Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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tornado
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Mon 16/12/2019 22:43
tornado wrote: Mon 16/12/2019 21:00 um metservice has taken tommorow afternoon thunderstorm chart off for some reason. they have tommorows morning up but nothing about the afternoon. strange.
Yes. I noticed that too. Now the morning's one gone as well.
Maybe they are up dating their thunderstorm page?
A nice fancy one will do with lighting bolts showing where the most likely thunderstorms will occur?
now its back :)
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Model projections locally for today from this morning runs. Currently on 1.4mm at 8am.

Access R 50 to 60mm
UK 30 to 40mm
French 30 to 40mm
MetService 15 to 25mm
Access G 15 to 25mm
GFS 10 to 20mm
Icon 10 to 20mm
EC 5 to 10mm
CMC 5 to 10mm
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by David »

Sure hope the EC model is wrong on that... 5-10mm ain't much good given how dry it is now
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Yes, EC is very light. An intense outlier is the BoM's higher resolution model Access R. It has upgraded significantly from the 06Z to 12Z run dropping 60 to 80mm in many parts of Auckland associated with strong convergence this afternoon. Seems far fetched based other models....
Access R 1612 12Z.jpg
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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I see on radar that downpours are coming in from the north. not thunderstorms as i cant see much lightning on blitz
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by GraemeWi »

First thunder here in Albany - nothing really interesting and close on the wx radar?
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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have just had some rain here in takinini. no thunder though. i dont think auckland will get thunder today. just some heavy rain which is much needed. A even larger band of rain which is now clipping the top of the north island looks to be going south towards auckland so lets see how much rain that brings us. maybe a rumble of thunder?



edit severe wind watch issued by metservice.
Last edited by tornado on Thu 19/12/2019 09:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by David »

Sounding really blustery in the CBD now. Had some moderate-heavy rain for a short period which seems to be easing now.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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this is definatly the best rain we had for ages. and theres more to come. I am hoping for a rumble of thunder.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by GraemeWi »

Already up to 59mm at home in Swanson, a whole stream of heavy falls inbound from the north too. Peak rate of 73mm/hr
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by David »

7mm here so far. With more on the way later today, should be the first day with 10mm+ for 2 months :)
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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Heaps of rain at home I see
I am in northland. Not much here.it built as it went south
But northland will get more this afternoon
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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Very windy at the Auckland air port. Doing a family drop off. Planes taking off east are really crabbing sideways


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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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i see theres been some lightning in wakato. i wonder when auckland will get a good thunderstorm again.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Seems off topic but GeoNet are showing a M4.2 quake that has been verified near the centre of the developing low NW of Auckland. A strange coincidence. https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/2019p945771
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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wow the front is weakening really fast. well proberly no more rain and no thunderstorms.

only 8mm here today. I havnt heard a single rumble of thunder at all. disapointing.



edit: i see there some lightning coming in from the east. i will keep an eye on the radar and the blitz.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by Awhituobs »

There was a quake west of Auckland just after the Kaikoura one
Front is not weakening..will strengthen this arvo
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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yeah the front does look to be getting stornger again. lets see what we will get out of it this afternoon
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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baro 999.6 and falling, 21c with a 19c DP, wind NNE
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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reports of a tornado in wakato. plus flooding and high winds in auckland


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12294434
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

Unread post by ben g »

Interesting looking at the 120km akl radar- great barrier island seems to be spawing a continuous street of heavy rain that builds as it heads towards Thames.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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ben g wrote:Interesting looking at the 120km akl radar- great barrier island seems to be spawing a continuous street of heavy rain that builds as it heads towards Thames.
Oh dear. That vulnerable Thames Coast road just before the holiday period. Plus some parts of Thames are low lying and prone to flash flooding from the hills.

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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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PWS just north of Helensville currently showing a 92mm/hr rainfall rate and 72mm for the day so far.
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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severe thunderstorm watch issued for most of the upper north island. including auckland. I am wishing for some thunder but it just wont happen where i am in auckland these days
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Re: Thunderstorms around the North Island - Dec 16-17

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Finally getting some heavy rain in Auckland city
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