General September Weather

[snowykiwi]

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Clouds to the south of Rakaia

[Chris W]

Looking south from South Bay, Kaikõura, seeing a lot of flashes.

Edit - back from my walk now. Went from every 5-10 seconds to nearer to a minute between strikes 15 minutes or so later. That's the first offshore storm I've seen since flying alongside a supercell making its way off the Queensland coast last November, the one that totalled cars with cricket ball hail!

[mikechamble]

Some great flashes out S/SE from Christchurch out to sea at the mo. Quite far out but Good visibility. Can see from Parklands.

[Richard]

Can see it flashing from here too

[David]

WesternNorthIsland in with a thunder chance Thursday.

Have the models downgraded quite a bit since this post? I haven't been checking much recently, but I see MS has only a low risk western Waikato down through Taranaki tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[BeaconHill]

Maybe worthy of a new thread(?), but the low that looks likely to develop south east of the country early next week is looking quite impressive from both GFS and euro models. Shall we have a poll on how low it will actually go?.

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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Fine warm day with light winds between west and south.Warm in the sun with it getting up to 24.1C.
Some clouding from later in the afternoon moving eastwards out to sea providing some thunderstorm activity out in the Canterbury Bight.
Never saw anything from here apart from some glaciated showers from cloud moving out to the east delivering a light shower of 0.7mm this evening.

[Awhituobs]

nice rain here at the moment , so thursday is living up to original predictions nicely (i.e the convergence frontal trough and line moving all way onto the western NI ). The Waikato is getting this rain now too..nice warm rain for the time of year too.15C all night here

[David]

Only 0.4mm rain here today. Hopefully not heading back into a pattern of modelled rain events failing to deliver already...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Could be a chance of the sound of thunder hear tomorrow as today looked much better with castell**** development in clouds,much better than yesterday, especially this afternoon.
I had a dream this morning it snowed again on Monday?

[tornado]

Only 0.4mm rain here today. Hopefully not heading back into a pattern of modelled rain events failing to deliver already...

Some nice rain Sunday morning. So keep a eye on that. I knew this was gonna be patchy today's front. But Sunday looks better. As the front is connected to that bomb low.

[mikestormchaser]

That NW Has picked up again tonight, in Rolleston anyhow. Not sure about the city?
Can smell the pollen aswel on mild nights, usually from late September to mid October.

[cbm]

Presume this is just a model being fanciful

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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another fine, sunny day, a bit like yesterday with some Cu forms from the west developing this afternoon.
Light winds from the south or west.
Today's maximum was 23.4C.

[mikestormchaser]

Could be a chance of the sound of thunder hear tomorrow as today looked much better with castell**** development in clouds,much better than yesterday, especially this afternoon.
I had a dream this morning it snowed again on Monday?

I would actually put a low risk today john. Looking at the models this morning and another convergence on the otago and Canterbury coast this afternoon.. any cloud looks to clear away and upper temps are relatively cold. Colder than Wednesday. so might see a nice build up on the coast/ offshore again... teasing us John

[David]

20C at 11am. My September record of 21.6C might be under threat if some of this cloud clears up

[Awhituobs]

I see max was 22.4C at Ricky's currently ...at 11:06am...crazy

[David]

Record beaten! Sunnier since midday and has been up to to 21.9C in the last few minutes

[tornado]

21.7 here. warm day.

i see some thunderstorms on the lower north island.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

No thunderstorms down here today but here are some foaters I took of interesting clouds coming of the of Thunderstorm corner" area down here which is the 4 Peaks/ Mt Peel area, later this afternoon.
Today's maximum was 17.6C with a bit of a NE blowing for much of the day but it went more south to SW around 6pm.
Nothing much but dying out this evening and becoming calm.

[jamie]

I’ve just beaten my September record temp too.


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[Awhituobs]

Record September temperature for me too, 21.7c

[NZstorm]

Some thunderstorms reaching Taranaki now. New Plymouth airport showing 14C dp and ukmet shows it should be minus 19C at 500mb there this evening.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some thunderstorms reaching Taranaki now. New Plymouth airport showing 14C dp and ukmet shows it should be minus 19C at 500mb there this evening.

Also down Fiordland way.
Today's maximum here was 21.6C, around noon today but the northerly started to increase in strength from around 2pm, with some windy gusts from then on but easing away from 6pm.
Winds up a bit this evening with it being 13C at 10pm.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Locally, today's 12mm takes the monthly total to 25mm. 80mm below average (2001-2019) with less than 3 days left. MetService's North Shore gauge is also currently on 25mm MTD. My previous driest September was 2015 with 58mm, that dry record seems likely to be smashed this September.

IMO, La Nina will not influence the upper NI until the Hadley cells moves much further south. No sign yet in the medium term.