La Nina on the way?
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: La Nina on the way?
The BoM have just initiated a La Nina watch. North American agency models are getting quite excited.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
https://twitter.com/WeatherWatchNZ/stat ... 9099253767
weatherwatch thinks if we get a strong one we may be in for a wet summer?
weatherwatch thinks if we get a strong one we may be in for a wet summer?
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Re: La Nina on the way?
Looks as though the Southern Oscillation Index will drive the 90 day average into positive territory shortly... right now Darwin 1013 hPa, Tahiti 1015 hPa with anomalous low pressure over Indonesia, Australia and continued blocking highs west of South America. Suggesting that the Walker circulation is starting to strengthen.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
La Niña watch issued by the BOM today, they are rating it as having a 70% chance of developing this year:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
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Re: La Nina on the way?
Even the North Island had a drought during a La Nina. (2007-08 to be exact).
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Re: La Nina on the way?
NIWA talking up a possible early-season tropical disturbance in account of La Niña in their seasonal outlook, and a universally warm and dry spring:
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-cli ... ember-2020
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-cli ... ember-2020
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Re: La Nina on the way?
SOI and NINO index heading more and more towards La Nina
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: La Nina on the way?
USA have declared it as well
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
- NZstorm
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Re: La Nina on the way?
La Nina will be good for inland thunderstorms/flash flooding. Maybe a few around Auckland.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
The BoM's statement today maintains the current La Nina alert with levels just shy of the official BoM La Nina threshold. They look like calling it in October.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
IMO, At the moment the standing wave needs to nudge east into the western Pacific to help amplify the La Nina north easterlies into NZ, when is the million dollar question but cyclone season could be interesting at the end of January into February.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
IMO, At the moment the standing wave needs to nudge east into the western Pacific to help amplify the La Nina north easterlies into NZ, when is the million dollar question but cyclone season could be interesting at the end of January into February.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
Serious upwelling now underway at around 100 metres depth in the central equatorial Pacific. Probably why the NASA model is going for a super La Nina within the next 6 weeks like 1973/74. The south Pacific will explode this summer if the standing wave anchors itself in the west Pacific.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
should mean good rain for Auckland to save the water crisis
the last big La Nina back in 89 it like rained nearly every day here in January
it might mean a flip flop to a big el nino to follow this, coinciding with an increase in sunspot activity
(my annual rain total going back 60 years here does have a 11 year sunspot signature)
the last big La Nina back in 89 it like rained nearly every day here in January
it might mean a flip flop to a big el nino to follow this, coinciding with an increase in sunspot activity
(my annual rain total going back 60 years here does have a 11 year sunspot signature)
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: La Nina on the way?
NOAA now going for an all out record Super La Nina in December, surpassing Spring and Summer of 1973 levels. NASA, UK and Access S not far behind in their projections. The weather pattern change in the subtropics around NZ will be extraordinary this summer if this verifies.
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- NZstorm
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Re: La Nina on the way?
Could be a terrible summer for Auckland and much of NZ!Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 29/09/2020 21:01 NOAA now going for an all out record Super La Nina in December, surpassing Spring and Summer of 1973 levels. NASA, UK and Access S not far behind in their projections. The weather pattern change in the subtropics around NZ will be extraordinary this summer if this verifies.
Southland/Central Otago and Manawatu/Whanganui/Taranaki may get a great summer due sheltering from the northeast.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
BOM declared it now too
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: La Nina on the way?
good we need a wet summer. to fill up the dams.NZstorm wrote: ↑Wed 30/09/2020 02:33Could be a terrible summer for Auckland and much of NZ!Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 29/09/2020 21:01 NOAA now going for an all out record Super La Nina in December, surpassing Spring and Summer of 1973 levels. NASA, UK and Access S not far behind in their projections. The weather pattern change in the subtropics around NZ will be extraordinary this summer if this verifies.
Southland/Central Otago and Manawatu/Whanganui/Taranaki may get a great summer due sheltering from the northeast.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
Auckland needs a wet Summer rather than another dry one. We still have water restrictions here at a time of year when we should have plenty of water.
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Re: La Nina on the way?
Totally agree, I do love sunny summer days but really don't want a third consecutive dry summer season. Especially with dams still 23% below normal.
- NZstorm
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Re: La Nina on the way?
I would prefer a mild La Nina were we can still get the afternoon convection but not the rainy windy days that can happen with lows from the north.