+/- 4.5 km)

White Island is approx S 37.52 E 177.18 Margin of errors in brackets as supplied on GeoNet.

https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/te ... 019p941652

https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/te ... 019p882948

Volcanoes are fascinating things. I do hope this tragedy doesn't spell the end of those tours.

Here is GeoNet compared to the USGS and the private network I'm on. There is some mathematical debate across the agencies on exact locations of the quakes

BOP M5+ quakes.jpg

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 17/12/2019 05:06

Regardless if it was under it or not, given the depth, in my opinion they are not volcanic I nature. That’s not to say they do not cause changes in the volcanic state of the volcano.

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Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 17/12/2019 08:50

I'm certainly no volcanologists but I know there is plenty of uncertainty in this field which has been quite apparent in the last week. So much more to learn.

Here is some food for thought, I've just done some research associated with the major eruption on 27 July 2000. There were 4 deep quakes within 15 to 30km of Whakaari in the 3 weeks leading up to the 27 July eruption ranging from 3.8 to 4.2.

Whakaari July 2000.jpg

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