General March Weather

[harleyb]

Still a long way out and almost certain to change before next week, but it has been a while since I've seen one of these in the model forecasts...

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[Awhituobs]

yes please lol

[Chris W]

GFS has the same idea, EC isn’t interested but worth keeping an eye on as that amount of rain on dry ground would cause some problems. Long way out yet.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

You don't want heavy rain on dry ground. That's disastrous.
"Feast or Famine" rainfall is not very good.
Hope the rainfall is gradual.
Anyway, it was a wet day here with a bit more than "a few spots of rain" that was originally forecasted for here from MS.
Instead of a few spots of rain, we got a total of 6.4mm of light but steady rain here today from late morning,with the heavy drop in between.
Today's maximum was 20.6C when the sun came out, this afternoon but it was mostly a cloudy day, with mid-range and lower cloud.
Hardly any wind, if so, from the NE.

[Orion]

Foggy this morning; 10.5°C.

Have not needed to use the electric fan for several weeks and put it away yesterday.

[treetop]

Wouldnt take those models too seriously this far out. Looking like it will just unravel now North of NZ. Hopefully less heavy rain/wind now but a good drought breaker never the less. More to come upstream 20-22 March is these highs keep their southern track.

[Cyclone Tracy]

For Sunday morning, the UK is projecting a synoptic scale vortex party. Warm core, subtropical hybrid, cold core with interacting jets on the 1 chart.

[David]

Had a look through all the EC ensemble members this morning, encouraging to see so many of the members showing widespread totals >50mm next 10 days.

[harleyb]

Wouldnt take those models too seriously this far out. Looking like it will just unravel now North of NZ. Hopefully less heavy rain/wind now but a good drought breaker never the less. More to come upstream 20-22 March is these highs keep their southern track.

Nah, I wasn't taking it as read of course, but it was nice to see at least a suggestion of something interesting coming up. As you say, the latest run has backed off from that scenario quite a bit. At least we're still looking a good chance of some useful rain where it is needed.

[Chris W]

Certainly model outputs 7-10 days out should be expected to change, however it's worth a certain amount of respect as it may well come off. Hopefully we'll get something more moderate but that also gives us the moisture we need.

[Awhituobs]

woa
check out the BOM/Access model for the next system from the north
(which has been surprisingly accurate at times)

[cbm]

A decent 6mm so far here, had gutters overflowing for a while. It's a good sign that these Southern Ocean fronts are almost reaching Auckland now when they were fizzling out by the King Country during summer.

[jamie]

Yea 5mm so far. Takes me to 20mm for the year now.


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[treetop]

Been watching that one too.Different from the next event as its building further to the north so should be a much larger system by the time it comes our way. Steering winds around the high look very favourable also. May get 5mm tonight WOW !!! .Will be returned to the atmosphere by this time tomorrow no doubt.

[Orion]

Foggy this morning; 10.5°C.

Have not needed to use the electric fan for several weeks and put it away yesterday.

And, naturally, had the fan been available this afternoon I'd have used it

Presently 26.1°C outside, 24.9°C indoors, 58% humidity, sunny, a few clouds + high haze.

[NZstorm]

Some lightning on the tracker currently from a storm over South Otago.

[David]

Just 2mm here today

[Awhituobs]

10mm here...and still drizzling

[jamie]

I’ve done well with 12mm now.


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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Terrible smokey skies over Geraldine at the moment. Worse than the smog that ChCh used to get years ago.
Slight southerly drift over the town.
Can't wait until winter when the pollution readings begin. this would surpass the readings in July for example on a calm, anticyclonic and cold day

[NZstorm]

Looks like an MCS over SE Otago this evening with lots of lightning. Well predicted by the gfs.

Ukmet develops a storm over Christchurch tomorrow morning whereas EU has the activty off Banks Peninsula.

[tornado]

so dark this time. usually the sun is setting. 11 mm here. had a few briefly heavier falls at 4:40pm then constant drizzle from 5pm and its still drizzling. feels cooler too.


looks like more rain. especially this weekend coming up. with that low forming. maybe a thread might be needed?


edit at 9:10 pm still raining here.

[Chris W]

Varying positions and intensities for that subtropical low across the models, which (the low) interacts with a southerly coming up the South Island. Looks wet at least for the eastern North Island, if not the rest of it. Canterbury? Maybe a gentle soaking rain and some high country snow?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Well the smoke has cleared away and it's a fine clear evening.
Fine sunny day with a maximum of 24.8C.
Night much wind, if so, from a South to SE direction.

[Richard]

Haven't seen many moderate risk days over the last 6 months, hopefully something fires up and gives us a good downpour, otherwise looking ahead the drought shows no sign of letting up

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