NZ Weather Forum

Yeah, it's basically like going back about 10 years in forecasting methods. I don't think it's disingenuous to say that. Also, where do you launch the balloon to get a reading for a system that formed so far from the shore? Unless they ask shipping/fishing vessels to do it.

Harold well truly recovering from this morning's land friction, the inner eyewall again exploding with lightning as the eye is now over 29c sea water at 4.30pm NZT.

He has dropped 17 hPa in the last 2 hours over water. Advanced Dvorak estimating 137 knots and 922 hPa at 7.10pm NZT. Harold has now moved into the U.S cat 5 / western Pacific Super Typhoon level.

wow, yeah, looks incredible now on sat images

Goodness me...… 917 hPa, 143 knots. dropped 22 hPa in 180 minutes. KABOOM! and inner eyewall lightning has commenced again as he demolishes the Pentecost Island.

that is going to be catastrophic for the next island its about to hit in island chain of Vanuatu

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/h ... p?area=nzl

select pacific islands #5

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 06/04/2020 20:18 Goodness me...… 917 hPa, 143 knots. dropped 22 hPa in 180 minutes. KABOOM! and inner eyewall lightning has commenced again as he demolishes the Pentecost Island.

Has dropped even further, 908hPa, and now 149 knots. That's some serious intensification.

905.4 and 152 now http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/25P-list.txt

JTWC has top gusts around 165 Knots so 305kmh! https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh2520web.txt

Harold has crossed Vanuatu. Pressure bottomed out for now at 905.4mb and has risen a little to 917mb (Dvorak), but winds according to JTWC are 140kts gusting 170kts - set to be maintained for at least the next 12 hours.

Looking again it seems to have contracted a little but may be undergoing eyewall replacement. Now tracking towards Suva.

Also reports of heavy damage in Luganvillle
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ts-vanuatu

Microwave imagery confirms another eyewall replacement cycle is complete. A dry air intrusion has also weakened the beast to a cat 4 this morning. Another round of inner eyewall lightning has recommenced in the last hour as the core consolidates again. Current position of Harold's centre is around 50 to 70km further North than most models had projected. Fiji needs to watch him very closely in the next 12 to 24 hours.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Tonga too, track looks to go through both Suva and Nuku'alofa as a 90-110kt system though maybe still a little to the south:
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh2520.gif

Pressure up to 938.2mb, speed 117.4kts going by http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt25P.html, gusting 140kts going by JTWC.

Harold now approaching on Fijian radar at 7.50am NZT. 100+ knot, 948 hPa cat 4.

Woa.thats close than the models predicted...the models are really missing data

Only had 2 frames on the webcam on Plantation Island (Mamanuka islands near Nadi, Fiji) this morning - looking pretty wild!

The eye is clearing a little more on the approach. Suva may experience the northern side of the eyewall this afternoon which will most likely have destructive mesovortices. Kadavu Island looks to get the eye and a very nasty backhander.

Harold is strengthening again..... lightning is recommencing within the eyewall, pressure has now dropped 14 hPa in the last 3 hours. 937 hPa, 117 knots (ADT) which is a high end cat 4.

He has S wobbled south east, eye about to move over Kadavu Island. The wobble will spare Suva from the worst of the eyewall.

From iCyclone:
8 pm Wednesday (Tonga): Cyclone HAROLD is clearing Fiji (pink) after a devastating, direct hit on Kadavu Island (highlighted). Now it's racing ESE at a brisk 40 km/h (20 knots/25 mph).

Next stop: Tonga (yellow).

Most computer models bring the cyclone's center just S of the Kingdom's main island, Tongatapu (pop ~75K), and nearby 'Eua (pop ~5K) (highlighted) by early tomorrow morning. That's close enough to bring destructive hurricane-force winds there. All islands in the Tongatapu and Ha'apai groups are under a Cyclone WARNING. (It looks like the Vava'u group is just outside the WARNING area.) The good news: the cyclone should slowly weaken on its way there.

If you live on Tongatapu or 'Eua Island, COMPLETE CYCLONE PREPARATIONS NOW. By dawn, it will be too late.

HAROLD's trek across the S Pacific is remarkable—the way it's inflicting big impacts on so many different locations so far apart. It reminds me of the great Hurricane DONNA in the N Atlantic. DONNA raced up the East Coast of the USA in September 1960, bringing hurricane winds to Florida, the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic, *and* New England before unraveling over Canada!

7.40pm IR sat pic with the last 7 hours track I've plotted. Currently the eye is wide open and again further north than the global models have projected on the latest 00Z runs. Pressure is dropping again and back to 940 hPa, 112 knots. On the current track, it looks like a direct hit for Tongatapu but models suggest the ridge will steer it just south in the next 8 hours. Time will tell if they are right. Long night ahead for the Tongan people.

Edit now 938 hPa - 115 knots (7.40pm NZT)

931 hPa and falling, 122 knots (ADT method ). On the edge of regaining cat 5 status.

Some horrendous damage reports emerging from Vanuatu. My heat sank reading this article
https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacif ... in-vanuatu

https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Tornad ... ed-4rxf85/



wow.

I've been worried for Vanuatu, but Fiji also took a big hit and I'd say Tonga does look to be in the firing line as well. I wonder when the last cyclone was that would have hit three Pacific island nationsb so directly in a row?