NZ Weather Forum

I think this might be worth a separate thread. A large extra-tropical cyclone now deepening in the central Tasman. Multiple fronts and troughs will move across several areas of the NI from Wednesday into the weekend. Plenty of active weather ahead.

yes but it is forecast to weaken as it does so. still some interesting weather coming for us north island. south island... high pressure

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 14/07/2020 11:05 Plenty of active weather ahead.

Not down here, sadly

May get a tornado report from Northland/north Auckland with this system given the moist subtropical air that is modelled for the region.
Dp's 14-15C Friday/Saturday.

The mid latitude cyclone is still deepening on sunset and starting to get that cinnamon scroll look about it. The wind field is rapidly expanding with it's reach going to be the entire width of the Tasman by the morning.

Yes. Looks like a lot of that cloud will move onto the eastern SI bringing lots of dull days "Clagg" until early next week.
Might have to go back over to the West Coast for another hoilday.
Maybe MS should have a "Clagg" warning in their severe weather forecasts as dull overcast days in a row can cause depression in some people.?

It does have a nice structure on the maps. Seems to be stuck in place, but looks threatening.

EU 24 hour rainfall totals for Auckland region to midday Thursday. This period captures most of the precip from the warm front. Should be some useful rainfall for the dams, fingers crossed.

Hunua dams need a lot more than 40mm. Hoping we get more than modelled

For here locally, the average from 9 global and regional models on the 12z run is projecting a rainfall range of 48 to 58mm over the 4 days. Models significantly underestimated the last event on 25 to 27 June that was a similar synoptic set up .

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 15/07/2020 07:31 For here locally, the average from 9 global and regional models on the 12z run is projecting a rainfall range of 48 to 58mm over the 4 days. Models significantly underestimated the last event on 25 to 27 June that was a similar synoptic set up .

i agree that event was a little similar. close radar watching and media watching for reports of tornadoes.

moderate rain. is starting to develope in auckland. see what happens. metservice got low risk of thunder with a low risk of downpours for us tommorow afternoon. maybe a rumble. im expecting a twister report too.

rain moved south. im worried we may not get anything at all i might declare a thunder drought soon.

The am hours tomorrow is when most of the rain will come through (GFS)

It's just starting to rain hard here near Kaikohe. I did my feeding out early to miss the heavy downfalls.

Just 1mm so far unfortunately.

Warm front now inching down around Whangarei with dew points 13c to 15c across most of Northland. A PWS on the east side of Whangarei now on 35mm , Whangaroa 70mm, Kerikeri 62mm.

Light rain and light easterly here to start things off.

We have had about 42mm near Kaikohe and expecting the same again before midnight. Its raining heavily now but the wind is the main issue. Its very strong and gusty.

4mm of light rain this afternoon. expecting it to get heavier but not looking like it on radar unfortunately

Water vapour 6.30pm pic showing some decent moisture plumes punching into the mid levels above Northland ahead of the occluded front.

The current dewpoint at Kaitaia is 16C while Whangarei dewpoint is 11C. There is some locally very heavy rain on the warm front but it probably won't make it as far south as Auckland city. EU has cut back on rainfall totals.

ENE wind is now picking up here.

I’ve managed to pick up 16mm so far today which is much more than I was expecting.

Is this system running further south than forecast or did the models just underestimate the totals for this area?


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Im in te aroha and its fair blowing now, can hear it roaring down the mountain and shaking hell out of the house

Hearing the wind here last 30mins.
Big Cbs upper Northland area

11.6mm here last 24 hours. Some strong gusts late last night, up to 64 kmh on the weather station.