UK Weather - Autumn 2020

[Simon Culling]

Autumn has started rather quietly this year and this rather benign weather looks like continuing for a while. It has been generally cloudy for the last few days, but there has been a little sunshine. Rain has been light and patchy here in the south, but the north saw a bit more on Tues/Weds. Looking forward, it will turn a little cooler over the weekend with a few showers, but a ridge of high pressure pushing up from the south early next week will give us a warmer and brighter interlude for much of the working week before it turns cooler again next weekend - and more unsettled.

Nature seems to be a little ahead of itself this year, with some of the leaves already starting to turn brown and certain crops/fruits seem to have been harvested a few weeks early. I think the long, warm and sunny Spring, which started as the lockdown began in mid-March, was the main cause of this and we might be treated to a very good Autumn colour change this year.

The usual winter predictions are beginning to appear with the hopecasters expecting cold and snow. Bearing in mind the coronavirus and the perilous state of our economy, I think it is a fair prediction that the weather this winter will not help the situation - so cold and wet it is! If the La Nina develops as expected, this tends to favour colder winters for the UK and indeed much of Western Europe.

[Simon Culling]

The rather benign weather continues here in the UK with a little rain, some sunshine and mostly average temperatures. We did have a foggy start here in Tiverton on Monday morning to remind us that Autumn is now with us, but it had cleared by 9am as there is still plenty of warmth left in the sun.

Not much will change over the next few days, although the rather muggy weather we have at present will be replaced by cooler and fresher air from the NW by the end of this week. Looking further ahead, it looks like high pressure will dominate in the south giving us fine, dry and warmer weather with some decent sunny days next week, but the shorter days will mean cooler nights if it remains clear.

The CET for September was 14.6°C (-0.1°C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 10mm also up to the 6th, which is 13% of the monthly average of 78mm.

[Simon Culling]

There was a small earthquake yesterday (Tuesday 8th September) in the English Midlands. It was felt in my old haunt of Milton Keynes and surrounding towns and cities, but thankfully does not appear to have done any damage. It has been rated at 3.3 on the Richter scale which is quite high for the UK and it was centred near the town of Leighton Buzzard in Buckinghamshire.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-b ... s-54070889

I remember a quake of similar magnitude about 15 years ago when I lived in Milton Keynes. It occurred at about 1am in the morning and I could feel the house shake and there was a long low grumble (lasted about 10-15 seconds) that I initially thought was thunder.

[Simon Culling]

It has been a little cooler in the last couple of days with some chilly nights (with a local ground frost), but it has been mostly dry with some sunshine at times. I had to wear a fleece for the first time since May yesterday evening!

However, the weather is set to warm up considerably this weekend and into next week with the mercury likely to pass 30°C again in the south east and London area. Some very active fronts will cross the north of the UK this weekend with parts of western Scotland likely to see 100-200mm of rain by Monday. This will draw very warm air up from the south into most of the UK by then and as it dries out, Scotland should also see some of this warmth.

The CET for September was 14.8°C (+0.4°C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 12mm up to the 10th which is 15% of the monthly average. The CET will likely rise considerably this coming week.

[Simon Culling]

Monday 14th September was a warm and sunny day over most of England + Wales with a top temperature of 29.6°C at Charlwood in the county of Surrey, just to the south of London. Here in Tiverton, we had blue skies all day and a top temperature of 27°C which is not bad for mid-September. The warm weather will continue today and tomorrow, but a build of pressure from the NW will shift the wind to the NE or E and bring much cooler air across the country by Thursday, although it will remain dry and sunny. Could be some chilly nights.

Photographed a weak fog-bow last Tuesday (9th Sept) here in Tiverton at around 8:30 in the morning. It was coloured at the western end (weakly red + blue), but this is not evident on the photograph. The fog bow was in stratus cloud (lifted fog) to my west.

[Simon Culling]

Tuesday (15th September) was even warmer in the south east of the UK with a maximum of 31.3°C at Frittenden (Kent), but a change in airmass occurred on Wednesday (temperature still reached 27°C at Bournemouth on this day) with much cooler air spreading south - a dry and almost cloudless cold front delivered this change. The last two days have remained very sunny over much of England + Wales but with a stiff NE breeze to temper the heat - it has been a few degrees cooler, but pleasant nonetheless.

