Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 25/05/2020 14:36
NASA's 12Z run is coupling the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortex's this weekend. This is a significant cold snap signal for NZ moving into the first week of June as robust long wave trough moves towards the region. Low snow and coldies could be in order.
Yes as mentioned by others too the models are winding up for one heck of a ride next week. We shall watch with interest its a wee way out and as we know the models aren't nearly as robust as pre COVID
Certainly something to watch that's for sure. My pick at this very early stage (as you say Razor) is around about the 6th of June for something nasty.
The trend the last few weeks post COVID is that they tend to push out a few days before holding true (if they do).
GFS keeps the moist air hanging around into next week, see how much rain we can get over the next week, 26mm at Auckland Airport so far this week so a good start.
Current weather here is cloud and sunny spells, 17C, dp is around 15C.
spwill wrote: ↑Tue 26/05/2020 10:44
26mm at Auckland Airport so far this week
That 26mm includes Sunday and is also the same total so far as Whenuapai and Ricky's at Grey Lynn, compared to just 16mm at Whangaparaoa and 15mm here.
I see someone from Rakino Island Nursery posted on MS-facebook on Sunday morning that they'd 'had 30mm overnight' that night (just 0.5mm of drizzle here). Must have been quite an intense little rogue cell?
The EC 18Z run is picking up a decent convergence over the upper NI in the next 24 hours with near 100mm north of Auckland. Other 18Z models less keen but the radar is starting to warm up west of Northland and the mid levels are moisture rich.
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The potential cold outbreak is shaping more to be into next week than the weekend, but it is being consistently modelled and does seem consistent with the stratosphere directing the polar vortex to contain cold air over Antarctica west of us and potentially release it in our direction. An ongoing result of last year’s SSW.
Shower lines developing around Auckland now and upper level warm frontal/ convergence type rain developing across northland now and drifting south...so Euro model cyclone tracy posted about looking good.
update:wow you can see it all developing nicely on the rain radar
I would say 25mm on the cards
Chris W wrote: ↑Tue 26/05/2020 18:22
The potential cold outbreak is shaping more to be into next week than the weekend, but it is being consistently modelled and does seem consistent with the stratosphere directing the polar vortex to contain cold air over Antarctica west of us and potentially release it in our direction. An ongoing result of last year’s SSW.
MJO skipped across phase 6 yesterday, across 7 today and tomorrow. and into 8 until the end of the month. Phase 8 is the most low pressure dominated phase. See how the MJO slows down and takes about 8 days to traverse phase 1 - thats the coldest phase which favours higher pressures west of NZ and south to southwest airflow over the country. There is probably a tie up between these MJO phases and the shape of the polar vortex in our part of the world.
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yup wow, Ricky sure got a lot of rain over night, which would have also hit the Hunua dams too maybe going by the 24 hour rain animation
We missed most of that though
but there is more coming in today
Just 27mm needed here to make it the first month to reach average rainfall in the last 7 months... looks like a reasonable chance we'll get that in the current modelling
