Thunderstorm Risk 12th Oct for Canterbury

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I thought I would beat Richard on this possible event, after our discussion today.
Lets see what happens

[tornado]

If storms do develop down there tomorrow then you lucky buggers.

[Richard]

See what happens John.

[Awhituobs]

we could do a chaser meet up John

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

we could do a chaser meet up John

why not? I'll PM you on this.

[Richard]

A moderate risk has been added for the foothills of Canterbury

[mikestormchaser]

It doesnt look as favourable as it did couple days ago but still a risk there. I think it will definitely be inland foothills with a band of messy showers spreading to the coast later. Whether we get any thunder or not time will tell. Definitely a risk but not a big one, i think it will just depend how strong the convergence is and how much heating can get going throughout the day.

Wednesday looks interesting aswel, so thats another day to keep watch on

[Richard]

This mornings thunderstorm risk from the Met Service

A trough in the upper atmosphere is expected to move over the South Island this afternoon and evening. This should bring showers, some heavy with possible hail and a low risk of thunderstorms, to Westland, Buller, Nelson, Marlborough, Canterbury and northern Otago, as indicated on the chart. Within this area, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about the Canterbury foothills, North Canterbury, and also the ranges of Marlborough, Nelson and Buller during this afternoon and evening. If these thunderstorms occur they may be slow moving in nature, with localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 5 to 15mm in diameter possible. Also, there is a very low risk that hail accumulations may become significant.

thunderstormOutlookImage.png

[Chris W]

Haven't seen any sign of a severe risk, the upper air isn't that cold and little shear but hopefully some inland isolated storms for folks to enjoy. Was thinking Wednesday also looks interesting but haven't really looked at the numbers.

[mikestormchaser]

Seems like a pretty good accurate chart up there richard from what i see to

[NZstorm]

Certainly got a trough there to encourage afternoon convection along the inland surface boundary. Looks like the type of set up that will produce a lot of cloud and precip as well so I am guessing messy from a chase point of view.

[mikestormchaser]

Certainly got a trough there to encourage afternoon convection along the inland surface boundary. Looks like the type of set up that will produce a lot of cloud and precip as well so I am guessing messy from a chase point of view.

Absolutely agree. Messy set up later on. Rain on the
Coastal plains later. Hard to chase any but will see how things go. Certainly didnt think it warranted taking the day off from work to chase. Ill save that for a big severe day

[Richard]

First signs of development now happening inland South Canterbury and to the south

[Awhituobs]

I am in Geraldine. Come find me at the country cafe John

[Awhituobs]

Met up John .showers developing inland from here:)

[Richard]

Looking good here to, developing to my east and to the south

[Chris W]

Been hot with little wind in Amberley up until about half an hour ago with cloud developing and wind picking up, assume that's the southeasterly change.

[tornado]

blitz picking up stikses already down there and some small cells are forming.

[mikestormchaser]

These cells will become embedded in rain. Its only problem with these types of set ups.
Cant beat the severe days where the set up is cold upper trough, and NE winds! Supercells

[Richard]

Was a NW wind up to 2.30 then suddenly a SE came through which will help storm development. Looking very dark to my north where most of the storms come from here.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

All over bar the shouting down here, sadly, with just layers of boring Sc around however it was good for a catch up with Brian today

[Awhituobs]

CHCH

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[Razor]

Having just driven home from lewis pass, I reckon somewhere inland of Chch is getting hammered by a significant cell right now that is being energized by that strong easterly. There's a tail of clouds feeding it from Chch to inland, looked very spectacular from the motorway. Sorry no pics, I was driving

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, there have been a couple of lightning strikes up that way, but nothing much with this event to get excited about, a real fizzer down here..
Roll on Wednesday and possibly this WE.

[Richard]

There was reports of lightning around Hanmer also, other than that nothing to exciting.