Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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snowchaser01
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Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Not that it matters, because we should all be inside, but interesting to follow nonetheless.

Alright start to the weekend, but heavy West Coast rain on Sunday, followed by cold and wintry for the South Island and lower North on Monday. Looks like it is going to be very very windy for some places too.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Chris W »

UKMO and ECMWF lining up more on the surface low crossing the South Island further south than GFS. Either way looks like decent rain for many parts save for those that really need it - Northland and North Canterbury. A chilly sting in the tail for the eastern South Island.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Latest EC run has a distinct possibility of advection over and around the Canterbury area on Monday morning....
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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Looks like a few squally thunderstorms will be on the fast moving front approaching the North Island later Sunday. Rainfall for Auckland could be in the 10-20mm range which would be great.

EU 1 hour rainfall totals for the country in the hour to 11pm Sunday. This chart captures the flavour of the front with convective style precip.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Razor »

Chris W wrote: Thu 09/04/2020 11:10 UKMO and ECMWF lining up more on the surface low crossing the South Island further south than GFS. Either way looks like decent rain for many parts save for those that really need it - Northland and North Canterbury. A chilly sting in the tail for the eastern South Island.
GFS now sending most of the action out to sea for us in Canterbury. Very little moisture on this morning's run on land for the eastern SI seaboard
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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Razor wrote: Fri 10/04/2020 09:37
GFS now sending most of the action out to sea for us in Canterbury. Very little moisture on this morning's run on land for the eastern SI seaboard
Canterbury could come good for convection though Monday pm.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Chris W »

NZstorm wrote: Fri 10/04/2020 13:23
Razor wrote: Fri 10/04/2020 09:37
GFS now sending most of the action out to sea for us in Canterbury. Very little moisture on this morning's run on land for the eastern SI seaboard
Canterbury could come good for convection though Monday pm.
Strong NW but possibly very cold upper air. Maybe a really good gust front and heavy showers?
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Ash »

Geez. That's a deep low forecast to be sitting off the SI East Coast on Monday. Its gonna get windy!
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by NZstorm »

I am not expecting much precip in Grey Lyyn, the heavier falls with that front will be hit and miss and more likely in the west. Maybe 5mm here.

Thunder/hail looking on the cards for mid Canterbury Monday afternoon.

Snow to 300m inland Southland/Otago Late Monday/early Tuesday. Probably not much snow but looks to be some wintry precip anyway for the higher hills.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Awhituobs »

this next weather system looks great on the sat images
I think the models have underestimated it...the models have like gone backwards 10 years with less data?
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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Awhituobs wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 06:39 this next weather system looks great on the sat images
I think the models have underestimated it...the models have like gone backwards 10 years with less data?
highly likely
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Got bike tyres pumped for a possible chase on monday!
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Tomorrow is looking really good now for thunderstorms in Canterbury/ Christchurch. Looks like even a light NE might even get going on the coast in afternoon. So that might be very interesting.
Looks good! Metservice will probably put moderate risk out later in the day for tomorrow \:D/
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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mikestormchaser wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 09:55 Tomorrow is looking really good now for thunderstorms in Canterbury/ Christchurch. Looks like even a light NE might even get going on the coast in afternoon. So that might be very interesting.
Looks good! Metservice will probably put moderate risk out later in the day for tomorrow \:D/
Agreed. Proving very hard to pinpoint tomorrow....
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Chris W »

MS have been mentioning possible storms for Chch in the forecast text. I've been watching the past few days and yesterday I was thinking the surface temperatures may be a bit cool and also not sure how much the NE might get going, but the cold air over the top and shear are good. Here's hoping!

Edit - MS risk is low in the morning and afternoon for mid-Canterbury, moderate clipping the peninsula.
Last edited by Chris W on Sun 12/04/2020 11:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Chris W »

Awhituobs wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 06:39 this next weather system looks great on the sat images
I think the models have underestimated it...the models have like gone backwards 10 years with less data?
Similarly for TC Harold, they are struggling mightily.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Pretty gnarly looking rain band on the west coast currently
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Personally I would be going with a moderate risk over Canterbury tomorrow, even in the morning.
What I like about tomorrow is the variancy between the strong 500mb and 10m surface winds, along with good convection should allow decent convergence and forcing.
10-20mm hail given abruptness in cold upper air and strong upper level winds.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Storm Struck wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 13:03 Personally I would be going with a moderate risk over Canterbury tomorrow, even in the morning.
What I like about tomorrow is the variancy between the strong 500mb and 10m surface winds, along with good convection should allow decent convergence and forcing.
10-20mm hail given abruptness in cold upper air and strong upper level winds.
I agree, RE severe hail. Also agree moderate risk.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Dean. »

I'm suprised there is no wind watch out for this area...gusty northwest now
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Chris W »

The NE is really picking up this afternoon around here, some hefty gusts in the past half hour.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Dean. »

65 k gusts 24 degrees balmy
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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Dean. wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 14:36 65 k gusts 24 degrees balmy
And the MS forecast for your area mentions a strengthening NE wind... something tells me models are struggling
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

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mikestormchaser wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 14:00
Storm Struck wrote: Sun 12/04/2020 13:03 Personally I would be going with a moderate risk over Canterbury tomorrow, even in the morning.
What I like about tomorrow is the variancy between the strong 500mb and 10m surface winds, along with good convection should allow decent convergence and forcing.
10-20mm hail given abruptness in cold upper air and strong upper level winds.
I agree, RE severe hail. Also agree moderate risk.
I think its very much a case of seeing how the onshore flow/moisture play out tomorrow. The EU model in the lastest two runs has kept the moisture to the coastline where as other models have taken it inland a bit. I agree there is a risk through to SH1 atleast.
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Re: Easter Weekend Weather 2020

Unread post by Chris W »

NE Gusts picking up strongly again tonight.

MetService have moved the moderate risk for Canterbury inland. Dew point is 10C in the morning going from the GFS so I wouldn’t rule out a morning rumble, afternoon through night the uppers go from -31C to -34C. Here’s the nationwide picture:
1BADCCB9-4F7D-4ED2-8351-482C3BC585F9.jpeg
D974CE43-163A-402E-854A-699377EB99CC.jpeg
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