General November Weather

Archive of NZ Weather and Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by tornado »

Yes although according to niwa tommorows low is la Nina ish. December is usually a mixed bag of weather.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Interesting weather, I hope, coming up to make up for the boring weather for today and possibly tomorrow. :-w
It is interesting however, how the thunderstorm on Saturday night, blew out the weather here, boring since.
Today, it only got up to 14C with cloudy skies and ENE winds.
JohnGaul
NZThS
harleyb
Posts: 219
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 257 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by harleyb »

Presumably the jet stream is behind this low popping up in the last couple of GFS runs. The latest run has certainly cranked it up a few notches from the earlier one. Could be interesting if it verifies though still it's a few days away of course.
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

I really don't want to get overexcited but for me Friday afternoon is looking good still for coastal Canterbury for a storm/hail risk, maybe low risk severe going by GFS. Could go offshore however.

Yes Harley, west coast looks in for a pounding on Saturday if that moisture level and flow verifies. Reasonably wet for the North Island also.
2020-11-25 13_25_27-Window.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Chris W on Wed 25/11/2020 13:26, edited 1 time in total.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 355 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Chris W wrote: Wed 25/11/2020 11:09 I really don't want to get overexcited but for me Friday afternoon is looking good still for coastal Canterbury for a storm/hail risk, maybe low risk severe going by GFS. Could go offshore
Yes a low/ moderare risk friday Canterbury PM.
Hint of onshore light NE proceeds late upper tough fri evening. Again something to keep eye on
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Looks from GFS and the MS 3-day rainfall to possibly start around 3-4pm to me, some NE/W convergence before the main trough crosses?
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Chris W wrote: Wed 25/11/2020 11:09

Yes Harley, west coast looks in for a pounding on Saturday if that moisture level and flow verifies. Reasonably wet for the North Island also.
Coming up 1 year anniversary since such a pounding literally cut the South Island in half
Christchurch Rocks
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

The March one?
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Chris W wrote: Wed 25/11/2020 13:19 The March one?
No the December one.... this one which we'll never forget, which was a week or so after that amazing hail storm in Timaru
viewtopic.php?f=34&t=6074

We went to Timaru for a daytrip that Saturday, watched the main trunk rail line blow out before our eyes as the Rangitata burst its banks, and we didn't get home for 4 days. No one did!
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Also spotted Friday, definitely a moderate risk for me seems to be some local convergences and good moisture about.
Not big on the instability numbers but good upper forcing and - 28c upper air, could bring isolated severe hail.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Ah yeah Razor, with you now!

Heavy shower there just now in Lyttelton, punctuating the heavy drizzle of the evening. This is it for the next day or so here.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Interesting day here weather-wise.
What was expected to be a boring and overcast day with clagg/drizzle, turned out to be an interesting day with watery Cu clouds and the odd sunshine peaking through, resulting in warmth with steam coming off the roads/roofs. after a shower. moving through.
Light winds from the SW for most of the day, even though showers and cloud movement was from the North to NE until when the downpour passed through, it reverted to a NE flow
Highlight was the torrential downpour which moved through around 4:15pm, delivering 5mm of rain in about 5 minutes from today's rainfall total of 8.2mm. No lightning or hail just heavy rain with very thick raindrops.
Cloud eventually clearing away this evening and becoming fine.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by NZ Thunderstorm Soc on Wed 25/11/2020 22:53, edited 1 time in total.
JohnGaul
NZThS
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by tornado »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Wed 25/11/2020 22:46 Interesting day here weather-wise.
What was expected to be a boring and overcast day with clagg/drizzle, turned out to be an interesting day with watery Cu clouds and the odd sunshine peaking through, resulting in warmth with steam coming off the roads/roofs. after a shower. moving through.
Light winds from the SW for most of the day, even though showers and cloud movement was from the North to NE until when the downpour passed through, it reverted to a NE flow
Highlight was the torrential downpour which moved through around 4:15pm, delivering 5mm of rain in about 5 minutes from today's rainfall total of 8.2mm. No lightning or hail just heavy rain with very thick raindrops.
Cloud eventually clearing away this evening and becoming fine.
Nice cb like the ones around here today.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice cb like the ones around here today.
[/quote]
Yes. There one or 2 forms around here like that but generally a messy sky this afternoon, here.
Another photo I took of cloud to the west and you can see steam coming off the neighbours roof.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

mikestormchaser wrote: Wed 25/11/2020 11:56 Yes a low/ moderare risk friday Canterbury PM.
Hint of onshore light NE proceeds late upper tough fri evening. Again something to keep eye on
Hi Mikey.
Yes Friday looks good and also Monday might have the probabilities, judging what last Saturday night brought us to Geraldine.
JohnGaul
NZThS
treetop
Posts: 316
Joined: Sun 04/02/2007 20:29
Location: katikati
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by treetop »

Hard to believe its La Nina. looking ahead 2 weeks mostly westerly and little rain forcast for us northerners. 30mm near Tauranga last few days , no thunder
ttttttttttt
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by spwill »

A lot of breezy weather for NZ next week, pattern looks more like El Nino. An easing up of the westerlies by the end of the first week of December.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Richard »

First of the inland Malbourgh storms for the summer today
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

That intense rainfall for the coast on Sunday isn't showing up on the UKMO output/Metservice rain charts, reasonable amount on Saturday and some more on Monday, but not enough to make coasters bat an eyelid.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Partly cloudy day with light NE breezes. Today's maximum being 23.2C.
The partly cloudy weather clearing away later this afternoon with thin high cloud increasing from the west.
Calm evening.
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by David »

Picked up 6mm of showers from midday yesterday until this morning, pushing the monthly total to 100mm :)
Image
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

wow for once you got more rain than me LOL
193 mm here for November
its very green here,,,lots of grass (which is going to seed)
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Only 87mm for the month here. Good to get that much but still not enough


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by tornado »

Weak cold front pushing through with showers now
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General November Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A rather wet day here, especially this afternoon with a total of 23.9mm of rain falling for today.
A rather cool day with the fire going. Today's maximum was just 13.3C before the southerly change came through around 8:30am.
Sitting around the 11C mark for much of the day.
Rain easing from about 7pm.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Locked