NZ Weather Forum

Looks like we start off with a few days of westerlies, then around the 5th/6th there are signs of a southerly but also some subtropical activity as a monsoon trough looks to be setting up. Polar vortex vs La Nina?

and a big evil anticyclone to keep things dry and boring and droughty for the north island esp auckland sigh

tornado wrote: ↑Wed 30/09/2020 11:54 and a big evil anticyclone to keep things dry and boring and droughty for the north island esp auckland sigh

The ridge looks to be about what we expect in October, stable, dry with possible low clouds and SW breezes.

2 cents worth.

A complex jigsaw is slowly coming together. GFS is starting to hint the that the atmospheric forcing changes required for La Nina to affect NZ will start to get under way in 10 days heading towards the Maritime continent and Western Pacific, with subsidence in the Eastern pacific. This climatic process is a slow mover but it's the first sign on a major shift in the atmosphere. Once a favourable MJO lines up, this will pop with the increasing tropical easterlies.

Light frosting this morning, but a fine and mild day eventuated. Today's maximum was 18.6C.

Wow, following a dry September, I see there's no rain at all in the 10 day outlook. Even at the end of the outlook there's still a massive high parked over NZ. Ground is gonna be getting pretty dry by mid October

Fox

David wrote: ↑Fri 02/10/2020 08:09 Wow, following a dry September, I see there's no rain at all in the 10 day outlook. Even at the end of the outlook there's still a massive high parked over NZ. Ground is gonna be getting pretty dry by mid October

october is usually a dry month though. december is usually unsettled. november too. la nina should get us some rain over jan/feb

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Fri 02/10/2020 09:44 Fox 20201002_094120.jpg

If you have time do the walk up to Lake Gault. It goes up the hill from Lake Matheson and its a stunning "new" addition to the areas walks

i just saw metservice article from yesterday say a high pressure front. that does not make sense

Up at the DOC campsite at Mt Cook, wind is cranking and the rain is setting in. Awesome stuff.

tornado wrote: ↑Fri 02/10/2020 11:49 i just saw metservice article from yesterday say a high pressure front. that does not make sense

Where was this?

Dunedin

Fine and rather mild day here from this morning where it got to 22.7C from a zero minimum overnight.
Some lenticular forms to the west.

Red sky this morning

Temp. currently 14.9°C and rising;
Fresh NW breeze.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 02/10/2020 17:35

tornado wrote: ↑Fri 02/10/2020 11:49 i just saw metservice article from yesterday say a high pressure front. that does not make sense

Where was this?

On newshub

High pressure front? Doesn't sound logical to me...

A balmy 25 degrees here in downtown Christchurch. Expecting more of the same over the next couple of days. We sure need a decent rain event soon!

tornado wrote: ↑Fri 02/10/2020 11:49 i just saw metservice article from yesterday say a high pressure front. that does not make sense

The closest I can find are the words:
"It is expected to be another cold night today with frost, as current front passes east and high pressure moves in".

Originally based on an RNZ interview with NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll on Wednesday morning, that same line and story was repeated by several news outlets throughout the day, including Newshub, TVNZ, and the ODT…

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zeal ... sland.html

Violent winds and sideways rain all through last night at Aoraki Mt Cook. My tent was destroyed, we bailed into the shelter which was incredibly noisy in the wind costing us most of the night's sleep, and the half marathon was called off this morning for the first time in 11 years because they couldn't keep the road signage upright and it was going to be brutal running back up the road. Great trip!

Chris W wrote: ↑Sat 03/10/2020 19:05 Violent winds and sideways rain all through last night at Aoraki Mt Cook. My tent was destroyed, we bailed into the shelter which was incredibly noisy in the wind, and the half marathon was called off this morning for the first time in 11 years because they couldn't keep the road signage upright and it was going to be brutal running back up the road. Great trip!

Bugger...great event which we were involved in a few years ago!

Yep, the organiser was totally gutted but we gave him and team a full round of applause and still had a great time! Comfortably the strongest winds I've experienced since the March 2014 windstorm in Chch, don't know how the tent didn't totally blow away.

Chris W wrote: ↑Sat 03/10/2020 19:11 Yep, the organiser was totally gutted but we gave him and team a full round of applause and still had a great time! Comfortably the strongest winds I've experienced since the March 2014 windstorm in Chch, don't know how the tent didn't totally blow away.

Might of been that high pressure front moving through?

Nice warm temperatures in Dunedin currently

Warm day here with today's maximum being 24.7C.
Some scattered high cloud.
Variant wind flow with any breezes coming from the SW direction, otherwise calm.