General November Weather

[tornado]

Looks like convergence showers continue for the first week of November. For north island.

[David]

Have next week off and keen to have a swim at Muriwai on one day, anyone want to suggest which day looks best (including this Sunday). My recent thoughts were Monday, which then shifted to this Sunday (which looks a tad warmer), but now Thursday is actually looking the best...

Due to how early it is in the season and marginal temperature wise for swimming, trying to avoid a day with breezy SW for example

[Cyclone Tracy]

Have next week off and keen to have a swim at Muriwai on one day, anyone want to suggest which day looks best (including this Sunday). My recent thoughts were Monday, which then shifted to this Sunday (which looks a tad warmer), but now Thursday is actually looking the best...

Due to how early it is in the season and marginal temperature wise for swimming, trying to avoid a day with breezy SW for example

At this stage, I would aim for Wednesday. Probably the most likely day for an east to north easterly flow into Muriwai and less chance of rain. Still 6 days out though

[Orion]

High tide at Muriwai 1:10pm Wednesday Nov. 4th:

https://magicseaweed.com/Muriwai-Beach- ... 4078/Tide/

[Cyclone Tracy]

GFS 00Z projecting a hybrid TUTT cell between Queensland and New Caledonia for mid next week. The break off upper cell will enhance surface convergence and rainfall above NZ soon afterwards. Models will get volatile in the next few days I'd say, with surface low pressure to the north of NZ fairly likely.

[spwill]

A moist flow spreads back onto NZ first week of November, will feel humid at times. No proper rain here for the last couple of weeks, any showers or rain will be welcome

[David]

At this stage, I would aim for Wednesday. Probably the most likely day for an east to north easterly flow into Muriwai and less chance of rain. Still 6 days out though

And now Wednesday looks like rain in the afternoon, it's been varying so much

[Richard]

Monday at this stage looking like there could be a dam good rain maker going by the MS chart

Monday.png

[Cyclone Tracy]

Polar vortex is loosen the belt with upper lows to start calling the shots. Multiple ensembles producing 3 cut off surface lows to effect NZ in the first 10 days from the North and South with the long wave trough lining up. Volatile first week or 2 of November is arriving.

[Orion]

Pretty pink sunset sky at the moment.
17.4°C.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A mild to a slightly milder day to start off the month here with today's maximum being 22.1C with a move back to westerly winds, however another dry southerly moved through after 6pm, but not with any stratus which was nice.

[David]

Went to Muriwai and had a swim today. Water was cool but felt more like December temps.

[NZstorm]

We might get lucky with a random heavy shower over Auckland later in the day but more likely in the west. Tomorrow looks more like random drizzle with a NE wind.

[tornado]

We might get lucky with a random heavy shower over Auckland later in the day but more likely in the west. Tomorrow looks more like random drizzle with a NE wind.

chance of a isolated thundrstorm for the far north but metservice has the moderate risk down to northern auckland. yes rain this week yah. guy fawkes night will be RAINED OUT BUT KNOWING MY LUCK PEOPLE WILL STILL SET OFF FIREWORKS LIKE 2013

[Awhituobs]

23.9C here just now
thats a record November temperature for me here

[spwill]

Radar shows a crop of heat showers heading south onto north Auckland from Kaipara region.

Been a fine day here with some high cloud, a little on the humid side with dps up to 16C.

[Awhituobs]

ohhhh, we might get that group of showers here

[cbm]

23C with sun and not a breath of wind at 6:45pm tonight. Got a sweat on biking home from work. Last year did have a very warm spell this same week, but this warmth is way longer lasting.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[David]

Modelling looking great for good rainfall late week, best since August perhaps

[spwill]

A humid evening for the time of year here , dp is 17C, temp 18-19C at 10pm.
The moist air hangs around to help set up for a period of wet weather from Thursday

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A cloudy and dull today with southerlies dying out early this morning, tending a light easterly for much of the day.
16.5C for today.

[Awhituobs]

was like a mid summer evening here.
weird

[David]

18.2C min here overnight, felt like January. My highest daily minimum record for November is 17.8, so if it stays above that until midnight there's another record...

[Awhituobs]

crazy
the much warmer than normal sea temperatures around the North Island is the key
it means the warm air mass moving down from the north is not cooling as much

[NZstorm]

GFS total rainfall for next 15 days. Looks wet for the North Island and upper South Island.