General September Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

21.3 here today

Warm at Mt Cook/Aoraki village today with a maximum of 21.5C.

[Cyclone Tracy]

5 global models are suggesting 5mm of rain for the next 10 days locally. The Hadley cell is not remotely interested in moving poleward as this stage which may also mean a cooler September on the NI. The driest September I've ever recorded is 57.5 mm in 2015 (2001 to 2019 records). Currently I'm on 5.4 mm for the month. The strong La Nina year of 2010 I scored 133.5 mm for September.

[Awhituobs]

we have had some very wet septembers here in the past, eg 247mm in 1997!
and only 34mm in 1965 here

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Lovely fine day here after the frost this morning, with it getting to a maximum of 16.7C

[Chris W]

Looking at a chance of hail tomorrow right up the eastern South Island with the southeasterly change with 500mb temperatures up close to -30C (GFS), no thunder risk probably due to lack of heating and only a low risk of heavy snow for the high country. Looks a chilly change.

Meanwhile a very pleasant warm day in Kaikoura

[NZstorm]

Looking at a chance of hail tomorrow right up the eastern South Island with the southeasterly change with 500mb temperatures up close to -30C (GFS), no thunder risk probably due to lack of heating and only a low risk of heavy snow for the high country. Looks a chilly change.

There will always be a risk of lightning when the air is that cold. The colder the airmass a loft, the easier to get charge separation from growing clouds.

The surface dewpoint will be around 7C which will be unstable in an airmass that cold.

[JP.]

Lovely day in Christchurch City - Hit 23c bathed in sunshine

[Chris W]

Looking at a chance of hail tomorrow right up the eastern South Island with the southeasterly change with 500mb temperatures up close to -30C (GFS), no thunder risk probably due to lack of heating and only a low risk of heavy snow for the high country. Looks a chilly change.

There will always be a risk of lightning when the air is that cold. The colder the airmass a loft, the easier to get charge separation from growing clouds.

The surface dewpoint will be around 7C which will be unstable in an airmass that cold.

True, but the heating is often the missing ingredient and guess that's why MS aren't putting anything out on it.

[NZstorm]

True, but the heating is often the missing ingredient and guess that's why MS aren't putting anything out on it.

The Met Service day2 thunderstorm outlooks tend to be a bit inaccurate and they improve with the day1.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A lesser frost this morning after the previous 2 mornings. Still white on the grass at sunrise.
Warmed up later this morning become 22.4C in light westerly conditions but with increasing high cloud during the afternoon and with a light SE flow, the temperature gradually dropped away. Not much wind. 10C this evening in relatively calm conditions.

[jamie]

Seem to be getting our share of nights around zero....finally. Shame they didn’t actually come in june July and are now all coming late August and early September.

Desperate for rain. Pasture growth rates are well behind normal here. Lacking moisture big time and soil temp cooler too due to constant low over night temps.

One thing I’ve noted this spring is very few blossoms. All our trees are basically going straight to leaf. Not sure why but a quick google search says water stress can be a factor in that.

[spwill]

Saw the first wild Pohutakawa flowers yesterday up at Whangaparaoa

[mikestormchaser]

Looking at a chance of hail tomorrow right up the eastern South Island with the southeasterly change with 500mb temperatures up close to -30C (GFS), no thunder risk probably due to lack of heating and only a low risk of heavy snow for the high country. Looks a chilly change.

Meanwhile a very pleasant warm day in Kaikoura

Upper air looked cold today chris but other numbers and timing never matched up.
Looked like just a good rain band set up this morning then clearing to showers this afternoon. Could be a few small hail showers later though?

I see next week there is another change which Tony T talked about last night.. that change could well be one to watch evolve over next couple of days thunder wise here in Canterbury

[David]

Been a cool start to September so far with mean temp at 11.3C. The winter months were 13.2C, 11.4C, 12.0C.

[tornado]

Been a cool start to September so far with mean temp at 11.3C. The winter months were 13.2C, 11.4C, 12.0C.

yes a cool but dry month. but looks like rain and possible hail for a couple of days next week.

[spwill]

Been a cool start to September so far with mean temp at 11.3C. The winter months were 13.2C, 11.4C, 12.0C.

yes a cool but dry month. but looks like rain and possible hail for a couple of days next week.

Perhaps some hail for eastern parts of Auckland tomorrow afternoon. Yes a cool feel to start September

[tornado]

yes a cool but dry month. but looks like rain and possible hail for a couple of days next week.

Perhaps some hail for eastern parts of Auckland tomorrow afternoon. Yes a cool feel to start September

yes a trough crosses over so some parts have risk hail. low thunder risk.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking dark and bleak to the south at the moment.
Light NE at the moment, could be thundery?

[Chris W]

Looking at a chance of hail tomorrow right up the eastern South Island with the southeasterly change with 500mb temperatures up close to -30C (GFS), no thunder risk probably due to lack of heating and only a low risk of heavy snow for the high country. Looks a chilly change.

Meanwhile a very pleasant warm day in Kaikoura

Upper air looked cold today chris but other numbers and timing never matched up.
Looked like just a good rain band set up this morning then clearing to showers this afternoon. Could be a few small hail showers later though?

I see next week there is another change which Tony T talked about last night.. that change could well be one to watch evolve over next couple of days thunder wise here in Canterbury

I wasn't expecting anything bar heavy rain and possible hail, interesting to see whether the approaching trough brings the hail or not. Extra would be nice but generally without heating/DP above 9C it doesn't happen. The rain this morning about Kaiapoi was very heavy for a time, driving conditions like that haven't been around for a while.

[snowchaser01]

Looking dark and bleak to the south at the moment.
Light NE at the moment, could be thundery?

Certainly looks potentially thundery with hail on radar.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The front went through at 3:30pm. Rain and a bit of a squall.
Looked thunderstormic but petered out quite early as I believe there were some C-C strikes south of Timaru.

[tich]

Metservice added a low thunderstorm risk for South Canterbury for this afternoon. Sunny in Chch now.

[Razor]

Metservice added a low thunderstorm risk for South Canterbury for this afternoon. Sunny in Chch now.

No sunny in town 6/8ths cloudy

[tich]

Metservice added a low thunderstorm risk for South Canterbury for this afternoon. Sunny in Chch now.

No sunny in town 6/8ths cloudy

That was St Albans about 1/2 hour ago. Clouded over here now.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks like this system will peter out before reaching ChCh as MS on it's noon surface chart had an area of high pressure which this little trough came cross in it's movement north hindering possibly further development.