Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

[Cyclone Tracy]

Another few mm overnight, up to 34mm now. Polar streamer currently launching into NSW and about to cut off, low number 2 isn't far away from developing further. Strong upper trough now moving up from the Southern ocean.

[David]

Went walking at hunua today. Water was quite muddy. Gauge at Mangatangi showed 93mm for the event. Just 28 for me after an extra 4mm overnight.

[Peter]

... underground water tanks from 37% full to 77% full with this last system - ~ 12,000 litres more available for the summer garden now ...

[tornado]

34mm so far looking forward to possible thunder tommorow

[spwill]

I'm picking the weakness in the thunderstorm set ups around here lately has been lack of good lifting mechanism. The sea breeze season always helps with this when it properly arrives.

[tornado]

The front at the moment is really lightning active. That might make it here tonight.

[NZstorm]

The front at the moment is really lightning active. That might make it here tonight.

Yes, good to see the front firing this morning. A strong 500mb shortwave and surface dp's of 16-17C behind the lightning. That moisture modeled to track across the western and upper North Island tonight!

The cold pool early week over the North Island something to watch!

[Nev]

I'm guessing MS's 'low risk of one or two small weak tornadoes' this evening includes the odd waterspout? ...

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 9:27am Saturday 7 Nov 2020
Valid to Midnight Saturday 7 Nov 2020

A deepening low over the north Tasman Sea will move southeast towards New Zealand during today and should lie west of central New Zealand at midnight. An associated frontal rain-band moves onto the northern North Island late afternoon and evening, preceded by a warm humid northerly flow.

Ahead of the front, isolated heavy showers are likely to develop about western and northern parts of Northland, Auckland and Waikato in the afternoon, and there is a moderate risk of one or two of these developing into thunderstorms with brief heavy rain.

As the front moves onto the northern North Island from late afternoon and into the evening, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms associated with this front throughout Northland in the evening, then spreading down to Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui and Taranaki during the evening and at night. There is also a lower risk of a few storms associated with the front further south and east as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain with rates mostly of 10 to 25 mm/h, and possibly more in localised places. There is also the possibility with some of these storms of strong winds gusting 80 to 100 km/h and a low risk of one or two small weak tornadoes.

In addition, there is a moderate risk for isolated thunderstorms around the Tararua District for a time this afternoon and early evening, bringing a risk of localised heavy rain with rates of 10 to 20 mm/h.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand on Saturday.

MetService T-storm Outlook - Nov 7, 9.20am.png

[tornado]

I'm guessing MS's 'low risk of one or two small weak tornadoes' this evening includes the odd waterspout? ...

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 9:27am Saturday 7 Nov 2020
Valid to Midnight Saturday 7 Nov 2020

A deepening low over the north Tasman Sea will move southeast towards New Zealand during today and should lie west of central New Zealand at midnight. An associated frontal rain-band moves onto the northern North Island late afternoon and evening, preceded by a warm humid northerly flow.

Ahead of the front, isolated heavy showers are likely to develop about western and northern parts of Northland, Auckland and Waikato in the afternoon, and there is a moderate risk of one or two of these developing into thunderstorms with brief heavy rain.

As the front moves onto the northern North Island from late afternoon and into the evening, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms associated with this front throughout Northland in the evening, then spreading down to Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui and Taranaki during the evening and at night. There is also a lower risk of a few storms associated with the front further south and east as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain with rates mostly of 10 to 25 mm/h, and possibly more in localised places. There is also the possibility with some of these storms of strong winds gusting 80 to 100 km/h and a low risk of one or two small weak tornadoes.

In addition, there is a moderate risk for isolated thunderstorms around the Tararua District for a time this afternoon and early evening, bringing a risk of localised heavy rain with rates of 10 to 20 mm/h.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand on Saturday.


MetService T-storm Outlook - Nov 7, 9.20am.png

Looks nice and blitz shows it nicly. I winder about the waterspout risk too

[Cyclone Tracy]

My dew point has just reached 19c.

[cbm]

Skies cleared very suddenly about 3:30pm here which will be adding heat to the ground ahead of the front.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[tornado]

I'm losing hope cloudy and lightning decreasing dam it

[Awhituobs]

rain for Canty currently I see

[tornado]

Raining heavy here no thunder. Thunder hit Northland though. First half next week has more thunder risks

[Cyclone Tracy]

Thunder

[David]

Deep distant thunder here.

[spwill]

Lightning flash and thunder here just now

[tornado]

Yes I'm too far south to hear the thunder at the he no nope just had a distant rumble yay

[Razor]

Rain, glorious rain! 🌧 3 whole mm so far, hoping for 10 times that by tomorrow night

[Nev]

Lightning and thunder heard here.

[David]

And right on cue... radar down?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

rain for Canty currently I see

Yes, Brian, looking very wet down there. Up here in Blenheim it has been a sort of day looking threatening but rain keeping off for our gardening tours up here in the Marlborough area, however it may rain tomorrow for the big garden fete here tomorrow.

[David]

Rain rate hit 140mm/hr momentarily

[tornado]

Good rumble heard here now about time

[Awhituobs]

strikes

strikesnov.png