Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Cyclone Tracy
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

21mm so far here, light rain now. Consistent wind gusts around 50 km/h through the night, which is quite windy for my position to the easterly.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by spwill »

Locations exposed to the easterly have done well, Whitianga up to 65.4mm.
Whangarei, 99.4mm and Kerikeri 115.2mm
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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14mm here. northland might get a isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. not sure about auckland :(
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Wind has moved from east to more ENE again here. Looks like the low in the Tasman wiggled slightly west in the last 2 hours causing the knock on effect.

Another 6mm with showers off the gulf brings the running total to 27mm
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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slightly disapointing. looks like drought is trying to grow again. when will we get more rain. models shows a front next week though.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Absolutely getting hammered in Te Aroha we have lost the fence, neighbours have lost there garage roof,
lots damage in the town area
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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yes reports in media of damage out that way. gale force winds or kaimai buster they calling it. least not a mini tornado lol
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

Unread post by David »

Drab and drizzly day here, 2mm spread through the day since 7am. Only 14mm for this event, quite a bit below expectations...
Image
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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David wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 18:28 Drab and drizzly day here, 2mm spread through the day since 7am. Only 14mm for this event, quite a bit below expectations...
yes a bit disapointing. and not alot of rain hit the dams also. :( models showing a cold front next tuesday. showers through to sunday. so auckland was rain shadowed.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Drizzling here as well which is keeping the gauge ticking over. Locally, the models average was between 48 to 58mm for the 4 days at the start of the event, I think I'm going to do that easily by Sunday if the low crawls east.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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I'm spotting a 2nd circulation to the east of the main low. I've looped it several times on both the IR and water vapour images and there is a definite circulation. It seems the main low has spun out a 2nd upper vortex through vortex shedding. Water vapour is showing a small upper cold pool circulating.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Sorry new to all of this can you explain what that means?
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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tornado wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 18:09 yes reports in media of damage out that way. gale force winds or kaimai buster they calling it. least not a mini tornado lol
Paeroa recorded easterly gusts to 100 km/h yesterday according to MS (as did Whangaparaoa on Wednesday), so possibly even stronger in Te Aroha. The Waikato Regional Council's regional hazard warnings usually include this comment during strong easterly events:
Strong easterly winds are exacerbated by the orographic effects of the Kaimai Range. Therefore areas to the west of the Kaimai Range are prone to increased wind speeds, colloquially called the ‘Kaimai Buster’.
(source)
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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spwill wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 08:39 Locations exposed to the easterly have done well, Whitianga up to 65.4mm.
Whangarei, 99.4mm and Kerikeri 115.2mm
I see Kerikeri Aero recorded a whopping 46mm in the hour to 5am this morning, bringing its total for the last 48 hrs or so to 185mm, followed by 153mm at Whitianga Aero.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Twister sista wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 23:49 Sorry new to all of this can you explain what that means?
Secondary upper lows can change the dynamics of a weather system and make forecasting difficult. This morning Northland have a severe thunderstorm warning in an area Metservice said only had a low chance of storms along with the rain band further south than forecast.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Some decent cells moving through Northland.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 07:39
Twister sista wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 23:49 Sorry new to all of this can you explain what that means?
Secondary upper lows can change the dynamics of a weather system and make forecasting difficult. This morning Northland have a severe thunderstorm warning in an area Metservice said only had a low chance of storms along with the rain band further south than forecast.
Just add that, the secondary upper vortex was nearer Northland so a better chance of those Tasman shower bands reaching Northland. The primary vortex is out in the mid Tasman, too far away unfortunately.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 07:39
Twister sista wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 23:49 Sorry new to all of this can you explain what that means?
Secondary upper lows can change the dynamics of a weather system and make forecasting difficult. This morning Northland have a severe thunderstorm warning in an area Metservice said only had a low chance of storms along with the rain band further south than forecast.

yes but low risk doesnt mean no risk. just a low chance.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Better late than never I suppose. MS have now put out the heavy rain warning for Northland. I think MS might have been watching the models and not the satellite imagery last night :smile:
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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GFS keeping much of the precipitation north of Auckland next few days. :(
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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spwill wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 09:13 GFS keeping much of the precipitation north of Auckland next few days. :(
yes a bit disappointing really. but we might get a good drop of rain along with maybe thunder (too far out) next tuesday. only 14mm from this system. just comes to show that drought might be growing again. and looks like that might continue and not end for a while. sad. :(
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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The Waihopo council gauge in Northland is currently on 105mm for today. EC, GFS & UK projected 5mm on the last 12z run to this point.

Frontal boundary now dipping past lower Northland near Hibiscus coast.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Kerikeri with 115mm on Wednesday and 102mm so far today, 46.2mm in an hr earlier this morning .Looking very unstable around the top of Northland currently
That type of rain here would quickly solve Aucklands water storage issues.
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Re: Tasman low NI 15 -19 July

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 17/07/2020 07:39
Twister sista wrote: Thu 16/07/2020 23:49 Sorry new to all of this can you explain what that means?
Secondary upper lows can change the dynamics of a weather system and make forecasting difficult. This morning Northland have a severe thunderstorm warning in an area Metservice said only had a low chance of storms along with the rain band further south than forecast.
Thanks so much for explaining that, could this be the reason we are still having really strong wind and gusts in te aroha still?
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