Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

[tornado]

um metservice has taken tommorow afternoon thunderstorm chart off for some reason. they have tommorows morning up but nothing about the afternoon. strange.

Yes. I noticed that too. Now the morning's one gone as well.
Maybe they are up dating their thunderstorm page?
A nice fancy one will do with lighting bolts showing where the most likely thunderstorms will occur?

now its back

[Cyclone Tracy]

Model projections locally for today from this morning runs. Currently on 1.4mm at 8am.

Access R 50 to 60mm
UK 30 to 40mm
French 30 to 40mm
MetService 15 to 25mm
Access G 15 to 25mm
GFS 10 to 20mm
Icon 10 to 20mm
EC 5 to 10mm
CMC 5 to 10mm

[David]

Sure hope the EC model is wrong on that... 5-10mm ain't much good given how dry it is now

[Cyclone Tracy]

Yes, EC is very light. An intense outlier is the BoM's higher resolution model Access R. It has upgraded significantly from the 06Z to 12Z run dropping 60 to 80mm in many parts of Auckland associated with strong convergence this afternoon. Seems far fetched based other models....

Access R 1612 12Z.jpg

[tornado]

I see on radar that downpours are coming in from the north. not thunderstorms as i cant see much lightning on blitz

[GraemeWi]

First thunder here in Albany - nothing really interesting and close on the wx radar?

[tornado]

have just had some rain here in takinini. no thunder though. i dont think auckland will get thunder today. just some heavy rain which is much needed. A even larger band of rain which is now clipping the top of the north island looks to be going south towards auckland so lets see how much rain that brings us. maybe a rumble of thunder?



edit severe wind watch issued by metservice.

[David]

Sounding really blustery in the CBD now. Had some moderate-heavy rain for a short period which seems to be easing now.

[tornado]

this is definatly the best rain we had for ages. and theres more to come. I am hoping for a rumble of thunder.

[GraemeWi]

Already up to 59mm at home in Swanson, a whole stream of heavy falls inbound from the north too. Peak rate of 73mm/hr

[David]

7mm here so far. With more on the way later today, should be the first day with 10mm+ for 2 months

[Awhituobs]

Heaps of rain at home I see
I am in northland. Not much here.it built as it went south
But northland will get more this afternoon

[jamie]

Very windy at the Auckland air port. Doing a family drop off. Planes taking off east are really crabbing sideways


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[tornado]

i see theres been some lightning in wakato. i wonder when auckland will get a good thunderstorm again.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Seems off topic but GeoNet are showing a M4.2 quake that has been verified near the centre of the developing low NW of Auckland. A strange coincidence. https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/2019p945771

[tornado]

wow the front is weakening really fast. well proberly no more rain and no thunderstorms.

only 8mm here today. I havnt heard a single rumble of thunder at all. disapointing.



edit: i see there some lightning coming in from the east. i will keep an eye on the radar and the blitz.

[Awhituobs]

There was a quake west of Auckland just after the Kaikoura one
Front is not weakening..will strengthen this arvo

[tornado]

yeah the front does look to be getting stornger again. lets see what we will get out of it this afternoon

[Cyclone Tracy]

baro 999.6 and falling, 21c with a 19c DP, wind NNE

[tornado]

reports of a tornado in wakato. plus flooding and high winds in auckland


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12294434

[ben g]

Interesting looking at the 120km akl radar- great barrier island seems to be spawing a continuous street of heavy rain that builds as it heads towards Thames.

[cbm]

Interesting looking at the 120km akl radar- great barrier island seems to be spawing a continuous street of heavy rain that builds as it heads towards Thames.

Oh dear. That vulnerable Thames Coast road just before the holiday period. Plus some parts of Thames are low lying and prone to flash flooding from the hills.

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[Cyclone Tracy]

PWS just north of Helensville currently showing a 92mm/hr rainfall rate and 72mm for the day so far.

[tornado]

severe thunderstorm watch issued for most of the upper north island. including auckland. I am wishing for some thunder but it just wont happen where i am in auckland these days

[David]

Finally getting some heavy rain in Auckland city