NZ Weather Forum

Posted: **Mon 23/11/2020 21:36**

Yes although according to niwa tommorows low is la Nina ish. December is usually a mixed bag of weather.

Posted: **Mon 23/11/2020 22:19**

Interesting weather, I hope, coming up to make up for the boring weather for today and possibly tomorrow.

It is interesting however, how the thunderstorm on Saturday night, blew out the weather here, boring since.
Today, it only got up to 14C with cloudy skies and ENE winds.

Posted: **Tue 24/11/2020 19:34**

Presumably the jet stream is behind this low popping up in the last couple of GFS runs. The latest run has certainly cranked it up a few notches from the earlier one. Could be interesting if it verifies though still it's a few days away of course.

image.png

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 11:09**

I really don't want to get overexcited but for me Friday afternoon is looking good still for coastal Canterbury for a storm/hail risk, maybe low risk severe going by GFS. Could go offshore however.

Yes Harley, west coast looks in for a pounding on Saturday if that moisture level and flow verifies. Reasonably wet for the North Island also.

2020-11-25 13_25_27-Window.png

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 11:56**

Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 25/11/2020 11:09 I really don't want to get overexcited but for me Friday afternoon is looking good still for coastal Canterbury for a storm/hail risk, maybe low risk severe going by GFS. Could go offshore

Yes a low/ moderare risk friday Canterbury PM.
Hint of onshore light NE proceeds late upper tough fri evening. Again something to keep eye on

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 12:04**

Looks from GFS and the MS 3-day rainfall to possibly start around 3-4pm to me, some NE/W convergence before the main trough crosses?

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 12:14**

Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 25/11/2020 11:09

Yes Harley, west coast looks in for a pounding on Saturday if that moisture level and flow verifies. Reasonably wet for the North Island also.

Coming up 1 year anniversary since such a pounding literally cut the South Island in half

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 13:19**

The March one?

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 13:52**

Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 25/11/2020 13:19 The March one?

No the December one.... this one which we'll never forget, which was a week or so after that amazing hail storm in Timaru
viewtopic.php?f=34&t=6074

We went to Timaru for a daytrip that Saturday, watched the main trunk rail line blow out before our eyes as the Rangitata burst its banks, and we didn't get home for 4 days. No one did!

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 21:31**

Also spotted Friday, definitely a moderate risk for me seems to be some local convergences and good moisture about.
Not big on the instability numbers but good upper forcing and - 28c upper air, could bring isolated severe hail.

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 22:41**

Ah yeah Razor, with you now!

Heavy shower there just now in Lyttelton, punctuating the heavy drizzle of the evening. This is it for the next day or so here.

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 22:46**

Interesting day here weather-wise.
What was expected to be a boring and overcast day with clagg/drizzle, turned out to be an interesting day with watery Cu clouds and the odd sunshine peaking through, resulting in warmth with steam coming off the roads/roofs. after a shower. moving through.
Light winds from the SW for most of the day, even though showers and cloud movement was from the North to NE until when the downpour passed through, it reverted to a NE flow
Highlight was the torrential downpour which moved through around 4:15pm, delivering 5mm of rain in about 5 minutes from today's rainfall total of 8.2mm. No lightning or hail just heavy rain with very thick raindrops.
Cloud eventually clearing away this evening and becoming fine.

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 22:54**

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 25/11/2020 22:46 Interesting day here weather-wise.
What was expected to be a boring and overcast day with clagg/drizzle, turned out to be an interesting day with watery Cu clouds and the odd sunshine peaking through, resulting in warmth with steam coming off the roads/roofs. after a shower. moving through.
Light winds from the SW for most of the day, even though showers and cloud movement was from the North to NE until when the downpour passed through, it reverted to a NE flow
Highlight was the torrential downpour which moved through around 4:15pm, delivering 5mm of rain in about 5 minutes from today's rainfall total of 8.2mm. No lightning or hail just heavy rain with very thick raindrops.
Cloud eventually clearing away this evening and becoming fine.

Nice cb like the ones around here today.

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 23:20**

Nice cb like the ones around here today.
[/quote]
Yes. There one or 2 forms around here like that but generally a messy sky this afternoon, here.
Another photo I took of cloud to the west and you can see steam coming off the neighbours roof.

Posted: **Wed 25/11/2020 23:29**

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 25/11/2020 11:56 Yes a low/ moderare risk friday Canterbury PM.
Hint of onshore light NE proceeds late upper tough fri evening. Again something to keep eye on

Hi Mikey.
Yes Friday looks good and also Monday might have the probabilities, judging what last Saturday night brought us to Geraldine.

Posted: **Thu 26/11/2020 07:44**

Hard to believe its La Nina. looking ahead 2 weeks mostly westerly and little rain forcast for us northerners. 30mm near Tauranga last few days , no thunder

Posted: **Thu 26/11/2020 09:08**

A lot of breezy weather for NZ next week, pattern looks more like El Nino. An easing up of the westerlies by the end of the first week of December.

Posted: **Thu 26/11/2020 16:38**

First of the inland Malbourgh storms for the summer today

Posted: **Thu 26/11/2020 22:21**

That intense rainfall for the coast on Sunday isn't showing up on the UKMO output/Metservice rain charts, reasonable amount on Saturday and some more on Monday, but not enough to make coasters bat an eyelid.

Posted: **Thu 26/11/2020 22:25**

Partly cloudy day with light NE breezes. Today's maximum being 23.2C.
The partly cloudy weather clearing away later this afternoon with thin high cloud increasing from the west.
Calm evening.

Posted: **Fri 27/11/2020 09:26**

Picked up 6mm of showers from midday yesterday until this morning, pushing the monthly total to 100mm

Posted: **Fri 27/11/2020 10:22**

wow for once you got more rain than me LOL
193 mm here for November
its very green here,,,lots of grass (which is going to seed)

Posted: **Fri 27/11/2020 17:41**

Only 87mm for the month here. Good to get that much but still not enough

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Posted: **Fri 27/11/2020 20:16**

Weak cold front pushing through with showers now

Posted: **Fri 27/11/2020 22:26**

A rather wet day here, especially this afternoon with a total of 23.9mm of rain falling for today.
A rather cool day with the fire going. Today's maximum was just 13.3C before the southerly change came through around 8:30am.
Sitting around the 11C mark for much of the day.
Rain easing from about 7pm.

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