Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 18:36
I thought I would beat Richard on this possible event, after our discussion today. 
Lets see what happens
Lets see what happens
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk 11th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 18:37
If storms do develop down there tomorrow then you lucky buggers.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 19:12
See what happens John.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 19:39
we could do a chaser meet up John
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 20:36
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 20:48
A moderate risk has been added for the foothills of Canterbury
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Sun 11/10/2020 21:06
It doesnt look as favourable as it did couple days ago but still a risk there. I think it will definitely be inland foothills with a band of messy showers spreading to the coast later. Whether we get any thunder or not time will tell. Definitely a risk but not a big one, i think it will just depend how strong the convergence is and how much heating can get going throughout the day.
Wednesday looks interesting aswel, so thats another day to keep watch on
Wednesday looks interesting aswel, so thats another day to keep watch on
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 08:57
This mornings thunderstorm risk from the Met Service
A trough in the upper atmosphere is expected to move over the South Island this afternoon and evening. This should bring showers, some heavy with possible hail and a low risk of thunderstorms, to Westland, Buller, Nelson, Marlborough, Canterbury and northern Otago, as indicated on the chart. Within this area, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about the Canterbury foothills, North Canterbury, and also the ranges of Marlborough, Nelson and Buller during this afternoon and evening. If these thunderstorms occur they may be slow moving in nature, with localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 5 to 15mm in diameter possible. Also, there is a very low risk that hail accumulations may become significant.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 09:25
Haven't seen any sign of a severe risk, the upper air isn't that cold and little shear but hopefully some inland isolated storms for folks to enjoy. Was thinking Wednesday also looks interesting but haven't really looked at the numbers.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 10:02
Seems like a pretty good accurate chart up there richard from what i see to
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 10:03
Certainly got a trough there to encourage afternoon convection along the inland surface boundary. Looks like the type of set up that will produce a lot of cloud and precip as well so I am guessing messy from a chase point of view.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 10:13
Absolutely agree. Messy set up later on. Rain on the
Coastal plains later. Hard to chase any but will see how things go. Certainly didnt think it warranted taking the day off from work to chase. Ill save that for a big severe day
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 12:27
First signs of development now happening inland South Canterbury and to the south
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 13:13
I am in Geraldine. Come find me at the country cafe John
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 13:53
Met up John .showers developing inland from here:)
.showers developing inland from here:)Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 14:06
Looking good here to, developing to my east and to the south
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 14:29
Been hot with little wind in Amberley up until about half an hour ago with cloud developing and wind picking up, assume that's the southeasterly change.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 14:57
blitz picking up stikses already down there and some small cells are forming.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 15:02
These cells will become embedded in rain. Its only problem with these types of set ups.
Cant beat the severe days where the set up is cold upper trough, and NE winds! Supercells
Cant beat the severe days where the set up is cold upper trough, and NE winds! Supercells
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 15:21
Was a NW wind up to 2.30 then suddenly a SE came through which will help storm development. Looking very dark to my north where most of the storms come from here.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 16:01
All over bar the shouting down here, sadly, with just layers of boring Sc around 
however it was good for a catch up with Brian today
however it was good for a catch up with Brian today Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 16:30
CHCH
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 16:45
Having just driven home from lewis pass, I reckon somewhere inland of Chch is getting hammered by a significant cell right now that is being energized by that strong easterly. There's a tail of clouds feeding it from Chch to inland, looked very spectacular from the motorway. Sorry no pics, I was driving
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 17:10
Yes, there have been a couple of lightning strikes up that way, but nothing much with this event to get excited about, a real fizzer down here..
Roll on Wednesday and possibly this WE.
Roll on Wednesday and possibly this WE.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury
Posted: Mon 12/10/2020 17:30
There was reports of lightning around Hanmer also, other than that nothing to exciting.