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Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Wed 04/11/2020 20:13
by Cyclone Tracy
Let’s see where this thread takes us. 3 surface and upper cut off lows, multiple surface and upper troughs over the next 6 days across the country. Rain, storms and wind is in order. 1st cab off the rank is a subtropical low that moves into the North Island region tomorrow. Models suggest this will be the most widespread rainfall week in a long time.
Image is GFS rainfall over the next 6 days.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Wed 04/11/2020 20:17
by tornado
Bring it on hopefully natural fireworks aka thunderstorms in the mix as well. Haha
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 07:58
by NZstorm
Todays rainfall totals according to the latest run of EU for the wider Auckland region. Yes, hopefully a thunderstorm in the mix as well.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 08:58
by tornado
Moderate rain starting now. Was supposed to be having fireworks with family but that can wait till tomorrow. If a thunderstorm is occurring or still raining tonight. But people will still set fireworks off. Anyway
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 09:07
by Nev
For posterity... (like where MS have got their arrow pointing...lol)
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 8:44am Thursday 5 Nov 2020
Valid to Midnight Thursday 5 Nov 2020
A low and associated rain-band will move southwards over northern and central New Zealand today, while other rain-bands affect the South Island west coast, and also the southern South Island later today. Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are in force for many parts of northern New Zealand, and also Westland and the Southern Alps.
In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms is either behind or on the back edge of the northern rain-band as it moves southwards. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Northland this afternoon and evening, about Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty this evening or tonight, and eastern Bay of Plenty tonight. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by rainfall rates of 15-25mm/h (or possibly more).
In the South Island, a southerly wind change is likely to produce a few thunderstorms this afternoon about parts of Otago, mainly inland and in North Otago, with a broader lower risk as indicated on the chart. There is also a low risk of a few embedded thunderstorms about the Westland ranges this morning and afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur in these areas will be accompanied by localised heavy rain.
No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand today.
MetService T-storm Outlook - Nov 5, 8.42am.png
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 09:16
by spwill
Hopefully a thunderstorm can be generated in our area this evening, plenty of instability showing this evening.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 09:19
by tornado
spwill wrote: ↑Thu 05/11/2020 09:16
Hopefully a thunderstorm can be generated in our area this evening, plenty of instability showing this evening.
If there is lightning and thunder then it will be a good guy fawkes fireworks show in the sky lol. Yes good instability tonight.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 09:29
by Chris W
This is your PV meets Nina moment CT, sparks starting to fly.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 11:52
by David
Great rain for soaking in to the ground, up to 9mm so far.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 11:52
by Cyclone Tracy
East to north easterly is picking up here. Now up to 13mm. (edit 20mm now)
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 13:31
by Nev
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 13:57
by tornado
not surprised. papamoa had a tornado in june due to a suptropical low so not surprised really.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 14:00
by Awhituobs
24mm for us so far.great
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 14:05
by tornado
25mm here. good old rain. yay. a good guy fawkes rain lol
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 15:19
by David
Early clearance on radar? Thought we were expecting the worst of it this evening. 22mm of moderate rain here today
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 16:07
by tornado
What do anyone reakon about tonight's thunder chance?
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 16:13
by Cyclone Tracy
29.4mm locally. A very nice drop for the 1st round, would expect more showers early tomorrow morning when the low drags south. Convergence zone peaked off the gulf into SE Auckland. 126mm for Clevedon and importantly 76mm so far at Mangatangi Dam.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 16:25
by David
Not sure I believe that 126 reading? Highest I can see anywhere close to that location on Wunderground is approx 40mm (and nothing particularly heavy ever showed on the radar either...)
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 16:36
by Cyclone Tracy
There is also a 99mm at a PWS on the North Shore at Greenhithe, 84mm Albany, there was plenty of moisture aloft so isolated downpours were possible. Mangatangi dam now at 80mm.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 17:30
by Awhituobs
Manukau heights
20201105_172325.jpg
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 17:42
by NZstorm
32mm in Grey Lynn.
An isolated cb/ts still on the cards this evening if there is decent enough convergence.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 17:56
by David
59km/h gust this afternoon is the highest on my station since mid July. Not been a lot of windy weather the last few months as is often typical in Spring.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 20:15
by Cyclone Tracy
Some bubbling clouds on sunset over the Tasman as the low wraps around. Starting to show up on radar to the west of Auckland slowly heading east.
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Thu 05/11/2020 20:43
by wre1991
93mm in Waihi
Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov
Posted: Fri 06/11/2020 08:01
by Nev
Looks like T-storms fired up around the inland East Cape area earlier this morning, along with a few around inland south Otago yesterday afternoon.
39mm here in the last 30 hrs or so, and a few branches down around the island by the looks.