Isolated Thunderstorms for Canterbury - 6 Jan 2020.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

MS have forecasted isolated thunderstorms for Canterbury tomorrow.
I wonder if this will happen?

[Storm Struck]

I was surprised to see this given theres absoloutly no instability in the models tomorrow apart from 100-200 cape south of Ashburton.
Even then theres no moisture at all and its strong westerly.
Wondering what they were looking at

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Maybe they are tending to overforcast as which they do a lot of these days, especially considering thunderstorm activity.
I liked it in the old days where they would forecast a southerly change which no mention of a thunderstorm but then a thunderstorm would happen.

[mikestormchaser]

Not to me, low chance if anything

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Maybe they know something we don't know about
No mention of showers, in their forecast, that may be 'heavy' or 'thundery' but just isolated thunderstorms ?

[Richard]

Issued at 8:15am Monday 6 Jan 2020

Valid to Midnight Monday 6 Jan 2020

A strong southwest flow covers the country, and Severe Weather Warnings for strong winds remain in force for parts of central and southern New Zealand - see https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home for more detail.

Over Canterbury however, the combination of cold temperatures aloft and lighter onshore winds should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms about the Plains and foothills this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and hail of 10 to 20mm diameter (or possibly larger). If large hail does occur, it could cause damage to crops, orchards, glass-houses and vehicles, and make driving conditions hazardous.

A broader low risk of thunderstorms covers the southeast coast of Wairarapa, the remainder of Canterbury, eastern Otago, Southland, Fiordland, Westland and Buller, as indicated on the chart.

thunderstormOutlookImage.png

[Richard]

Just going through Amberley where it's blowing a NW, this will need to turn onshore which the MetS referring to in there outlook

[Razor]

Light NE and warming sun downtown ChCh right now. Could play into Huey's hands

[Razor]

Wee convergence activity over the SW of the city at present. Be interesting to see how long it hangs in there

[mikestormchaser]

Just doesnt look right today. I really dont see what MS is on about. Id love to be wrong though

[Richard]

Light NE and warming sun downtown ChCh right now. Could play into Huey's hands

Must be only a small area of onshore as it's blowing NW here Rangiora

[Razor]

Looks quite promising from the Port Hills. Good towering cumulus around, remains to.be seen if it can develop further

[dogmelon]

I remember a day in October 2002, the 26th?, like today where there were these early glaciated showers bubbling up ahead of a southerly with a brute of a thunderstorm later in the day, lots of hail.

Will it repeat? Maybe, maybe not.

[Razor]

Sugarloaf an hour ago

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I remember a day in October 2002, the 26th?, like today where there were these early glaciated showers bubbling up ahead of a southerly with a brute of a thunderstorm later in the day, lots of hail.

Will it repeat? Maybe, maybe not.

That was the day I chased a tornado near Halswell in Jimmy, my Morris minor car.
Not likely to do that today.

[Richard]

That was the day I chased a tornado near Halswell in Jimmy, my Morris minor car.
Not likely to do that today.

Left it it late anyway, take all day just to get to Halswell in Jimmy.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Temperature drop here with the westerlies finally dying out and turning NE and becoming fresh.
No real change in the sky however.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Here's a photo I took today of the unlikely chance of a thunderstorm for Canterbury for today.
There is a bit of scud in the right hand corner of the photograph of the impending NE onshore flow against the persistent westerly wind we had here today. Other scud forms did eventuate but disappeared quite quickly.

[Chris W]

It's sort of threatening a bit now but also looking like it's just going to fizz. Back home in Lyttelton now, would be nice to round off the holidays with a storm.

[TonyT]

A few light rain showers here this afternoon, but no sign of thunder or clouds big enough to generate it.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A bit of a non-event for this.
I was thinking of deleting the post but there were a few lightning strikes recorded off the coast half way between BP and the Chatham Islands.
Also some heavy showers north of Christchurch late this evening according to the Rakaia Rain Radar.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Today looking more thunderstormic especially towards the 4 Peaks/Mt. Peel area, than yesterday and there is no warnings out.