spwill wrote: ↑Thu 21/05/2020 09:07
The general longer range pattern ahead looks ecouraging for rain with more Tasman lows hopefully, I see the SAM has tended positive which supports that general outlook.
Hmm… shouldn't that be the other way around, i.e. a positive SAM (aka AAO) is usually associated with more high air pressures around NZ and more settled weather, whereas a negative SAM usually results in more low air pressures, increased westerlies and more unsettled weather?
spwill wrote: ↑Thu 21/05/2020 09:07
The general longer range pattern ahead looks ecouraging for rain with more Tasman lows hopefully, I see the SAM has tended positive which supports that general outlook.
Hmm… shouldn't that be the other way around, i.e. a positive SAM (aka AAO) is usually associated with more high air pressures around NZ and more settled weather, whereas a negative SAM usually results in more low air pressures, increased westerlies and more unsettled weather?
NIWA postive & negative SAM.png
(source)
NOAA daily AAO index to May 21.gif
(source)
Yes, postive Sam can be more highs but there can also be lows. From my observation the lazy Tasman low with a subtropical moisture feed is more likely under a positive Sam. Negative Sam tends to favour a more progessive westerly type pattern with troughs and fronts on the move.
RODALCO wrote: ↑Wed 13/05/2020 12:25
2020-05-12_13-44-05.jpgWater level at the Parau dam is below 43 on the old mesuremet. It is normally about 7 meters higher.
Lower Nihotupu dam I'm guessing? At 33% capacity according to Watercare. All 5 of the Waitakere dams are at 27-36%.
Yes it was the Lower Nihotupu dam in Parau, will have another look there over the weekend before the rain starts next week.
Some horrific aerial photos of hawks bay and hauraki plains are circulating on faccbook. Absolute disaster in both those areas. As brown as brown gets and it’s nearly june for f. Sake.
Not as low as the Waitakere dams, but this was Cossey's Dam in the Hunua Ranges this morning at 47% capacity. Looking ahead, GFS has around around 90mm for us in the next 10 days. EC more conservative.
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Might get 15 to 20mm here in mid Canterbury. Will be welcone by farmers, esp north Canterbury set to get more.
MS seem to model the moisture coming in this evening where as BSCH has it coming in early hours of Monday.
Yes, mainly light rain for Auckland. Current temperature is 17C and that will be our overnight low and high tomorrow and Tuesday 20C, so milder weather is back!.
Just had a quick glance of UKmet and Saturday could be an interesting day.
A fine day initially with some high cloud but high cloud gradually thickening from the north during the afternoon with it becoming rather dull and overcast for the rest of the day. Not much wind. Today's maximum was 13C.
