General October Weather

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TonyT
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 15:01 Still no rain. 2mm month to date. Local farmers are telling me they need to think back to the 1960s for a year this dry. Over 50 years
Their memories are short.

YTD for Christchurch airport 412mm.

Jan to Oct 2015 398mm
Jan to Oct 2007 424mm
Jan to Oct 2005 362mm
Jan to Oct 2003 411mm
Jan to OCt 2001 334mm
Razor
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Razor »

TonyT wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 23:01
Razor wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 15:01 Still no rain. 2mm month to date. Local farmers are telling me they need to think back to the 1960s for a year this dry. Over 50 years
Their memories are short.

YTD for Christchurch airport 412mm.

Jan to Oct 2015 398mm
Jan to Oct 2007 424mm
Jan to Oct 2005 362mm
Jan to Oct 2003 411mm
Jan to OCt 2001 334mm
Sorry Tony but Chch Aero is not Halswell or the peninsula. 253mm YTD for us in Halswell. Many Chch and Peninsula sites are also under 300mm
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by melja »

I'm up to 31mm with this front in Rangiora, been very steady all night.

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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Nev »

TonyT wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 23:01
Razor wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 15:01 Still no rain. 2mm month to date. Local farmers are telling me they need to think back to the 1960s for a year this dry. Over 50 years
Their memories are short.

YTD for Christchurch airport 412mm.

Hmm… I only get 368mm YTD to 11pm last night for Chch Aero?

Here's a few other 2020 rainfalls to 9am yesterday (i.e. not counting last night's rainfall):

MetService & NIWA 2020 YTD Rainfall (mm) to 9am on Oct 26th
362 … Chch Aero
282 … Riccarton
205 … Bromley
275 … Lincoln
235 … Lyttelton
913 … Cooptown

I think Chch's driest full-year on record by far would have to be 1988 with 306mm at Chch Aero and 293mm at Chch Gardens.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

The airport has seen greater falls than the city for a while this year, and at home it has barely rained since winter. Last night however it seems to have rained right through, which is very welcome.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

lots of rain north canty/Kaikoura currently I see
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Awhituobs wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 07:17 lots of rain north canty/Kaikoura currently I see
Yes, great rain, turning out to be amazing spring, up to 18mm so far.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Icon and Gem align at 180 hours. Access G and the Sth Korean models align 24 hours later. Upper low cuts off from an upper trough over the Northern Tasman. One to watch for the November thread.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by spwill »

A slow moving rainy tropical low will be needed for Auckland gardens in November with the ban on outdoor hose use continuing.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Nev wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 06:34
TonyT wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 23:01

Their memories are short.

YTD for Christchurch airport 412mm.

Hmm… I only get 368mm YTD to 11pm last night for Chch Aero?

Here's a few other 2020 rainfalls to 9am yesterday (i.e. not counting last night's rainfall):

MetService & NIWA 2020 YTD Rainfall (mm) to 9am on Oct 26th
362 … Chch Aero
282 … Riccarton
205 … Bromley
275 … Lincoln
235 … Lyttelton
913 … Cooptown

I think Chch's driest full-year on record by far would have to be 1988 with 306mm at Chch Aero and 293mm at Chch Gardens.
Thanks Nev- that certainly corroborates with the discussions I've been having with locals - farmers and residents, not to mention what we are experiencing on the ground. Cooptown (little River) would be a typo at 913 though :)

12 wonderful mm's for us overnight, thats something to celebrate. Its been so long since we had double figures in one fall that I can't remember when it was, June or July I think! Now for some sort of followup in the coming weeks
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Nev wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 06:34
TonyT wrote: Mon 26/10/2020 23:01

Their memories are short.

YTD for Christchurch airport 412mm.

Hmm… I only get 368mm YTD to 11pm last night for Chch Aero?

Here's a few other 2020 rainfalls to 9am yesterday (i.e. not counting last night's rainfall):

MetService & NIWA 2020 YTD Rainfall (mm) to 9am on Oct 26th
362 … Chch Aero
282 … Riccarton
205 … Bromley
275 … Lincoln
235 … Lyttelton
913 … Cooptown

I think Chch's driest full-year on record by far would have to be 1988 with 306mm at Chch Aero and 293mm at Chch Gardens.
Sorry, yes, I was summing the previous year's figures, you are right its 368mm YTD for 2020 (plus whatever fell in the last 24 hours). The downside of doing those calculations late at night!

My point still stands though, as 2005 was 362mm, 2001 334mm for the same period. You don't need to go back to the 1960s to find a comparable period.

