NZ Weather Forum

jamie wrote: ↑Tue 22/09/2020 11:25 Warm north west meeting a westerly. This is looking SW toward Hamilton. Building nicely.


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this is happening in auckland too. intresting cloud alright.

Fine overnight but NW cloud increasing during the day with light winds.
Becoming rather warm despite the cloudy conditions with it peaking at 23.3C for today.
Light westerlies later this afternoon and evening.

looking promising alright for thunderstorms here tomorrow as Steven pointed out at the start of the week
you can see some already starting to form on the boundary line in the tasman

Spring equinox was at 1 30 am this morning so officially starts the spring/summer season.

Warm day ahead in alot of parts to.. variable winds later, NE to NW to even SW tonight. Light though which will be good

You may not get the NW at all today Mike, the NW wind that's been quite strong at times for the last 24 hours has its died out and gone slight easterly

I'm liking the chances of some storms on the plains this afternoon too...

metservice thunderstorm outlook doesnt look good for tomorrow atm they will update tonight or tomorrow probably. at least some rain coming up.

snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 08:07 I'm liking the chances of some storms on the plains this afternoon too...

Not really seeing it today. Coastal wind convergences pm. Surface DP an issue and upper air isnt that cold 500mb -22.

Richard its a stunning morning! Very mild and light winds. Nice to have rather than the howling NW

Just hit 20c for the first time since 10th May.

20c here too. spring is here. some patchy rain tommorow. thunderstorms in the mix too.

Just noticed 20.6C on the weather station. Thought today might be the first day of the season to reach 20.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 12:13 Just hit 20c for the first time since 10th May.

Incredible, I would have thought Auckland would have had a few over 20c in August. Christchurch has had 7 days over 20c since the 3rd May.

Currently enjoying 26.4c on Jeff's station, metservice has 24c

Nice and warm in Geraldine today, sitting on 24C at the moment.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 13:07 Nice and warm in Geraldine today, sitting on 24C at the moment.

Beautiful day isn't john. Feels like about mid 20s in chch to. Well.. beautiful day in terms of sunny warm weather. Boring because no thunderstorms

CMC, Access & UkMet were first pick this up but others are now joining in on a full scale polar streamer next Monday off the back of the weekend low with the long wave trough. Too early for finer details but this is a serious cold shot of air from the polar vortex if it verifies. The upper trough is projected to be fully coupled between the lower stratosphere and mid troposphere with the polar jet launching an attack from over the south pole into the NZ region.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 14:46 CMC, Access & UkMet were first pick this up but others are now joining in on a full scale polar streamer next Monday off the back of the weekend low with the long wave trough. Too early for finer details but this is a serious cold shot of air from the polar vortex if it verifies. The upper trough is projected to be fully coupled between the lower stratosphere and mid troposphere with the polar jet launching an attack from over the south pole into the NZ region.

Yup, currently looks confined to Southland and Otago what wont take much for it to straighten up slightly. Looks major

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 14:32

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 13:07 Nice and warm in Geraldine today, sitting on 24C at the moment.

Beautiful day isn't john. Feels like about mid 20s in chch to. Well.. beautiful day in terms of sunny warm weather. Boring because no thunderstorms

Lunchtime run in the Port Hills, Jeffs at Cashmere was recording 27 degrees, in the Bowenvale it felt event hotter!

Light southerly through and becoming a bit cooler.
Some cloud builds around but nothing to get excited about.
I see the Blitz recorded some strikes in the look like Lewis Pass area?

A nice line of hard-edged bubbly clouds billowing up to the south;
temp. has fallen away to 18.1°C currently, still sunny.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 14:46 CMC, Access & UkMet were first pick this up but others are now joining in on a full scale polar streamer next Monday off the back of the weekend low with the long wave trough. Too early for finer details but this is a serious cold shot of air from the polar vortex if it verifies. The upper trough is projected to be fully coupled between the lower stratosphere and mid troposphere with the polar jet launching an attack from over the south pole into the NZ region.

There is a cross-polar jet at the moment dragging some cold to our south, with not as much energy taking it east and south of us as has has been the case for the past couple of months. So if that crossing trough does tap into that and drag it north it could be pretty cold:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 10,-66.474

Stratobserve/GFS in the past couple of weeks has been showing some possible distortions of the lower stratospheric vortex leading to streamers as the vortex begins to weaken, so maybe this is the first to really head our way.

Orion wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 17:08 A nice line of hard-edged bubbly clouds billowing up to the south;

The radar is showing something but doesn't seem much from here, looks uneventful although there was a bit of glaciation.

Nice glaciated CB over the back of Banks Peninsula right now

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 17:37 Nice glaciated CB over the back of Banks Peninsula right now

Some distant sferics coming out of that cloud.

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 17:37 Nice glaciated CB over the back of Banks Peninsula right now

Yes coastal PM convergence today but was never going to effect the plains today unfortunately

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 18:12

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 23/09/2020 17:37 Nice glaciated CB over the back of Banks Peninsula right now

Yes coastal PM convergence today but was never going to effect the plains today unfortunately

That's what I gathered there Mikey.
Some weak cu forms down here later this afternoon moving off to the east from the 4 Peaks area or TC, which developed into that line of Cbs offshore.
Anyway, roll on to the next system, maybe this WE, might be more fruitful, with a colder upper atmos?