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Re: General September Weather
Posted: Sun 13/09/2020 23:11
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
A rather mild day with various amounts of NW cloud including some showing various forms of lenticualrity.
Today's maximum was 20.8C with light variable winds.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Mon 14/09/2020 22:45
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Another rather mild day with it getting up to 21.8C today with moderate winds from the west to NW direction. A bit windy for Geraldine.
No mention of wind in the general MS forecast for the Canterbury Plains, just saying fine with high cloud.?
With the warnings they issue, should be included in the general, what they call the
Short forecast which Is a term I disagree with, as I have said many times on this forum, bad grammar.
Anyway risk for thunderstorm look OK for tomorrow and more so for Thursday at the moment depending on conditions and timing.
Could be "Clayton" ones as well.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 08:33
by snowchaser01
GFS hinting at a severe winter storm for about a week's time, 22nd-23rd. First time in about 7 years i've seen numbers like what are being put out currently. EC not on board.... yet, but certainly one to watch.
Southerly flick at the end of this week too.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 09:07
by Awhituobs
ECMWF is showing a polar high and a low that will shovel cold air north for the 23rd and with a good moisture feed on the north side
could be warm advection snow setup possible
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 11:41
by tornado
shame the front is falling apart as it hits auckland now.
but on friday we may get some rain. looks to be a nice rain band/front moving through. according to models.
edit light to low mod rain now. will be gone soon i think.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 13:08
by Razor
snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Tue 15/09/2020 08:33
GFS hinting at a severe winter storm for about a week's time, 22nd-23rd. First time in about 7 years i've seen numbers like what are being put out currently. EC not on board.... yet, but certainly one to watch.
GFS doesn't want to know about that on the latest run. More westerly quarter pattern all next week I expect typical of normal spring weather
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 13:37
by snowchaser01
Razor wrote: ↑Tue 15/09/2020 13:08
snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Tue 15/09/2020 08:33
GFS hinting at a severe winter storm for about a week's time, 22nd-23rd. First time in about 7 years i've seen numbers like what are being put out currently. EC not on board.... yet, but certainly one to watch.
GFS doesn't want to know about that on the latest run. More westerly quarter pattern all next week I expect typical of normal spring weather
Yep, just one to watch over the next few days.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 17:33
by Awhituobs
nice to see some sun and some warmth here this afternoon (17c)
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 18:29
by mikestormchaser
Keep watch later this evening with a brief SW flick from about timaru north up to Banks peninsula.. could be coastal thunderstorm/ hail brushing past. Very coastal though
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 19:55
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 15/09/2020 18:29
Keep watch later this evening with a brief SW flick from about Timaru north up to Banks peninsula.. could be coastal thunderstorm/ hail brushing past. Very coastal though
Some lightning way out to the east of the Canterbury Bight this evening from clusters moving west to east way out there.
Must be Cc as nothing showing up on the Blitz. Sfreics on the AM.
Can't see anything from here, sadly..
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 20:30
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Looks like Horowhenua is getting it with a severe TW issued there
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Tue 15/09/2020 23:32
by mikestormchaser
Quite an intense cell clipped banks peninsula john tonight. Lightning on the tracker. Probably would of seen flashes to the east had i went outside
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Wed 16/09/2020 09:58
by Razor
Could be one of the last chances this season for a decent Canterbury skifield top up tomorrow night.
Looks like a rapid meltfest next week
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Wed 16/09/2020 17:59
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Nice Iridescence colouring on lenticular cloud this afternoon
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Wed 16/09/2020 19:26
by jamie
The most horrid weather the past few days. Cold gale and mostly cloudy. Yuk.
No decent rain in the 10 day forecast. What are some main centres record low rainfalls for september? If this pattern carries on we could be looking at some records.
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Re: General September Weather
Posted: Wed 16/09/2020 19:47
by Orion
Somewhat unusual to see iridescence on a lenticular cloud?
Great photo, details like that often don't photograph well.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Wed 16/09/2020 21:31
by Awhituobs
@jamie
certainly very dry/low rainfall
my soil moisture readings are starting to move to drier now...and spring has only just started
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Wed 16/09/2020 22:44
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
A fine day with NW winds and a maximum temperature of 21.7C.
The interesting feature for today was the Iridescence forms on a permanent lenticular cloud that lasted for a long time in breezy NW conditions this afternoon. This cloud lasted for a long period in one position before slowly dissipating this evening.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 06:36
by David
Just 23mm here month to date with the drier then normal pattern looking set to continue. The previous 10 years have averaged 128mm for September on my station, so well below normal this year.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 07:44
by Cyclone Tracy
9mm here MTD, 105 mm is my average for September. MetService North Shore site at Whangaparaoa is currently on 9.6mm MTD.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 08:11
by spwill
For northern NZ I think we will have to wait for the influence of sub tropical systems now to get back to near normal rainfall.
Month to date rainfall, Niwa
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 09:55
by tornado
looks like a band of rain tomorrow though. 15mm at the most. maybe a bit more.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 12:24
by Nev
jamie wrote: ↑Wed 16/09/2020 19:26
No decent rain in the 10 day forecast. What are some main centres record low rainfalls for september? If this pattern carries on we could be looking at some records.
Hamilton's driest Sep was in 2006. That month also saw the 2nd driest Sep recorded at Christchurch Aero and Dunedin.
Below are the lowest Sep rainfalls recorded at some of the other main centre sites:
Code: Select all
Lowest Sep Rainfalls Rain mm Year Records From
Auckland, Mangere 34.2 1965 1959
Auckland Aero 38.6 2008 1962
Auckland, Albert Park 18.9 1951 1853-1993
Auckland, Owairaka 15.5 1951 1949-2008
Tauranga Aero 15.8 1965 1898
Hamilton, Ruakura* 20.6 2006 1905 *new site
Hamilton, Ruakura* 26.2 2006 1905 *old site
Hamilton Aero 27.8 2006 1935
Wellington, Kelburn 8.2 1989 1928
Christchurch Aero 1.5 1980 1943
Christchurch Gardens 3.9 1915 1864
Dunedin, Musselburgh 6.3 1958 1918
Chch Gardens also missing data for Sep 1980 (airport record).
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 22:21
by cbm
September has been one reliably wet month most years, including even last year which was way below average rainfall overall. Have to really hope for a month like December 2018 in Summer this year. My gauge is 462.8mm YTD, this day last year was 523.8mm, so 60mm behind.
Re: General September Weather
Posted: Thu 17/09/2020 22:25
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Warm and windy day here in Geraldine today and up to 23C.
Rain band along the Alps with some possible thunderstorms there but nothing here.
Southerly came through this evening and delivered 9.9mm of rain to 10pm this evening.