Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 14/07/2020 11:05

I think this might be worth a separate thread. A large extra-tropical cyclone now deepening in the central Tasman. Multiple fronts and troughs will move across several areas of the NI from Wednesday into the weekend. Plenty of active weather ahead.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Tue 14/07/2020 11:25

yes but it is forecast to weaken as it does so. still some interesting weather coming for us north island. south island... high pressure

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 14/07/2020 12:14

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 14/07/2020 11:05 Plenty of active weather ahead.

Not down here, sadly

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 14/07/2020 12:59

May get a tornado report from Northland/north Auckland with this system given the moist subtropical air that is modelled for the region.
Dp's 14-15C Friday/Saturday.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 14/07/2020 18:28

The mid latitude cyclone is still deepening on sunset and starting to get that cinnamon scroll look about it. The wind field is rapidly expanding with it's reach going to be the entire width of the Tasman by the morning.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 14/07/2020 20:37

Yes. Looks like a lot of that cloud will move onto the eastern SI bringing lots of dull days "Clagg" until early next week.
Might have to go back over to the West Coast for another hoilday.

Maybe MS should have a "Clagg" warning in their severe weather forecasts as dull overcast days in a row can cause depression in some people.?

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Tue 14/07/2020 20:49

It does have a nice structure on the maps. Seems to be stuck in place, but looks threatening.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 15/07/2020 07:10

EU 24 hour rainfall totals for Auckland region to midday Thursday. This period captures most of the precip from the warm front. Should be some useful rainfall for the dams, fingers crossed.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 15/07/2020 07:30

Hunua dams need a lot more than 40mm. Hoping we get more than modelled

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 15/07/2020 07:31

For here locally, the average from 9 global and regional models on the 12z run is projecting a rainfall range of 48 to 58mm over the 4 days. Models significantly underestimated the last event on 25 to 27 June that was a similar synoptic set up .

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Wed 15/07/2020 08:46

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 15/07/2020 07:31 For here locally, the average from 9 global and regional models on the 12z run is projecting a rainfall range of 48 to 58mm over the 4 days. Models significantly underestimated the last event on 25 to 27 June that was a similar synoptic set up .

i agree that event was a little similar. close radar watching and media watching for reports of tornadoes.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Wed 15/07/2020 10:54

moderate rain. is starting to develope in auckland. see what happens. metservice got low risk of thunder with a low risk of downpours for us tommorow afternoon. maybe a rumble. im expecting a twister report too.

rain moved south. im worried we may not get anything at all

i might declare a thunder drought soon.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 15/07/2020 11:49

The am hours tomorrow is when most of the rain will come through (GFS)

Happy Feet · Unread post by **Happy Feet** » Wed 15/07/2020 12:12

It's just starting to rain hard here near Kaikohe. I did my feeding out early to miss the heavy downfalls.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 15/07/2020 15:09

Just 1mm so far unfortunately.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 15/07/2020 16:59

Warm front now inching down around Whangarei with dew points 13c to 15c across most of Northland. A PWS on the east side of Whangarei now on 35mm , Whangaroa 70mm, Kerikeri 62mm.

Light rain and light easterly here to start things off.

Happy Feet · Unread post by **Happy Feet** » Wed 15/07/2020 17:57

We have had about 42mm near Kaikohe and expecting the same again before midnight. Its raining heavily now but the wind is the main issue. Its very strong and gusty.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Wed 15/07/2020 18:44

4mm of light rain this afternoon. expecting it to get heavier but not looking like it on radar unfortunately

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 15/07/2020 18:58

Water vapour 6.30pm pic showing some decent moisture plumes punching into the mid levels above Northland ahead of the occluded front.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 15/07/2020 19:45

The current dewpoint at Kaitaia is 16C while Whangarei dewpoint is 11C. There is some locally very heavy rain on the warm front but it probably won't make it as far south as Auckland city. EU has cut back on rainfall totals.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 15/07/2020 19:55

ENE wind is now picking up here.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 15/07/2020 20:49

I’ve managed to pick up 16mm so far today which is much more than I was expecting.

Is this system running further south than forecast or did the models just underestimate the totals for this area?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Twister sista · Unread post by **Twister sista** » Wed 15/07/2020 21:21

Im in te aroha and its fair blowing now, can hear it roaring down the mountain and shaking hell out of the house

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 15/07/2020 22:39

Hearing the wind here last 30mins.
Big Cbs upper Northland area

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 16/07/2020 06:57

11.6mm here last 24 hours. Some strong gusts late last night, up to 64 kmh on the weather station.

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Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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