La Nina on the way?

[Awhituobs]

Wont be a vintage year for wine in many grape growing areas....except for ones in Otago?

[NZstorm]

Wont be a vintage year for wine in many grape growing areas....except for ones in Otago?

Martinborough might be ok.

Blenheim/Nelson will be fine provided low systems don't occur too often in Tasman with wet northerlies reaching upper South Island.

[spwill]

The 2011-12 La Nina event saw the wettest summer on record for Nelson region. It was also very wet across the North Island, Otago and South Canterbury. it was a dry summer over the west and south of the South Island.
The 2010-11 La Nina saw several deluge rainfall events during the summer, often associated with ex-tropical cyclones. Record or near-record high summer rainfall in parts of: Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Otago. A wet summer for many other regions.( from Niwa summary)

[Richard]

Wont be a vintage year for wine in many grape growing areas....except for ones in Otago?

Talking with a fella who does contracting work for the Waipara area vineyards, he said the fans and helicopters could not save the grapes from being damaged Wednesday morning

[Awhituobs]

Oh.we could hear them going in Blenheim too, which had a frost

[Cyclone Tracy]

Interesting to see which models are faring best this year in the Pacific. Here were the global model projections in May against the current Nino 3.4. Canadian, Euro and Japanese models have missed this event by a large margin. With the 3.4 zone continuing to cool in October, NASA projection is the stand out

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest NOAA and UK agency outputs Nino 3.4 projecting -2.0 and beyond La Nina's in December and NASA is going for -3.0. Extraordinary numbers and so far their modelling has been spot on.

If they verify, the last time a La Nina was this strong, was 1988-89. 2 ex-tropical cyclones paid a visit to NZ 's waters late December, early January.

[Cyclone Tracy]

NOAA Buoy on the equator at 140 degrees west has dropped half a degree in the last 24 hours at 1m depth. Now below 23c and around 3c below normal.

[Chris W]

Meanwhile the negative IOD ideas have gone away:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Bradley]

2010 and 2017 are the two prime analogue years I have been working off for winter/spring forecasting, also 2007 and 2013 to a lesser degree.

Tony do you have any ideas yet on what this extreme marine heatwave around NZ at the moment combined with a La Nina event might mean for NZ apart from more cyclones and low pressure systems impacting us?

[TonyT]

2010 and 2017 are the two prime analogue years I have been working off for winter/spring forecasting, also 2007 and 2013 to a lesser degree.

Tony do you have any ideas yet on what this extreme marine heatwave around NZ at the moment combined with a La Nina event might mean for NZ apart from more cyclones and low pressure systems impacting us?

Check out last night's livestream video from the Blue Skies Weather Facebook page for my thoughts.

I don't really get what you mean by "apart from more cyclones and low pressure systems impacting us?" ? Thats kind of the answer to your question isn't it?

[Awhituobs]

This weather pattern is reminding me of the summers of 88 and 89
That were la nina summers

[tornado]

yes and this is the reason for the daily heat showers thats been popping up around the north island lately i guess.

[Cyclone Tracy]

La Nina's cross equatorial south easterlies and a MJO pulse has turbo charged Super Typhoon Goni. 170 Knots, 884 hPa on landfall in the Philippines this morning, one the strongest tropical cyclones ever seen in recorded times on earth.

[Awhituobs]

woa!
thats insane

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

woa!
thats insane

No it;s not. with climate change and what the forecaster's predict, TC' are becoming more severe. . Also boring weather.

[Chris W]

MetService now talking about a strong La Niña in their outlook for summer. It might be time to retitle this thread as we’re now actually in Niña, though impacts have been sporadic in NZ so far due to the unusually strong polar vortex.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The La Nina atmosphere is ramping up. Large 850 hPa wind anomaly signal is developing and transitioning into the nino 4 region, rising air around SE Asia, MJO moving east and the standing wave has also moved east from Africa. The classic atmospheric La Nina signature is starting to line up and it looks aggressive. Interesting 2nd half of December is on the cards for the south pacific convergence zone, NZ and eastern OZ i'd say.

[treetop]

Long range forcast not showing much. Australian heat will bypass us this week. And very little convective activity/high humidity. A little early yet but I would expect mostly stationary high pressure systems near the Chattams and troughing extending onto the North Island from the north. This is an ideal setup for Inland storms and obviously an open gate for Cyclones later. I remember late Nov early Dec 2018. Some good convective storms for a week or so.

[NZstorm]

Long range forcast not showing much. Australian heat will bypass us this week. And very little convective activity/high humidity. A little early yet but I would expect mostly stationary high pressure systems near the Chattams and troughing extending onto the North Island from the north. This is an ideal setup for Inland storms and obviously an open gate for Cyclones later. I remember late Nov early Dec 2018. Some good convective storms for a week or so.

Yes, the current pattern is disappionting. Hopefully the Chathams high can set up by Xmas.

[Awhituobs]

a big high moving along south of Australia is set to move onto central or south NZ by the looks , sure enough, from mid December, by the look, going by the models...so La Nina pattern coming back

[tornado]

Yes the la Nina pattern returns mid November. Hopefully we get good rain this month

[David]

Yes the la Nina pattern returns mid November. Hopefully we get good rain this month

After this morning's sub-10C, I can forgive you for thinking it's early November

[tornado]

Yes the la Nina pattern returns mid November. Hopefully we get good rain this month

After this morning's sub-10C, I can forgive you for thinking it's early November

Gosh where's 2020 gone I meant December lol but has been cold in the mornings tho

[cbm]

Long way out but do see the familiar big slow moving high setting up from about the 11th in both main models now. 677mm YTD despite over 100mm last month. So could still not reach the 732mm recorded last year.

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