Tropical Cyclone Uesi - New Caledonia

[Cyclone Tracy]

UKMet run 12Z is delivering a high end cat 3 attack on New Caledonia next Tuesday. Icon, Access and EC are aligning with this scenario and projecting similar steering and speed around the subtropical ridge. GFS is taking a faster forward motion. Based on the UK's intensity projection, New Caledonians need to start tiding up their yards. Next cyclone name on the list is Uesi.

Attached is the UK's 12z run showing good symmetrical form when approaching near New Caledonia.

[CbFan]

I see that 91P is growing up nicely

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[Nev]

TC Uesi was named by Fiji Met early this morn, so thought it could do with its own thread.

[Awhituobs]

looks good overnight
looks like a tadpole
blocking high though...will the NI see any rain from it...

[Cyclone Tracy]

Advanced Dvorak technique now estimating 55 knots and 986 hPa. Latest stat pic continues to show an improved structure. Fiji Met have upgraded Uesi to a cat 2 and now projecting cat 3 within 24 hours near New Caledonia.

[Chris W]

Latest BOM Access output keeps Uesi around the tropics though the weekend and no poleward exit at least in the next 5 days due to a strong subtropical ridge. Could be bad news for the islands but also for places like Northland that could do with some decent rain.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Uesi on sunset, looking a bit more glamorous tonight. Officially around 60 knots and 982 hPa but the advanced Dvorak technique now estimating 77 knots and 970 hPa as the centre region cloud tops have warmed to -55c. Interesting 24 hours ahead for northern areas of New Caledonia.

[Nev]

Uesi is now a Severe Cat 3 TC at 976 hPa and strengthening according to Fiji Met.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Inner eyewall lightning within the last 6 hour giving a hint of intensification underway.

The highly fancied American high resolution hurricane model HWRF is producing a cyclonic RI phase in the next 24 hours to the west of NC.

[spwill]

The forecast track of the low through the west Tasman has an unusual look to it being so close to NSW.

[Razor]

Still lots of model volatility by the looks. GFS for one is flip flopping like a wet fish trying to decide the path later this week and into the weekend.

Watching with interest.

[Chris W]

BOM isn't interested in taking it south, GFS and EC are.

[Cyclone Tracy]

A partial eye has appeared in the last 30 min just north of NC.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Some dry air has now entered Uesi inner eyewall and eroding the structure slightly but Uesi is still packing a decent punch as a low end cat 3. Longer term, the transition to a subtropical storm will commence later tomorrow and Lord Howe Island looks to be the firing line Friday morning.

[Chris W]

Models are now converging on a path towards the lower South Island by early next week.

[Awhituobs]

they don't need the rain
but hopefully eventually some rain will make it to the dry parts of the north island and more lows from the tasman follow

[Razor]

they don't need the rain
but hopefully eventually some rain will make it to the dry parts of the north island and more lows from the tasman follow

Actually, 2/3rds of the eastern seaboard does. 12mm since Dec 18th. Parched in Canterbury

[Awhituobs]

Canterbury is more used to droughts though
https://niwa.co.nz/static/climate/smd_anom.png?1234
the soil moisture anomaly is not as bad as places in the NI

[Chris W]

they don't need the rain
but hopefully eventually some rain will make it to the dry parts of the north island and more lows from the tasman follow

Actually, 2/3rds of the eastern seaboard does. 12mm since Dec 18th. Parched in Canterbury

Think he meant Southland and the West Coast, basically this one looks like making the dry parts drier and the wet parts wetter. Plenty of time for change though.

[spwill]

I guess irrigation will be helping some farmers, not sure there is much irrigation Waikato/Northland.

[Razor]

Canterbury is more used to droughts though
https://niwa.co.nz/static/climate/smd_anom.png?1234
the soil moisture anomaly is not as bad as places in the NI

Don't forget fire risk. Its off the charts at the moment. All rain greatfully received.

Anyway thats for another topic. GFS has the remnants hanging around down there a long time, best part of a week.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Uesi's structure is falling apart as mid latitude wind shear rips it to shreds but their is still decent convection on the poleward side of the system. The wind field size has also increased with Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands now gusting around 60 km/h.

[Awhituobs]

yes lots of irrigation in canterbury for the farmers (I did do an Ag Sci Degree at Lincoln) as they have set that up over the years, as droughts are common
Very little irrigation in the north island for farmers, as big droughts are less common (e.g only every 20 years?)

latest ECMWF run now not as much rain for the NI as the previous run
but I guess that will flip flop more yet

[Cyclone Tracy]

Lord Howe Island now gusting to 76 km/h.

Mt Gower now shrouded. Webcam link for those interested as Uesi approaches. https://www.windy.com/-Webcams/Australi ... ,155.792,7

[Awhituobs]

that is one place to visit on my bucket list