NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Mon 23/03/2020 19:54
Sporadic drops of heavy rain at the moment.
Just heard a distant rumble of thunder way out to the east.
lucky you. i hope for a thunderstorm in auckland tonight.
David wrote: ↑Mon 23/03/2020 20:03
Any of the long-term model watchers seeing any pattern change come April? CT/Tony/someone else? All I'm seeing until at least early April is high after high, getting a bit depressing.
Apart from these initial troughs and fronts that some are getting lucky with today, that high pressure ridge looks ominous as you pointed out. MJO and SAM not really coming to the save the day anytime soon. The Coral sea may see a tropical depression in the first week of April to give some hope for a the mid April deluge.
Locally, I've had 0.6mm so far today. 31.6mm YTD. Hopefully get some more in a few hours.
David wrote: ↑Mon 23/03/2020 20:03
Any of the long-term model watchers seeing any pattern change come April? CT/Tony/someone else? All I'm seeing until at least early April is high after high, getting a bit depressing.
Apart from these initial troughs and fronts that some are getting lucky with today, that high pressure ridge looks ominous as you pointed out. MJO and SAM not really coming to the save the day anytime soon. The Coral sea may see a tropical depression in the first week of April to give some hope for a the mid April deluge.
Locally, I've had 0.6mm so far today. 31.6mm YTD. Hopefully get some more in a few hours.
Maybe one also for the stratosphere thread, but I have been reading that higher ozone levels up there - as we now have - leads to a more negative SAM and wetter weather for NZ, so as the polar vortex fires up perhaps it will be broader in area than it has been in recent years. That’s looking a couple of months away though, probably.
well i heard a brief rumble (that could of been thunder or something else) but no lightning seen. i am fearing we may not get any proper storms this year.
tornado wrote: ↑Mon 23/03/2020 21:43
well i heard a brief rumble (that could of been thunder or something else) but no lightning seen. i am fearing we may not get any proper storms this year.
Best time of year to get thunder in Auckland is May to September. A predicted La Nina could kill it though, hopefully not.
tornado wrote: ↑Mon 23/03/2020 21:43
well i heard a brief rumble (that could of been thunder or something else) but no lightning seen. i am fearing we may not get any proper storms this year.
Best time of year to get thunder in Auckland is May to September. A predicted La Nina could kill it though, hopefully not.
yes i agree. may-september can have the best storms. im still in hope for a storm in the near future but with a long belt of high pressure in the models which is coming in this weekend. i am not even sure yet. but this month has had some resonable rain.
Last edited by tornado on Mon 23/03/2020 22:03, edited 1 time in total.
A couple more claps of thunder out to the NE this evening, but rain turning to snow this evening for a brief period, just before 10pm.
Today's maximum was 19.4C today with partly cloudy skies with light winds but the highlight of the day was the gust-front moving through around 7.10pm with strong southerly winds and a few claps of thunder to the NE this evening.
A few pictures from today.
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we were so lucky here
I was watching that narrow rain band (could even see it so close at night fall) and hoped it would get to us before weakening
with more showers last night we ended up with 48mm here
that will be enough to kick start the pasture growth for farmers in this area
which is some much needed positive news