Tropical Cyclone Gretel - Coral/Tasman Sea

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 95P is now on the American's radar. Most ensembles members across the global models are showing a significant Coral sea tropical cyclone this weekend.

Next cyclone name on the BoM's list is 'Gretel'

[Chris W]

Gretel! I can only presume that Hansel is next and will be just as bad.

GFS is hinting that the ridge will steer Gretel north of us, after this weekend’s subtropical fun and games. I think it’s all to play for as the stratosphere gets going.

[Cyclone Tracy]

UK and Access G producing a significant cat 4 South Pacific cyclonic gyre in less than 6 days. Position is south of New Caledonia heading into the northern Tasman. The models have a ridge further east and a mid latitude trough in the Tasman drawing the beast south east. EC & Icon are also similar synoptic set ups at 144 hours.

[Chris W]

Last I saw GFS and EC both show the ridge steering (to be) Gretel north of us. The BOM has a nasty 956mb low heading straight for Northland.

[Blowy]

Very similar set up as Bola? , will be interesting.

[Awhituobs]

more like Ida?

[TonyT]

With each run, the ECMWF is generating more and more ensemble members with a track into the central Tasman Sea, and a stall

[Awhituobs]

as mentioned in the March thread
the GFS has it onboard to hit the NI now bad
so that is 3 models in general agreement (just differences in timing) at the moment

[TonyT]

as mentioned in the March thread
the GFS has it onboard to hit the NI now bad
so that is 3 models in general agreement (just differences in timing) at the moment

You cant quite draw that conclusion, yet. The majority of the ECMWF members are still running it southeast along the ridge to the north of the North Island. However, an increasing number are bringing into the central Tasman. Only a few are bringing it across the North Island within the next 10 days.

[Awhituobs]

note the word general agreement
ie general idea that something will happen
of course each model is going to flip flop
but the general idea is there at the moment across a number of models which makes you sit up at take notice

[Peter]

... the MetVUW forecast <assume based on the GFS> has come into line with what the BOM Access model has been saying for days - could be an “interesting” Tuesday/Wednesday as this tropical cyclone takes a direct hit here, if this verifies - 966 mb central pressure over the North Island!! ...

EFBD8499-A8D5-4B14-A0B7-680ED89CD582.jpeg

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... probably should have posted in General March Weather, or a separate NZ topic? ...

[TonyT]

note the word general agreement
ie general idea that something will happen
of course each model is going to flip flop
but the general idea is there at the moment across a number of models which makes you sit up at take notice

Apologies, I thought you were referring to where the ex-cyclone would end up. Agree that there is very little doubt that its likely to develop and move roughly in this direction. Interesting to look at the MJO, the ECMWF is projecting a swing through phases 1, 2, and into 3, none of which are cyclone friendly phases for this part of the world. Must be some internal conflicts in the model trying to reconcile that, which will in turn increase the chance of a "flop flop" outcome from run to run.

[Awhituobs]

you can see it starting to take "shape" now just off far north queensland
there is also a deep layer northerly steering flow over Fiji currently
which is what is going to help push it into the north tasman

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hot tower now appearing off the Far North Queensland coast. Cloud tops near -90c as the low level circulation centre is now on the coast crawling south east.

[Awhituobs]

will get more pop corn at supermarket today
(and panadol and vitamin c and toilet rolls lol)

[Chris W]

Beginning to look more likely that Northland will get a strong overcorrection in its year-to-date rainfall total, and potentially some very strong wind gusts. Hoping it deviates enough to take the sting away but deliver enough water.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The BoM giving their latest 2 cents worth via an extended projection track map.

[David]

GFS taking it north of NZ now with little impacts here.

[Awhituobs]

nothing is set in concrete yet

[tornado]

the models is gonna flip flop a bit. I still have hope that cyclone will hit us. nothing is locked in yet. models will keep changing a bit.

[Awhituobs]

yup, its just a wait and see game at this stage

[Awhituobs]

seems like the window of opportunity is closing
unless it can get a hurry on (in forming and moving)

[Awhituobs]

I like the look of the jet stream starting to dive more south east of Brisbane now
also the low on the jet stream that was at one stage predicted to form to our north is now forming to our east (which the models changed to predicting)

[Awhituobs]

BOM/UKMet model has it getting close enough to bring a little bit of rain and wind ....

[Cyclone Tracy]

Deeper convection and outflow looking stronger now, pressure at the nearest BoM obs now at 997 hPa with centre around 990 hPa. Starting to look more like a cyclone this morning.