Heavy Rain, Strong Wind and Cold Outbreak July 5th-8th

[Chris W]

Front moving up now, not the only thing to crash through Chch this morning - noisy quake almost under my house!

Not so sure I see GFS modelling SW, at least initially it looks more of SSW that probably sets up convergence with winds coming around the South Island and parallel to the coast. Looks like 2-3 days of vigorous chain showers, in fact GFS back down to about sea-level Thursday morning as it drops the 850s by a degree, consistent with CT citing the Macquarrie observations.

[tornado]

some unstable skies around auckland today. should clear this afteroon. thunder chance tommorow. perhaps a tornado chance to. metservice already has tomorrows outlooks out. looks intresting.

[mikestormchaser]

Front moving up now, not the only thing to crash through Chch this morning - noisy quake almost under my house!

Not so sure I see GFS modelling SW, at least initially it looks more of SSW that probably sets up convergence with winds coming around the South Island and parallel to the coast. Looks like 2-3 days of vigorous chain showers, in fact GFS back down to about sea-level Thursday morning as it drops the 850s by a degree, consistent with CT citing the Macquarrie observations.

Snow level looks to be about 400m possibly 300m at best, more towards the BP area, esp thursday morning as it looks to swing much more WSW. Definitely wintry precip tonight and tomorrow morning for the city though!

[Richard]

There will only be the cold wind for here over the next day or so, never did look like it was going to produce anything over the last day or two.

[Awhituobs]

very heavy prolonged shower through here just now with a swing to more WSW wind
heading towars south auckland that shower
11mm for the day now

[NZstorm]

thunder chance tommorow. perhaps a tornado chance to. metservice already has tomorrows outlooks out. looks intresting.

No tornadoes tomorrow, the air won't be moist enough. But there is a risk of severe squalls 60knots.

[Chris W]

Front moving up now, not the only thing to crash through Chch this morning - noisy quake almost under my house!

Not so sure I see GFS modelling SW, at least initially it looks more of SSW that probably sets up convergence with winds coming around the South Island and parallel to the coast. Looks like 2-3 days of vigorous chain showers, in fact GFS back down to about sea-level Thursday morning as it drops the 850s by a degree, consistent with CT citing the Macquarrie observations.

Snow level looks to be about 400m possibly 300m at best, more towards the BP area, esp thursday morning as it looks to swing much more WSW. Definitely wintry precip tonight and tomorrow morning for the city though!

I'd have a look at this morning's run Mike. Agreed your numbers are pretty typical for what we usually end up getting, but the change today is that little bit colder. Could revert later on.

[tornado]

thunder chance tommorow. perhaps a tornado chance to. metservice already has tomorrows outlooks out. looks intresting.

No tornadoes tomorrow, the air won't be moist enough. But there is a risk of severe squalls 60knots.

tomorow will be intresting. anyways. see what happens tommorow. im hoping for a thunderstorm cause the next week lokks very stable. a big blocking high. still a bit unstable at the moment.

[mattyj46]

From Niwa

[Cyclone Tracy]

West of Auckland will have a 16 to 17c temperature gradient from the Tasman to 850 hPa tomorrow morning. These coldies will have a decent punch to them.

Latest EC 18Z projection upgrading to snow flurries around Christchurch early Thursday morning.

[Chris W]

West of Auckland will have a 16 to 17c temperature gradient from the Tasman to 850 hPa tomorrow morning. These coldies will have a decent punch to them.

Latest EC 18Z projection upgrading to snow flurries around Christchurch early Thursday morning.

Sure will https://www.metservice.com/warnings/thu ... rm-outlook

Even managing to squeak out a low risk around BP tomorrow night.

[tornado]

im a little bit worried for tommorows possible wind storm. while it is exciting weather. i have to train to places tommorow.

i will be fine i think. i shouldn't feel to worried. but it may be a rocky ride lol. hoping for some thunder too. i dot think tornadoes are likly tommorow. if there are reports of damage they may report it as one. but it will be cause of the wind. similar set up to 10 april 2018?

[hozza95]

I see Metservice have now updated their forecast for gore township for tomorrow to “showers, sleet or snow possible in the early morning”. Covering all bases it seems. We should see some snow up here overnight.

[Storm Struck]

If we are to go by recent models, which have changed to show some chilly numbers.
Then we could be looking at snow to 200-300m in the morning tomorrow with the first phase, rain maybe some sleet lower down.
The second lot which is your typical coastal fringer, comes through from 6pm bringing chain showers and snow to 200m initially especially on the port hills and banks pennsinsula.
Then down to around 100m by 3am, Sleety falls and hail lower down maybe the odd flake or two if you count them hitting your coffee at that insane hour .
The only issue we have and always do in this flow is how coastal it will hug, windflow is WSW just west of Christchurch but SW over the city north.
At the end of day weather will be the winner snow anticipation yeah sure but I'm not counting my toes.
I did that in lock down .

[Awhituobs]

59 knots squall just through here (109kmh)
(same speed as the Manukau heads now casting...(note they are stronger there in a more NW angled wind than I am but similar in a more WSW to W wind)

[Cyclone Tracy]

Polar injected upper trough.

[tornado]

not sure if we going to get thunder today sadly. our storm season is basicly a bust. although alot of unstable looking clouds around.
but looking to see if we do get the gales today.

i See ww tweeted this is similar to 10 april 2018. but they say there are risk that could reduce it.

[Chris W]

Heavy snow watch issued for Banks Peninsula tonight above 400m, also for Taihape. Plenty of wind watches in force of course for the Auckland/Northland/Waikato area as well: https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home

[Chris W]

Polar injected upper trough.

That's a beauty.

[tornado]

looking on the 120km radar. these CBs have some localise heavy falls. maybe hail. perhaps thunder today. the wind is not here yet.

[Awhituobs]

IMG_20200708_085557_443.jpg

Coldies

[NZstorm]

Some hail mixed in with the rain here. Temperature 8C.

[tich]

Quite heavy rain for a time early this morning in Akaroa, then breaking to a few shower. Dusting of snow on some higher hills (600-700m+), but much more expected this evening with MetService snow watch. Dry in Chch now

[tornado]

sunny at otuhuhu at the moment. unstable skies with lots of CBs about. maybe a isolated thunderstorm? wind picking up a little

[Cyclone Tracy]

Mid level moisture being picked up on the 12pm water vapour image within the 524 thickness bubble heading NNE towards the Banks peninsular. This cold pool will be energised by 10 to 11c sea surface temperatures this evening producing cold convection and super cooling in that region.