NZ Weather Forum

As much as we are all thinking about how we get through lockdown in April, the weather will continue its journey past the equinox and through autumn.

It seems we will start off with dry weather as high pressure dominates, but GFS and ECMWF modelling together with the BOM Access indicates potentially colder weather in the second week as a vortex lobe moves over NZ. A tropical disturbance may eventuate a few days earlier near Vanuatu. However that is further out, and with reduced data input into the models due to the cessation of flights forecasting may become more difficult.

models are showing a tasmin front and a tropical cyclone joining up for next week. hmm.

In the 2013 drought, the rains returned here 15 April. Hopeful we won't be waiting longer than that this time either.

David wrote: ↑Tue 31/03/2020 15:00 In the 2013 drought, the rains returned here 15 April. Hopeful we won't be waiting longer than that this time either.

Metservice monthly outlook pretty consistent with modelling from GFS and EC, warm this weekend then colder after that:
https://www.metservice.com/rural#monthly-outlook

I looked at the CPC SAM charts, most favour slightly negative at least going into next month but I wouldn't be surprised to see them go further into the negative.

M/S not expecting la nina I see

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Tue 31/03/2020 17:34 M/S not expecting la nina I see

They're not looking out their window...

It might be just weak la nina...not enough to be official...I.e over the threshold

TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 31/03/2020 17:59

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Tue 31/03/2020 17:34 M/S not expecting la nina I see

They're not looking out their window...

Possibly they are looking at that cooler area closer to us, as churned up by recent southwesterlies.

BOM saying neutral but also that autumn forecasts are less accurate as is known. They go for a relatively neutral SAM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Foggy in some places in Wellington this morning

Looking like strong equinox westerly conditions from later next week. Love the current weather pattern [only 3 months late] Make the most of it now , damm forgot the lockdown !

Misty/foggy here this morning, 11.0°

Patchy fog in places heading into CHCH but lifted to low cloud the closer we get

Total storage in Auckland's dams was down to 54% as of 3 days ago, which is 24% lower than normal at this time of year. A lot of rain will be required over winter to make that up! Not a lot showing up in the first half of this month it seems.

25.5 here today is actually a new April record for my station, beating the previous 25.4 on 10 Apr 2015

David wrote:25.5 here today is actually a new April record for my station, beating the previous 25.4 on 10 Apr 2015

Crikey I got 26.6 today. It sure did feel warm. I think that would be a record for me. I’ll need to go check.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

After the clearance of overnight low cloud and mist this morning, it was a nice sunny day, at last, with a light SE.
Some weak Cu along the foothills.
Today's maximum was 17.3C. Good day for mushroom growing, getting the autumn leaves established, eradicating coronavirus, etc., etc.
Low cloud returning this evening.

24.6 max here was a record for 1st april (no fool)

jamie wrote:

David wrote:25.5 here today is actually a new April record for my station, beating the previous 25.4 on 10 Apr 2015

Crikey I got 26.6 today. It sure did feel warm. I think that would be a record for me. I’ll need to go check.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Did have an usually warm day 27.6, something close to 28 in the first day or two of April a few years ago, maybe 2016. Ruakura did record 29.7 way back in April 1921, not sure what unusual conditions caused that. Clifo has changed its output to a single column format, means if a Linux nerd can now find things by grepping, which is handy.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

cbm wrote:

jamie wrote: Crikey I got 26.6 today. It sure did feel warm. I think that would be a record for me. I’ll need to go check.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Did have an usually warm day 27.6, something close to 28 in the first day or two of April a few years ago, maybe 2016. Ruakura did record 29.7 way back in April 1921, not sure what unusual conditions caused that. Clifo has changed its output to a single column format, means if a Linux nerd can now find things by grepping, which is handy.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

It was 2014, 27.9 on April 7th at the airport. Time goes too fast.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

10.7°C here at the moment; fine drizzle or falling fog; feels quite humid at 87%.
No wind to speak of.

Yes that 26.6 was a record for me for April. Previous record from what I can see was 26.0 in 2014.

Brian how do you see back more than 10 years on the average/extremes/report page on the av/max/min temp table/graphs tab. Mines only going back to 2010.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think I set it for last 10 years max
but I will check

After the clearance of overnight low cloud this morning, it was a nice sunny day, at last, with a light NE or calm.
Some weak Cu along the foothills.
Today's maximum was 16.9C. Good day for mushroom growing, getting the autumn leaves established, eradicating coronavirus, etc., etc.
Low cloud returning later this evening.

Was a lovely day here yesterday too John, maxed out at 20.6deg. This morning the fog is back, once this clears it should be slightly warmer again than yesterday