NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

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NZstorm
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NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks to be a little bit of thunder potential tomorrow over the upper North Island with those heavy showers. Thunder more possible inland.
I forecast thunder by checking to see if cb tops can get to -30C.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by tornado »

NZstorm wrote: Fri 21/02/2020 08:27 Looks to be a little bit of thunder potential tomorrow over the upper North Island with those heavy showers. Thunder more possible inland.
I forecast thunder by checking to see if cb tops can get to -30C.



yes we could see some thunder around the north island. maybe a rumble or two in auckland but the main risk is inland i agree.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by spwill »

If tomorrows front was coming through 2 or 3 hrs later that would have been more interesting for thunderstorm chances.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Using run 12Z UK, GFS, EC, Access G, Access R, Icon, CMC, ARP and MS published rainfall numbers, my location has a projected average of 11mm for tomorrow. That will change again before tomorrow of course :smile:
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by cbm »

Latest ECMWF is teasing with 22mm for my area now but GFS does not concur.

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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

its like xmas eve here...with rain hopefully when I wake up
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

EU suggests a heavy shower/possible thunderstorm will develop over NW Auckland and drift SE across Auckland early Saturday afternoon. This certainly could happen if we get some warming during the morning.

3hour rainfall total to 2pm Saturday.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by cbm »

Awhituobs wrote:its like xmas eve here...with rain hopefully when I wake up
Yeah, anyone on tanks should have checked thier roof is clean, pipes are all in order and any stale water in the feed has been flushed. You don't want to waste this one. Even in town worth trying to collect from the downpipes for the garden if possible.

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Re: General February Weather

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NZstorm wrote: Fri 21/02/2020 19:24 EU suggests a heavy shower/possible thunderstorm will develop over NW Auckland and drift SE across Auckland early Saturday afternoon. This certainly could happen if we get some warming during the morning.

3hour rainfall total to 2pm Saturday.


i hope that happens. and metservice has moderate risk for much of the upper north island tomorrow which i haven't seen for a while
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NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Thought it might be worthwhile to insert a thread for tomorrow. Mixed messages coming from the models. Many hoping EC has this right, time will tell.

Moisture is currently pluming around the mid levels in the Tasman tonight ahead of the cold front on the water vapour image. EC 00Z showing TT's above 50, K index around 37 tomorrow afternoon over the upper / central NI and BOP, so this could get quite lively if it verifies.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Including MS's latest thunderstorm risk from this evening for PM tomorrow.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by tornado »

we also have moderate risk in the morning. lets just hope for a few rumbles/flashes at least. if none. lets just hope for rain
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by NZstorm »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 21/02/2020 20:31 EC 00Z showing TT's above 50, K index around 37 tomorrow afternoon over the upper / central NI and BOP, so this could get quite lively if it verifies.
Those numbers denote a high risk of thunder. So EU looking very favourable.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Nev »

Mod Note: Thanks for starting this thread CT... _b
Thought it might be a good idea to also include today's relevant comments, etc... :-)
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by cbm »

Darn, latest EC has downgraded my area to 10mm again, Auckland city getting the best fall, happy for them but rain needed here too. Could swing back, going to be a photo finish. What happens tomorrow will decide if this year smashes the all time record for lowest Jan plus Feb rainfall (I hope not, but could happen) or just ends up about equal 2nd with 2013.

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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Chris W »

South Island too, or Canterbury at least.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Awhituobs »

woa, this initial rain band is sooo narrow...but I think I am going to get it ...lol
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Last model run 12Z before it arrives - UK, GFS, EC, Access G, Access R, Icon, CMC, ARP and MS published rainfall numbers, my location has a projected average of 8.5mm. Reality is that it could be 1 to 25mm depending on a downpour. Plenty of radar watching today.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by jamie »

Bugger. No rain for me by the looks. 64 days and 3mm. Coooome onnn!!!!


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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by David »

First tip of the rain gauge in 24 days \:D/
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Awhituobs »

its looking hopefull for me now...yah
(and what we get the Waikato should get some of)
got my first 1mm bagged already
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by NZstorm »

EU and UKmet like North Auckland/Northland/Coromandal for a thundery downpour. But could happen anywhere, the heating is what will trigger a stronger cb.

Its a pitty we don't get high resolution rainfall modelling in NZ like USA has with the HRRR.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by Awhituobs »

what about the front in the tasman ...there is lots of jet stream divergence going on ahead of that
could be more CB lines pop up behind this one as that front and associated troughing and energy approaches
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

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im hoping for a good downpour and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. this looks to be the strongest front we had this year.
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Re: NI - Showers, rain, possible storms 22 Feb

Unread post by tornado »

heres this mornings thunderstorm update.

Valid to: Midnight Saturday 22 Feb 2020

Issued at: 8:29am Saturday 22 Feb 2020

Very moist and unstable air is streaming down over the North Island from the northwest today (Saturday).

An active front is moving onto the North Island this morning, bringing outbreaks of heavy rain and thunderstorms. There is LOW risk of thunderstorms everywhere north of Taihape, with MODERATE risk north of a line from Taranaki to Hawkes Bay, as indicated on the chart.

In the areas covered by MODERATE risk, there is generally a LOW risk of localised downpours, but the risk is seen as MODERATE from eastern Taranaki to Taupo and northwards to the Kaimai Range, where a Severe Thunderstorms Watch is currently in force. Downpours could locally bring rainfall intensities of 25-40mm/hr.

Over the South Island, a cool southerlies change is expected to bring showers, some possibly heavy, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms as this change moves northwards, reaching Cook Strait this evening.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

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