Obviously some other sites are lower than Chch Aero, but you would need to see how they fared in past years also. Dry spells are funny things - quite small, localised areas can be very much drier than surrounding areas, but it all evens out in the end. North Canterbury was in exactly that position about 5 years ago. Some tiny pockets got hardly any rain for 2 years, despite the surrounding region being droughty for a shorter time, and the broader Cantery region looking quite green.

Having said that, the coastal area from central Chch through to the coast but not including the Peninsula is probably the driest part of Canterbury, long term.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Meanwhile NIWA are pointing to a +3C marine heatwave off the Canterbury coast right now. So that's a harbinger for warm temperatures.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

water temperatures are stupidly warm here for the time of year
like at 17c already
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris W wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 11:09 Meanwhile NIWA are pointing to a +3C marine heatwave off the Canterbury coast right now. So that's a harbinger for warm temperatures.
And heavier rainfall.

Actually, there is a small feedback loop locally where warmer temperatures immediately offshore Canterbury lead to stronger northeast breezes which in turn can make the land area cooler. So warmer temperatures are not locked in, right on the coast.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Razor »

TonyT wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 11:08
Nev wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 06:34

Hmm… I only get 368mm YTD to 11pm last night for Chch Aero?

Here's a few other 2020 rainfalls to 9am yesterday (i.e. not counting last night's rainfall):

MetService & NIWA 2020 YTD Rainfall (mm) to 9am on Oct 26th
362 … Chch Aero
282 … Riccarton
205 … Bromley
275 … Lincoln
235 … Lyttelton
913 … Cooptown

I think Chch's driest full-year on record by far would have to be 1988 with 306mm at Chch Aero and 293mm at Chch Gardens.
Sorry, yes, I was summing the previous year's figures, you are right its 368mm YTD for 2020 (plus whatever fell in the last 24 hours). The downside of doing those calculations late at night!

My point still stands though, as 2005 was 362mm, 2001 334mm for the same period. You don't need to go back to the 1960s to find a comparable period.

Obviously some other sites are lower than Chch Aero, but you would need to see how they fared in past years also. Dry spells are funny things - quite small, localised areas can be very much drier than surrounding areas, but it all evens out in the end. North Canterbury was in exactly that position about 5 years ago. Some tiny pockets got hardly any rain for 2 years, despite the surrounding region being droughty for a shorter time, and the broader Cantery region looking quite green.

Having said that, the coastal area from central Chch through to the coast but not including the Peninsula is probably the driest part of Canterbury, long term.
ChCh Aero is seemingly a significant anomaly in the whole territorial boundary of ChCh City and BP this year- many of the rain events have focus on areas to the north of town this year (Airport is much closer to there of course) A number of good rain events have completely bypassed most of the city in general, as evidenced in the figures in Nev's post. I'd love to know the trends for those over the years, certainly when looking at Jeff Northcotts site in Hoon Hay for eg (which is close to us) he is approaching a 300mm deficit in regard to his his 10 year average. A massive drop off.

I stand by the fact that its an incredibly and now seriously dry year for a lot of people here and that many sites are under 300mm YTD within the boundaries of Christchurch City Council (includes the Peninsula). In my view I'd like to find those longer term stats (but don't really know where to look quickly) and I can genuinely believe the situation is much more serious and widespread than the ChCh Aero figures will lend us to believe
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

TonyT wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 12:04
Chris W wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 11:09 Meanwhile NIWA are pointing to a +3C marine heatwave off the Canterbury coast right now. So that's a harbinger for warm temperatures.
And heavier rainfall.

Actually, there is a small feedback loop locally where warmer temperatures immediately offshore Canterbury lead to stronger northeast breezes which in turn can make the land area cooler. So warmer temperatures are not locked in, right on the coast.
Would it not lower the contrast between the temperature of the land and immediate ocean, lowering the pressure gradient and weakening the wind? So less wind chill from the easterly.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris W wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 12:54
TonyT wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 12:04

And heavier rainfall.

