Tasman low NI 11 August

[Cyclone Tracy]

A deepening Tasman low will move near the upper NI later tonight, producing active weather across areas of the NI on Tuesday. Heavy rain warning is now in place for Northland with rain and wind watches in place for Auckland, Coromandel and Northland. Depending on the location of the surface low later tonight, will determine where the most active weather will occur. Global models are currently mixed on this point with the BoM's upgraded Access G3 bringing a deeper low near the west coast of Northland.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Rippling gravity wave clouds starting to appear over the upper NI as the subtropical jet starts to dip.

Locally, the average rainfall projection on the 00Z run across 7 global models and the MetService regional model is between 35 to 45 mm for Tuesday.

[David]

Hoping Hunua ranges can pick up well over 50mm from this. One of the dams there still isn't even up to 50%, in August!

[Cyclone Tracy]

NIWA's internal modelling believes that a Jet energised occluded front will pop around Auckland late Tuesday afternoon. MS not buying into it but there is always plenty of uncertainty with these set ups

[Cyclone Tracy]

Northland this morning : Touwai 66mm, Tutukaka 85 km/h

[spwill]

Whangarei currently on 17.1C, Hamilton on 9.5C, both with rain.

Light to mod rain here, 12.1C

[Cyclone Tracy]

Briefly had a rainfall rate of 35mm/hr. Back to light rain now. 11mm so far, gusty ENE, 13c dew point. Squall line appearing on the frontal boundary moving through Northland atm.

[spwill]

Mostly light rain here so far, breezy and now 13C.

Warm rain at Whangarei, 17.9C with a dp of 15C there.

[David]

Bit disappointing so far with light rain... fingers crossed something intensifies this afternoon as the radar isn't overly impressive currently

[tornado]

17light to mod rain so far. heavy rain risk is late this afternoon i believe

[Cyclone Tracy]

15.7c with a 15c DP now. Wind ENE squeezing to NE.

[spwill]

Warmer air arrived here now and brighter skies, radar shows good rain across NW Auckland.

[Awhituobs]

Torrential rain here with a NW wind change

[David]

Another non event here, 11mm and clearing already. 19mm for Mangatangi reservoir.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Yep, light on here as well. 15mm. Peaked north, west and further east in the gulf again. Northland continues to be in the sweet spot for the lows.

Council gauges tell the story in Auckland.

[Awhituobs]

28mm here, which tallies well with the local ARC council rain gauge on that map
we often do well in a warm front, with a bit of lift over the hills and a bit of a lee trough in the easterly down the coastline

[Razor]

Another non event here, 11mm and clearing already. 19mm for Mangatangi reservoir.

Would love 11mm here!!!!

[Awhituobs]

surely the next northerly rain system will deliver for the Hunua dams

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Went into timaru today.
I think I counted 3 spits of drizzle on the windscreen.

[Richard]

Another non event here, 11mm and clearing already. 19mm for Mangatangi reservoir.

Would love 11mm here!!!!

Yer, that would feel like a huge rainfall