NZ Weather Forum

Hmm a high over nz with a dissipating low teasing our weather to start the new month. niwa says to expect normal rainfall.

Another day of thick high cloud and not much wind but the cloud did thin later this afternoon and evening.
Today's maximum was 15.8C.

Some very cold signals starting to show up on all the major models for around that 10-14th August period which is line with what Tony said around 10 days ago...

Bradley wrote: ↑Sun 02/08/2020 09:11 Some very cold signals starting to show up on all the major models for around that 10-14th August period which is line with what Tony said around 10 days ago...

Been showing for a few days, if that wave in the jet to our south straightens and comes our way there is some very cold air bottled up. Worth a thread Bradley, start it.

MJO is currently in phase 4 which is the anticyclonic phase for NZ, but the blocking H to the east and the north to northeast airflow we are stuck under is more phase 5. If the flow is going to go well southwest in the near future then we need the MJO to push back towards phases 2&3. Currently only the JMA wants to bring that on, the rest can't make up their minds. Just how cold and how long lasting this next cold shot is will depend on where the MJO settles to.

Bradley wrote: ↑Sun 02/08/2020 09:11 Some very cold signals starting to show up on all the major models for around that 10-14th August period which is line with what Tony said around 10 days ago...

Good. I hope so. Getting sick of this stagnant weather we are getting at the moment Upper level clagg

Sick of the recent weather too. Been dry but very cloudy with fresh cool E to NE winds.

Good anticyclone out to the east of NZ.
Should be noted that it exceeded the 1040 hPa mark.

is been over a week since it last rained here and no real rain is expected here until Friday
so that is a long run (although 10 days you could expect but not 14 days?) for winter with no rain

Another day of extensive high cloud but much warmer with today's maximum being 17.2C.

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Sun 02/08/2020 20:10 is been over a week since it last rained here and no real rain is expected here until Friday
so that is a long run (although 10 days you could expect but not 14 days?) for winter with no rain

Its the driest Ive even seen this place in winter. That's another aspect of our changing climate, the 100mm + rainfall events have become few and far between here in Canterbury, been a long time since the last flooding rainfall.

usually august is very wet for north island and thundery. but its been very dry. but not much sun. maybe thunder chance end of week.

nice to see the sun here today after a long cloudy run

gone cloudy here with light rain at the moment. i remember last august had 29 of rain or showers straight. i also counted 7 days of thunder. that may not happen this month.

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 03/08/2020 07:16

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Sun 02/08/2020 20:10 is been over a week since it last rained here and no real rain is expected here until Friday
so that is a long run (although 10 days you could expect but not 14 days?) for winter with no rain

Its the driest Ive even seen this place in winter. That's another aspect of our changing climate, the 100mm + rainfall events have become few and far between here in Canterbury, been a long time since the last flooding rainfall.

I agree about the dry- I have never seen the Port Hills trails mud free in August before, its nice to run on but somewhat troubling!

Definitely been dry around here for a while now after the June/early July rain spells, still doesn’t seem like everything that should green up has done so. Driving up and down to Kaikoura regularly there is still a lot of brown around.

Herbert was fairly muddy lower down a couple of weeks ago if you want to find some Razor

Quite the upper cold pool modelled by GFS today for Saturday, below -30C for the most of the country and as low as -35C for the west coast. Could be interesting in terms of thunder/hail.

There was a wetter than normal June for eastern Canterbury as it was for the NE of the North Island. July seeing a lot more drier than normal weather.
The pattern ahead looks to have some spells of colder wintry weather, see if that eventuates

Chris W wrote: ↑Mon 03/08/2020 10:25 Definitely been dry around here for a while now after the June/early July rain spells, still doesn’t seem like everything that should green up has done so. Driving up and down to Kaikoura regularly there is still a lot of brown around.

Herbert was fairly muddy lower down a couple of weeks ago if you want to find some Razor

Quite the upper cold pool modelled by GFS today for Saturday, below -30C for the most of the country and as low as -35C for the west coast. Could be interesting in terms of thunder/hail.

I went up up Herbert and along to Mt Fitzgerald and back Sunday before last- dry trails the whole way about from in the gully low down on Herbert.

Must have dried up a fair amount, I was actually up there 3 weeks ago on July 11th after it snowed there and there hadn’t been a whole lot of sun on the valley. Mud aplenty in the valley then, but not too surprising that it dried out.

spwill wrote: ↑Mon 03/08/2020 10:40
The pattern ahead looks to have some spells of colder wintry weather, see if that eventuates

Significant cold weather for southern parts of Australia this week , looking particularly wintry tomorrow for Tasmania and southern parts of Victoria.

2 cents worth and it's early days, so purely speculation. This upper low that is about to launch into SE Australia, will cut off and move into the Northern Tasman this weekend. Then it gets quite interesting as a long wave trough starts push into the Tasman near the same period. It's all about timing but EC & GFS are starting to show hints of a dipping subtropical jet, cut off upper low and long wave trough around NZ at the same time. The vorticity signature at 300 hPa on tonight's runs for next week has a late July 2008 look about it. Old thread for reference. viewtopic.php?f=21&t=3153

I double your 2 cents worth haha
I think something is gonna blow for sure
(for 1 week from now re next north tasman low)

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Mon 03/08/2020 09:21 nice to see the sun here today after a long cloudy run

It was a bit like that here today, nice to see the sun with cloud breaking but with alot of Cc around, what they call mackerel sky cloud.
However clouding up later this afternoon with a shower or 2 out to the east.
Today's maximum was 15.8C.

Weather pattern looking more mobile/ changeable now
Plenty of Tui birds around Mt Eden at the moment.

beautiful morning here so far. with fog/mist in the distance.