Actually, there is a small feedback loop locally where warmer temperatures immediately offshore Canterbury lead to stronger northeast breezes which in turn can make the land area cooler. So warmer temperatures are not locked in, right on the coast.
Would it not lower the contrast between the temperature of the land and immediate ocean, lowering the pressure gradient and weakening the wind? So less wind chill from the easterly.
Yes. But how often do you find the NE has started in the morning with the land temperature colder than the ocean temperature? Enough to tell us there is more going on. Many days the Canterbury nor'easter is not a true sea breeze, so its presence and development is not hugely affected by land/sea temperature contrasts. (Some days it is). There is a complex feedback cocktail of various factors in there, none easy to isolate on their own.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 12:20
ChCh Aero is seemingly a significant anomaly in the whole territorial boundary of ChCh City and BP this year- many of the rain events have focus on areas to the north of town this year (Airport is much closer to there of course) A number of good rain events have completely bypassed most of the city in general, as evidenced in the figures in Nev's post. I'd love to know the trends for those over the years, certainly when looking at Jeff Northcotts site in Hoon Hay for eg (which is close to us) he is approaching a 300mm deficit in regard to his his 10 year average. A massive drop off.

I stand by the fact that its an incredibly and now seriously dry year for a lot of people here and that many sites are under 300mm YTD within the boundaries of Christchurch City Council (includes the Peninsula). In my view I'd like to find those longer term stats (but don't really know where to look quickly) and I can genuinely believe the situation is much more serious and widespread than the ChCh Aero figures will lend us to believe
Lincoln Jan to Oct
2020 275+last nights
2001 313mm
2005 333mm
2015 359mm

Chch Gardens Jan to Oct
2020 ??
2001 313mm
2015 408mm

Lytelton record on Cliflo is incomplete, Bromley and Riccarton records too short to be useful.

The infamous 1988 Chch Aero Jan to Oct was 253mm, Chch Gardens 247mm.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

TonyT wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 13:28
Chris W wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 12:54

Would it not lower the contrast between the temperature of the land and immediate ocean, lowering the pressure gradient and weakening the wind? So less wind chill from the easterly.
Yes. But how often do you find the NE has started in the morning with the land temperature colder than the ocean temperature? Enough to tell us there is more going on. Many days the Canterbury nor'easter is not a true sea breeze, so its presence and development is not hugely affected by land/sea temperature contrasts. (Some days it is). There is a complex feedback cocktail of various factors in there, none easy to isolate on their own.
I'd say I mostly peg it for starting around 1-2pm after the thermal gradient at the surface has developed via heating, or at least it intensifies after that, but I've never written that down. So I can't really contest what you've said and it's quite interesting to consider whatever else could be involved :).
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris W wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 13:45
TonyT wrote: Tue 27/10/2020 13:28

Yes. But how often do you find the NE has started in the morning with the land temperature colder than the ocean temperature? Enough to tell us there is more going on. Many days the Canterbury nor'easter is not a true sea breeze, so its presence and development is not hugely affected by land/sea temperature contrasts. (Some days it is). There is a complex feedback cocktail of various factors in there, none easy to isolate on their own.
I'd say I mostly peg it for starting around 1-2pm after the thermal gradient at the surface has developed via heating, or at least it intensifies after that, but I've never written that down. So I can't really contest what you've said and it's quite interesting to consider whatever else could be involved :).
Geez, where do you live? Most summer days the NE is starting by 9am in Christchurch and for most of the eastern Plains. Ian McKendry wrote a phD thesis on it years ago and I helped with the field research. Bottom line is, most of the time its not a true sea breeze, its a trough induced wind which runs down the east coast of the SI as outwash from Cook Strait. But it does have a sea breeze component, which varies from day to day in how great a contribution it makes. The interesting thing is often the NE starts inland and works its way towards the coast - ie its present at Darfield or West Melton before it arrives in Christchurch or Rangiora.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Fair enough, maybe I'm so used to it that I don't really notice it until it fully cranks in the afternoon - that's the only time for me that it's a royal pain in the a$$! That's been wherever I've lived, which has been a few places. Hard to tell in Lyttelton because we get a degree of shelter from the sea breeze component.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Bottom line is, most of the time its not a true sea breeze, its a trough induced wind which runs down the east coast of the SI as outwash from Cook Strait.
yes, thats how I have understood it
and then the port hills helps to funnel it more so that places like Lincoln and South Bridge area its even worse, goes well into the evening
just check the gum trees in that area, all with a big NE lean
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Having lived a short time right at the base of the Porthills in Cashmare I found the NE would blow all night, go north towards the city and there would be no wind.
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I see Ricky has made it to 25c today in Auckland
and Jamie has made it to 23c
These are December temperatures
22c we made it to here...another way above average temperature
(dew point is 16C)
we have been running 3c above average for the last week
https://www.weather-display.com/windy/g ... taout.html
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Re: General October Weather

Unread post by Richard »

In total we picked up 21.6mm of rain from the overnight rain.
Locked