Looking forward, there is a big change in the weather coming next week as an upper trough becomes established to our west and the high pressures loosen their grip on UK weather. It will turn much more unsettled from Tues/Weds next week, but the biggest change will be to the temperature and it will become quite cold for late September, especially by day. Autumn looks like it will arrive with a vengeance.

The CET for September was 15.6°C (+1.6°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 13mm up to the 16th which is just 17% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The last two days have been blue dome days here in Tiverton with wall to wall sunshine and today the temperature reached 25°C. This has also been the case over most of England + Wales (after the clearance of early fog in some places) with highs of 25.6°C at Kew Gardens on Sunday and 26.0°C at RNAS Yeovilton today.

We will have one more fine day here in the south tomorrow (Tues 22nd Sept), but the unsettled weather has already arrived in the far NW and will spread to all of the UK over the next day or so. Hurricane Teddy is drawing a lot of warm air northwards near to the USA and this will cause strong ridging in the middle of the Atlantic which in turn will result in a northerly flow into Western Europe in the next few days. It will be a shock to the system for quite a few countries - we will see the first of the autumn snows on the Scottish Mountains here in the UK and daytime maximums will be down to the low teens. This tweet gives a few maps to explain this:

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1307793903534452737

[Simon Culling]

It has turned a lot colder and unsettled in the last few days with periods of rain or showers for all parts of the UK. Here in Tiverton, yesterday (Thurs 24th Sept) was a cold day with frequent showers, a couple of which had hail (up to 6mm) in them, and a maximum of just 14°C which was quite a shock to the system. Today, it is lovely and sunny, but still feels chilly in a brisk north westerly wind and the high of 15°C has now passed. The weekend will be dry with plenty of sunshine and slightly warmer during the day, but with chilly nights with a touch of ground frost in more rural areas. The unsettled weather returns next week with rain or showers for all and not much warmer. Might have to turn the heating on.

Two weather events of note in the last few days - a temperature of -5.0°C was recorded at Altnaharra in the NW Highlands on Thursday morning and this is the lowest September temperature for the UK since 1997. The record for the month is only -6.7°C at Dalwhinnie on 26/9/1942.

Secondly, today (Fri 25th Sept) it has been very wet and windy in the far east of the UK and especially in East Anglia. There is a deep low (985mb) in the southern North Sea and this is giving wind gusts over 60mph to the east coast and plenty of rain. Some sites in Norfolk have already seen over 50mm of rain today and this is roughly equivalent to the average amount for this area for the whole of September.

The CET for September was 15.2°C (+1.4°C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 27mm up to the 23rd which is 34% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The wet and windy weather took until the end of last weekend to finally clear from the far east of the UK and not before a few places recorded 90-100m of rain from this system. 48 hour totals of this magnitude are pretty rare in East Anglia. The wind blew a northerly gales for over two days on the Norfolk coast and deposited a lot of sand in a number of coastal villages. This BBC articles gives a flavour from the village of Walcott:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-54324144

Since last weekend the weather has been cool and rather changeable with rain or showers for most and this theme certainly looks like continuing for some time. A series of deep depressions will form near to the south of the UK into the coming week with a lot of rain (and wind) in the forecast for the southern half of the UK. France has named the first system 'Alex' and they could see some very stormy weather from Friday onwards. Some of the models are suggesting 50-100mm of rain in the next few days for much of southern Britain and up to 150mm in some places. Let's hope that is just model exuberance.

[Simon Culling]

We have had a very wet few days here in the UK with most places seeing 25-50mm of rain and some areas well in excess of this. Thankfully we missed the worst of the winds from Storm Alex as it was just to the south of the UK, but the very exposed French site at Le Talut (SW Brittany) recorded a gust to 101kts (116mph) late on Thursday evening - there are some suggestions of a short-lived 'sting jet' being associated with this gust.

Not too many reports of flooding so far, but the dry September has meant river levels are low and the ground is dry.

The rain continues today (Sunday 4th Oct) in many parts of the UK, but we should dry out a bit into the new week before more stormy weather arrives after mid-week. This is just the weather we need to help encourage COVID-19.

The final CET figure for September was 13.9°C (+0.3°C) and the final EWR was 54mm which is 69% of the monthly average. The Met Office summary for the month can be found in the link below. It was a little warmer and sunnier than average, but overall it was a dry month. However, the north eastern half of east Anglia were much wetter than normal.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/10/0 ... september/

[Simon Culling]

The weather has improved a bit during this week, but it is still on the cool side and rather unsettled, although a ridge of high pressure should gives us a better weekend albeit still below average temperature wise. The longer range forecast (now available from ECMWF) suggests the cool and unsettled weather will continue through the rest of October and into November. This fits with a developing La Nina generally giving western Europe colder winters (especially the first half) than normal.

