NZ Weather Forum

Very brief light hail shower here about 30 mins ago.

The Ashburton to Birdlings Flat storm corridor will be the place to go. Its like there's a railway in the sky that the storms are glued to.

GFS not interested in any moisture about Christchurch on Tuesday now, so once again it seems EC was the better of the two models. Still looking cold enough for the snow to near sea level for this part of the woods, however may not see more than a snow flake hitting the ground!

Heavy snow warning issued.Temp 2.9C showers of graupel

Cantab03 wrote: ↑Sun 27/09/2020 21:52 GFS not interested in any moisture about Christchurch on Tuesday now, so once again it seems EC was the better of the two models. Still looking cold enough for the snow to near sea level for this part of the woods, however may not see more than a snow flake hitting the ground!

Looks like the snow making will come from a layer of nimbostratus cloud in the middle of the atmopshere tomorrow over the South Island.

Both Manapouri and Queenstown airport obs showing light snow falling.

Thunderstorms occurring over Invercargill and Foveaux Strait

Snowing settling at Thornbur.y Altitude 19 meters

GFS going more SW than SSW now and taking the coldest upper air offshore by tomorrow, minimum around -8C 850mb so it looks to be lining up more with the EC. Still brings -37C 500mb air over Chch today so that gust front should have some extra, ahem, gusto to it.

Chris W wrote: ↑Mon 28/09/2020 06:46 GFS going more SW than SSW now and taking the coldest upper air offshore by tomorrow, minimum around -8C 850mb so it looks to be lining up more with the EC. Still brings -37C 500mb air over Chch today so that gust front should have some extra, ahem, gusto to it.

Yeah definitely more SW for Canterbury for Tuesday, like you say its cold but next to no moisture.

Today is the day the plains and coast will get any excitement. Moderare risk of thunderstorms/ hail this afternoon for me. And as mentioned last night any storms that do develop will have 15-20mm hail with such strong forcing upper jet.
The NW will be pretty strong today though so hopefully it doesn't push it all off shore.

Managed to pick up 16mm of spillover rainfall so far from this event, more this afternoon.

Just Checking in for the event.
Blue dome day here at the moment, brisk cold NW wind.

Small flurries now in Dunedin (I’m at 200m above sea level). Nothing much but shows that there is cold in the air. Glad I work from home Could be an interesting day

We stayed pretty dry overnight, usually the case in a westerly because of the mountains. Started snowing lightly half an hour ago

High Cloud starting to build from the East and South from here looking towards Banks Peninsular.
Still gusty North Westerly averaging 40 km/h

Surface and upper low now fully aligned through the troposphere south of Campbell Island on the 9am water vapour image. Mid 930 hPa’s at the surface with the polar jet launching from the Antarctic continent on the western flank of the upper low this morning. The beast is in full flight. Macquarie Island now hovering between -5 and -6c, remarkable sea level temps post equinox for this latitude.

Front looks to be racing up the island which is normally a good sign of a gust front/southerly buster, looks like it reaches Chch in about an hour or two.

Some sharp gusts driving to Amberley this morning, especially just south of town.

My queenstown mate shared a video just now outside his kitchen window, absolutely dumping down with snow there

had some heavy falls yesterday morning 20mm in totals. nice. best rain this month.

Chris W wrote: ↑Mon 28/09/2020 09:30 Front looks to be racing up the island which is normally a good sign of a gust front/southerly buster, looks like it reaches Chch in about an hour or two.

SW change looks to arrive mid- late afternoon. 3 30-4ish.
Good timing if we would get some sort of heating going for instability

QT a while ago.

In Wanaka for the week and it is absolutely heaving down - so beautiful out there!!

this wasnt much of a storm producer for auckland unfortunately but still had some nice rain.

My bad then Mike, guess it's just spillover high cloud coming up this morning. Could spoil heating though. I had thought the change was lunchtime/early afternoon.

Chris W wrote: ↑Mon 28/09/2020 10:10 My bad then Mike, guess it's just spillover high cloud coming up this morning. Could spoil heating though. I had thought the change was lunchtime/early afternoon.

Unless it races up early im reading it as 3 30ish-4 hopefully that high cloud stays away, its meant to be pretty clear