Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by tornado »

thats a tornadic waterspout. man. certainly been a few tornadoes around auckland and northland this year.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by spwill »

Impressive tornado.
I see kerikeri is up to 134.2mm for today.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Twister sista wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 13:54
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 07:39

Secondary upper lows can change the dynamics of a weather system and make forecasting difficult. This morning Northland have a severe thunderstorm warning in an area Metservice said only had a low chance of storms along with the rain band further south than forecast.
Thanks so much for explaining that, could this be the reason we are still having really strong wind and gusts in te aroha still?
The upper vortex and cold pool west of Northland last night energised the weather system which has led to the Northland deluge and continued poor weather in your location. Weather models and official forecasters were caught napping overnight.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

This low is having some fun. It has shed another vortex which is spinning near the BOP. Juicy cell production line into Northland. A Waitangi gauge now has a 181mm 24 hour total. SH 1 Ohaeawai to Kawakawa road now closed near the Bay of Islands.

Spitting light rain atm locally.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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I was on the beach a couple of bays down from the Northland tornado. I locked onto the "jet engine" sound as have heard it before but nothing seen. I put it down to a microburst. Wind didn't shift where I was, but intense lightning and straight winds from the NE. Get home after gingerly picking my way through surface flooding debris and see Ohaeawai got 180mm today. Some decent surface flooding at Waipapa, just outside Kerikeri - Haven't seen water there since Bola.
Ev170720.JPG
Ev170720.SH10. Waipapa.JPG
EV170720. Road Debris.png
Doesn't show, but that's a 40cm high "wall" of 150mm rip-rap on the RHS of the road in that last shot.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Looks similar to the tornado event near Ohope, BOP in August 2018
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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intresting its the third tornado in northland this year. nz herald reported one in whangarei. and then the mangawhai tornado as well as the auckland and papamoa ones. its been a good year for twisters being caught on vid this year it seems.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by spwill »

59.6mm for Whangarei over the past hr. Kerikeri with another 19mm in the past hr, 180mm for the day so far.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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metservice has high risk for northland now. they should add small tornadoes possible. as one has been reported. although only tvnz reported it. other media not intrested. also been alot of severe thunderstorm warnings there today. wished it could be south towards auckland
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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The mid level moisture continues to increase over the upper NI in the last hour. This is turning into a water bomb for Northland.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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drought is over for northland after tonight. a red thunderstorm warning is in place. i guess the waterspout dissipitated before it hit land. which is why no reports of tornado/wind damage. and which is also why other media hasnt been intrested. a fairly large spout though.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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light rain starting here now. im only expecting a few mm unfortunatly.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 19:31 The mid level moisture continues to increase over the upper NI in the last hour. This is turning into a water bomb for Northland.
Quite amazing and yet the 3 day forecast rainfall Maps that Metservice analyse and generate from the main models is still way out of alignment. 85mm in Whangarei last 2 hours! Be massive issues up there if this isn't easing by midnight.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Yes, the MS 3 day rain forecast and global models continue to throw up junk projections on every run. It's a major miss and maybe its a legacy of no flight data coming into the models. Looks like MS are using obs, radar and satellite imagery since this morning for their warnings and thrown the models aside.

That convergence zone around the Whangarei region is not budging and its back building from the north.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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This gauge in Whangarei is heading towards 200mm fast. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWHANG40

Lots of cars becoming stranded on social media.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Yes just continues to develop more and more in behind to the north indeed. Some really big issues up in Northland already with plenty of houses flooded and cars in streets as rivers. Some photos on this facebook page tell the story with plenty more rain on the way!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/180659649294474/
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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The dewpoint at Whangarie is 15C and at Kaitaia 16C. So subtropical surface conditions with explosive cb's!
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Radar shows the convergence continues to back build into Whangarei. This is escalating.....

Only boats can fill up at this service station.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I see another water spout off Russel on the news!
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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There is mid level mesoscale eddy just off the coast of the Bay of Island that has developed in the last hour or 2. It's feeding the convergence zone in the mid levels.
Last edited by Cyclone Tracy on Fri 17/07/2020 22:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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I see Whangarei has recorded 50mm in the last hour... and nearly 160mm since 7pm! christ...
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 22:02 I see Whangarei has recorded 50mm in the last hour... and nearly 160mm since 7pm! christ...
I think the drought is over now for Northland.
It's sad when you get hardly any rain and then you get a deluge.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 22:09
snowchaser01 wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 22:02 I see Whangarei has recorded 50mm in the last hour... and nearly 160mm since 7pm! christ...
I think the drought is over now for Northland.
It's sad when you get hardly any rain and then you get a deluge.
Yes, this is a one of the more emphatic ways to end a drought I have ever seen. Reports starting to filter through of major damage and flooding.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by spwill »

There was 84mm on Wednesday for Whangarei, a very wet period for them.

The active part of the convergence is just east of Whangarei now.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Glenbervie, just north of Whangarei looking to potentially clock 300mm !
Haven't seen flooding like this for a couple of decades...
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