The CET for October was 11.7°C (-0.4°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 79mm up to the 7th, which is 91% of the monthly average of 89mm. This shows just how wet the first few days were.

[Simon Culling]

It has been mostly dry for the last few days but it remains on the cool side for the time of year and rather cloudy. With high pressure to our north, we are drawing a north easterly flow off Scandinavia, hence it is rather cool. This pattern will persist into the weekend, but low pressure will develop to our SW by early next week and this will dominate the weather next week. This set-up will bring very warm weather to more eastern parts of Europe, but far less so for more western parts. It will temporarily be a little milder, but the cool and increasingly wet theme seems to dominate in the models into early November.

The Met Office report that Saturday 3rd October 2020 was the wettest day on record averaged over the UK as a whole since daily records have been kept (1891) with a national figure of 31.7mm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54561601

The CET for October was 10.8°C (-0.6°C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 97mm up to the 14th, which is 111% of the average.

[Simon Culling]

We did manage some milder weather last week but at the expense of more rain or showers at times - October is shaping up to be a wet month. The temperature did reach 19.0°C at Kew Gardens (London) on Tuesday (20th Oct) but it has since turned cooler. The very unsettled theme has also returned with plenty of rain about and this is reflected in the EWR (see below).

Saturday (yesterday) was very unsettled with a deep low (953mb) to the west of Scotland and bands of heavy rain moving east across the UK and this will add to the already high rainfall totals - some sites have already had double the monthly average. The movement of ex Hurricane Epsilon will be interesting this week and the models are having fun as to how it transforms to an extra-tropical depression. Initially some had it deepening to 912mb to the south of Iceland in the middle of the coming week, but this has been scaled back to more like 940mb. It looks like it will stay in the middle of the Atlantic and push a series of fronts and subsidiary lows our way - whatever happens it is going to be another wet and cool week. Some tentative signs of something more settled and milder as we go towards and into November.

The CET for October was 10.8°C (-0.2°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 117mm also up to the 23rd, which is 134% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Cool and showery best describes the weather of the last few days here in the UK, although sunshine has been at a premium. it has turned milder in the last couple of days and the minimum last night here in Tiverton was 14°C - that will help keep the heating bills down.

The CET for October was 10.6°C (on average) up to the 29th and the EWR was 145mm up to the 28th which is 166% of the monthly average.

We have a very stormy weekend coming up as the first named storm of the winter (Aiden) is approaching the UK today (Friday 30th Oct). This will bring wet and windy weather to all of the UK and another system following behind, which has the remnants of Hurricane Zeta within its circulation, will see a repeat on Sun/Mon. After that, we will see a significant build of pressure over the UK and the rest of next week looks settled and dry. We should see some sunshine, but that will lead to frosty nights as the days are getting much shorter now - it is dark by not much after 5pm.

[Simon Culling]

It was indeed a very blustery and wet weekend with wind gusts just over 80mph on the west coasts of Eire + Scotland on both Saturday and Sunday. Here in Tiverton it was windy throughout, although the highest gust in the town was about 40mph. We missed the worst of the rain, but it has been mostly cloudy and rather mild. Yesterday evening (Sunday) it was still 17°C at midnight and this compares to a daily average maximum here of around 11°C for the month - a cold front has since passed through and it is only 12°C late morning on Monday. We often get these temperature anomalies and contrasts in winter as different air masses cross the country.

After some more rain tomorrow, a big high pressure system (around 1040mb) will build from the SW and be over the UK later in the week and this will settle the weather down and gives us some sunshine at last. However, calm conditions after all this wet weather may well lead to fog forming that might not clear during the day. it will be quite a bit cooler and there will be a nip of frost on some mornings. It looks like the high will continue north allowing a little rain to return by next weekend.

[Simon Culling]

The high pressure duly arrived for the middle of last week and reached just over 1040mb as it crossed Eire. This gave us a quiet middle and end to last week with fog and frost at night. It was a little cooler by day, but still only around average temperatures for the time of the year. Over the weekend we have seen slightly more unsettled weather with a few outbreaks of rain and/or showers and it has returned to being very mild again.

