Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-8th

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tornado
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tornado »

yes strong wind orange warning in force for auckland now.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Relaxing a little. Rainfall rates aren't being reported (by PWS on East Coast North of Auckland) as high as I feared & it's looking more N or NNW when it gets here when it's NNE to NE that seems to get us.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Cantab03 wrote: Sun 05/07/2020 12:16 Models have defintely pulled back the idea of sea level snow in the last 3 or so runs, both GFS and EU. Moisture also pulled back, looking very SW. Thinking snow flurries to 300m at this stage, possibly 200m in the heavier showers.
Agreed.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by spwill »

Active part of the front crossing here now with very heavy rain at times.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by David »

Heavy rain here now pounding the windows
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by ScottyD »

David wrote: Sun 05/07/2020 21:38 Heavy rain here now pounding the windows
Not that i'm stalking you, but just checked out your rain rate, and it was at 114mm/hr not long ago
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by NZstorm »

Good upper level energy with tonights system and plenty more of it coming across in the next 3 days! Auckland is going to score a storm out of it at some stage.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by David »

ScottyD wrote: Sun 05/07/2020 21:41
David wrote: Sun 05/07/2020 21:38 Heavy rain here now pounding the windows
Not that i'm stalking you, but just checked out your rain rate, and it was at 114mm/hr not long ago
You must have caught it right at its most intense ;-)
Has eased a bit now. 14mm in the last hour.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Peak rainfall rate wasn't high and only 6mm overnight. Stayed pretty much true North when raining.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by Awhituobs »

was torrential here at one point
7mm in 12 minutes at one point
peak instantenours rain rate at the time was 13mm/min!
(i.e that is based on seconds between tips)

24mm in total here (in 2 bursts, 18 then 6)
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by ricky »

Was torrential here in Grey Lynn for a couple of minutes as well, peak rainfall rate hit 9mm/min, 540mm/hr!
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by Awhituobs »

kewl!. I think I hit 700mm/hr instantenous ...so not too far away in ball park terms
it was amazing to hear it on the roof, you could hear the sheets of heavy rain actually moving along the roof!
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tornado »

torritial rain last night 19mm from it. drought is over. i reakon auckland might score at least one thunder day.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tornado »

nothing much so far. la Nina is stopping our thunderstorms. i just hope we get one before the next anticyclone rolls in.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

As cantab mentioned last night. And i agree models have once again backed off.
Looks like wintry showers both Wednesday morning more SSW flow then again Thursday morning but much more WSW so more showers out towards BP
Snow to 400m again at this stage.
Still could change , hopefully my post has the reverse psychology to which it changes back to that snow to sea level chance we saw last week!
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by Chris W »

Snow is always a down to 24-48 hours thing to nail down, so let's see what changes. Agreed however the trend this week is for the snow level to be higher than what was modelled before the weekend. Will be cold though.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

15mm so far locally. Missed the heaviest part of a solid downpour to my east last night but the gauge is slowly ticking along today. Certainly an active few days ahead.

The 2nd upper trough in the sequence is starting to make it's move off the Antarctic shelf this afternoon. It will be interesting to see the Southern ocean sea level observations in about 24 hours from now.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tornado »

still waiting for a thunderstorm. wednesday a setup as well. not a good season for thunderstorms this year. only had 3 storms so far.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by Chris W »

Interesting that GFS is modelling sea-level snow for North Canterbury at lunchtime on Wednesday, but rain for mid-Canterbury. Editing to correct, those grid squares are fairly broad so I guess it isn't really sea-level, but it looks low.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

For those of you who like observing, Macquire Island, 1000 km south west of Steward Island will start to experience how strong this polar low sling shot is going to be in the next 12 hours. Models are currently projecting the surface temp to drop between 2 to 2.5c with some precip, thickness around 520 early tomorrow morning.

https://www.antarctica.gov.au/living-an ... ie-island/

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801 ... 4998.shtml
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-7th

Unread post by tornado »

decent downpour now. watching the CB on radar. may not be thunder. but still nice rain.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-8th

Unread post by NZstorm »

A colder southerly moving north tomorrow with light snow accumulations to atleast 300m in Dunedin and 300m Banks Peninsula later in the day.
Wintry precip in both Dunedin and then Christchurch late in the day.

Should get a bit of hail in Auckland tomorrow and maybe an isolated thunder boom.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-8th

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The cold air mass coming up from the Southern ocean was about 1 to 2c degrees colder than models had predicted on the surface of Macquire Island overnight.
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-8th

Unread post by Awhituobs »

strong westerly wind here (gusts to 48 kts)
bit of a shock as has been ages since we had a westerly gale
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Re: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-8th

Unread post by spwill »

Certainly looks wintry in the south tomorrow.

Cold upper temperatures here tomorrow for a thunder chance, more likely in the morning hours.
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