As I have mentioned, it has been generally very mild for the last couple of weeks and some decent temperatures have been recorded this weekend, with a high of 18.9°C at Porthmadog (NW Wales) on Saturday (7th Nov) - a SE wind gave it fohn conditions from the north Wales mountains. Looking forward, the coming week will continue the mild theme with a little rain at times - and sunshine again looks to be at a premium.

The CET for November was 8.6°C (+0.8°C) up to the 8th, and the EWR was 16mm up to the 7th, which is 17% of the monthly average of 92mm.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for October was 10.5°C, which is -0.1°C below the average. This is only the second month in 2020 to finish with a below average temperature. The final EWR for October was 164mm which is 188% of the monthly average.

The Met Office have produced a good summary of the October weather on their blog, and apparently, it was the fifth wettest October over the UK in the rainfall series dating back to 1862. It was particularly wet in central southern England + the London area.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/11/0 ... ince-1862/

It has remained on the mild side in the last few days with rain or showers at times and this pattern looks set to continue into next week with a particularly wet and windy weekend to come. No signs of anything cold or wintry, yet.

The CET for November was 9.5°C (+1.9°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 27mm up to the 11th, which is 29% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The mild weather has continued with further rain or showers at times and it has been rather breezy. A small feature ran east up the English Channel yesterday (Sunday 15th Nov) giving some heavy and blustery rain + hail showers to coastal regions along with a few thunderstorms - although the worst of the lightning was mostly over the sea. It produced some strong wind gust, with 92mph being recorded at the Needles Old Battery on the Isle of Wight and 78mph at Portland Harbour, on the Dorset coast.

Tomorrow will be another mild day and we could see 16/17°C reached if the cloud breaks as expected - especially in places with shelter from the SW breeze. After that, it looks to turn cooler from Wednesday evening, but nothing worthy of note can be seen in the models. My prediction of a cold start to the winter (i.e. November + December) looks to have gone Pete Tong in the first 2 weeks!

The CET for November was 9.7°C (+2.4°C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 44mm up to the 14th, which is 48% of the monthly average,

[Simon Culling]

The rather mild and boring weather has continued for the last week with some rain at times here in Tiverton, but generally just cloudy and damp sums it up. Just about the only excitement weather wise has been waking up to fog yesterday (Mon 23rd Nov) morning.

The forecast for the next 5-7 days has the weather turning cooler and drier after more rain overnight tonight and some much cooler nights to come with frost and fog becoming a problem by the end of the working week. High pressure will be over the UK by Friday and although it will then drift into the continent, a flow from the high will be strong enough to keep the Atlantic systems at bay into next week.

The CET for November was 9.4°C (+2.6°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 58mm up to the 22nd which is 63% of the monthly average. It looks like the month will finish up being drier and milder than average.

[Simon Culling]

Following the rain on Wednesday, it has turned cooler and drier with the usual autumn problems of fog + frost appearing at night. The lowest temperature of the autumn so far was recorded on Sunday (Nov 29th) morning with minimum values of -6.1°C at Aboyne in Aberdeenshire and -5.8°C at Kinbrace in Sutherland. We had a pretty frost here in Tiverton on Friday morning and the maximum was just 6°C that day as cloud spread over at lunchtime. The milder weather returned over the weekend to more southern and western parts of England + Wales with a maximum of 13.5°C today at Plymouth. A low level inversion meant the stratus and fog cleared from the high ground of the SW with places like Exmoor and Dartmoor being sunny + mild (max 12.5°C at Okehampton at 408m amsl on Dartmoor in the sunshine) and the valleys keeping the cloudy and misty weather - here in Tiverton (at 75m amsl) it was misty/foggy all day with a maximum of just 8°C. The attached midday sounding from Camborne (far SW of England) shows the low level inversion very well.

The models have milder weather returning for a while early in the coming week, but then a stronger push of colder air will arrive from the NW and this regime is expected to persist into the subsequent week with a disrupting trough to the W/SW of the UK maintaining the colder feed of air. We might see the first snow of the winter in more northern parts by the end of the coming week.

[Simon Culling]

The Met Office have provided a good summary of the weather for November on their blog - a mild and relatively dry month overall. It was also a little duller than normal.

It was the sixth warmest November in the extended full temperature series now going back to 1884. In the longer CET series (back to 1659) it was the joint 14th warmest.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/12/0 ... ull-month/

Overall, the Autumn was a little milder and a little wetter than average.